Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

[lilrascal]

Yup, this is true.

I suppose the best way to clear a pair of villagers is to ensure that they are both on wolf wagons... possibly both on multiple wolf wagons.

This leads me to another question:

Is it in the villages best interest to have pairs double vote for the same player?

Just throwing it out there. I haven't given it any thought.

With regards to the above, this strategy almost always leads to a wolf win.

If every team votes as a pair, then half the votes are being influenced by a wolf on D1. If we get a mislynch on D1, then the wolves would hold way too much sway over the vote from D2 on.

[BankItDrew]

I think (3) should read:

(3) 2 w/w partnerships, 6 v/v partnerships.

[BankItDrew]

If every team votes as a pair, then half the votes are being influenced by a wolf on D1.

This is assuming that all 4 wolves are split up into 4 different pairings. Even then, they each only have a 50% input to convince their lover to side with them.

[lilrascal]

I think (3) should read:

(3) 2 w/w partnerships, 6 v/v partnerships.

You are correct.

This is assuming that all 4 wolves are split up into 4 different pairings. Even then, they each only have a 50% input to convince their lover to side with them.

True, but I was looking at it from a worst case standpoint for the village. If there is some w/w partnerships, then that helps the village imo, since we get 2 for 1 in a lynch.

[BankItDrew]

A W/W pairing is definitely best for the village.

In past games, when the village lynches a villager - another villager dies at night via nom. When the village lynches a wolf, a villager dies at night via nom.

Here, if the village binks a W/W pairing, two wolves die and zero villagers die.

I think asking JKDS how the pairings were chosen is a fair question. A "none of your god damned business" response doesn't make sense from a mods perspective imo.

[wufwugy]

Do you read shit over before you post or do you just click the button? You think that playing with hidden partners is equal to playing in a regular game and lynching with your eyes closed? Stop trying to make it seem that us lynching without a partner reveal means we don't know who we're lynching.

but that's exactly what it means. every lynch is two players, without exception

you're suggesting it is better that we choose one player to kill and let the other die by surprise instead of choosing which two players are the best to kill.

[BankItDrew]

you're suggesting it is better that we choose one player to kill and let the other die by surprise instead of choosing which two players are the best to kill.

100%

Your efforts are futile.

[wufwugy]

zero? sounds like wolves have agreed in the den that they'd prefer to have perfect information.

thank you for making my point for me. do you not see how if you believe this, you must also believe it is better for the village to know exactly who we're lynching?

you cant have your cake and eat it too. you cant on the one hand say it's info for the wolves but on the other say it's not info for the village. regardless i dont see how it's much info for the wolves but i do see how it's loads of info for the village. the wolves already know who they're linked to. they won't be caught by surprise. the village is what gains by knowing exactly who's dying when a lynch is reached, not the wolves

lol at the fucking idea y'all have where it's better to have half of our lynches be of unknowns. am i the only sane person here? well and bid. everybody else seems to have lost their brains on the floor

one of these games im going to say only utterly stupid things. then we will win as easy as can be since everybody always disagrees with my points no matter how correct they are. yeah i get a lot of stuff wrong. yeah i rallied hard to lynch the angel the last game. yeah i rallied hard to lynch a reg villager last game. yeah i defended ongwolf last game. but this is a whole different level. i am stating basic facts about how this game functions statistically. this should be the least controversial thing of all time.

i call bullshit. Wuf normally claims some savant-like ability to make clutch reads in endgame spots, yet here he's claiming that this type of read is inappropriate in this game? something doesn't gel right here. he's setting up for lynching the other team. What he doesn't seem to consider is that the end-game is always going to be two couples, so by his logic it's simply the first couple to have both log in to cement the lynch.

my early game reads are always simplistic. early game is when the most reliable reads are things that are overt. this is exactly what got ong lynched d1 last game. it's what got baud lynched d1 when he was a wolf. all d1 lynches have little information behind them and are for the simplistic purposes, like post count or some weird stylistic thing

[BankItDrew]

Pretty sure the village has gone full retard on this reveal topic. Never go full retard.

[wufwugy]

Your statistics assume the final 4 are random variables about which there is no background information.

the statistics assume a standard amount of information, which is the standard thing to assume

keep in mind i have not suggested people play a certain way. i have merely stated facts that everybody should agree with: villagers will be very unlikely to bold their partners since the probability of catching a wolf when doing so dramatically drops, and that since every lynch is automatically for two specific players, it necessarily means we should know who those two players are. a bold for one player is no less a bold for that player's link. we should be lynching the links of players that we think provide the most value, not the individuals while crossing our fingers that his link is also a good death

Now drop this hand-waving charade of distracting from hunting, and start hunting.
All this talk is not helping the village find any wolves or even other villagers.

says the guy who would prefer that half the deaths are unknowns

as long as the best info we have is about half of each chosen lynch, the best kind of bold you're going to get out of me is a simplistic one. besides, this is d1 and you know for a fact i have said many times that i dont think killing wolves d1 helps the village. i think it's when you get rid of people who are either playing weirdly or are shitty for the endgame. my bold is in a great spot, yours is on the person trying to create clarity

[Keybored]

Wow.
Lynch WufWugy
...and his mini me, Hoppy.

[JKDS]

Mod Corner

Vote Count!

Wufwugy (4): Madmojomonkey, Daven, Ongbonga, Keybored
Luco (2): a500lbgorilla, Bankitdrew
Boog (2): Luco, Gabe
Ongbonga (1): Rong
Bigred (1): Baudib
Monstrman (1): Wufwugy
Not voting: Where do you think this is, Mesopotamia? The birthplace of recording writings? C'mon.

Q & A

Q: Your numbers are wrong.
A: Who are you, Gaymond Babbitt? (From Rainman? God, watch a film!) Should read 12 ISIS, and 4 KGB.

Q: How was the game created?
A: Your question is not recognized in fort Kick-Ass. But the number of W-V pairs was predetermined.

Q: How many V-W pairs?
A: It is either 0, 2, or 4. Wah Wah.

Deadline in under 2 Days. (These will get specific when there <1 day remaining)

[BankItDrew]

A: Who are you, Gaymond Babbitt? (From Rainman? God, watch a film!) Should read 12 ISIS, and 4 KGB.

Raymond Babbitt*
Rain Man*

The number of pairs were predetermined.

Me thinks the wolves are all split up.

[gabe]

there could easily be reasons not to post your partner. but i could see where daven and wuf would have opposite opinions and neither be wolves

boog had some wofly "tone" stuff so im sticking on him

[Luco]

I think this 'reveal or nay' has provided a great way for people to appear active without actually hunting. This is an argument for revealing I guess.

there could easily be reasons not to post your partner. but i could see where daven and wuf would have opposite opinions and neither be wolves

boog had some wofly "tone" stuff so im sticking on him

+v point, mostly ignoring this farce of a debate and voting based on tone instead of voting because disagree with x's logic like some people have been doing

[BankItDrew]

Lmao @ Luco accusing players of pretending to help. Fantastic work you've done today.

I don't care if it's bad or good, pro village or not.

Fantastic work.

[Luco]

Blah blah blah use your other hole to talk

[BankItDrew]

Let's try this instead:

Who do you think is a wolf and why?

[Luco]

Let's try this instead:

Who do you think is a wolf and why?

Finally speaking my language

You mojo rilla ong all sounding very villa

gabe & boog leaning v too

rescind boog

I think one of wuf / daven is a wolf and I'm not convinced it's wuf

loads of null chatter about reveals, eg rascal is talking about nothing else so I got nothin on him yet. Same with bigred

rong, monstr, keybored and hoopy all hanging back, wolf or wolves in there methinks. Baudib is mega quiet but he's unafraid as a wolf so that's not even a tell

Who have I missed

[Hoopy]

this

i see zero value in keeping partners hidden. every lynch includes automatic death of the partner. let's be real, none of us are gonna vote to lynch our partners. this is really just a game of "which two players do we want to die". even in a 3v1 situation, it is always correct to not vote your partner since you know that 50% of the deaths in the lynch are village

it's me n teh hoopster

Can confirm, wugums & hoopz 4 ever <3

[Hoopy]

I see wuf is leading the votes which isn't great for me.

I'm gonna go actually read the thread and see what's been happening.

[Hoopy]

Wow.
Lynch WufWugy
...and his mini me, Hoppy.

Fuck you son!

[monstrman]

Meh I'm still a villager here, just not as interested in ww as I used to be.

This is prolly gonna be my last game anyway

Didn't realize rascal was in this game too, hi rascal.

I'm fairly confident that BID is V.

I am worried about breaking the rules to state why... here goes.

Our choice of communication, and a recent mistake made by BID lead me to believe that he is not using that form of communication in more than one capacity.

Therefore BID is not using wolfchat.

I hesitate to state other factors, such as timing that lead me to believe this read is solid.

***
I'm leaning V on rilla for the reasons ong stated.

I'm also on the fence about whether or not it's good if everyone outs, but I'm in a shitty spot since I'm already outed.

I don't understand this logic. What recent mistake by BID made all this so obvious?

[Hoopy]

No specials means only tone reads as wagons won't be particularly telling.

I'm betting the wolves aren't pair-bonded together even though that'd be the best of all scenarios.

OP lists 16 people, but has 14 villagers and 4 wolves (for 18), assuming a typo that's 8 pairs.

All wolves with another villager, 4 v-v pairs, 4 w-v pairs. Even though you know your own role, you don't know the value of your life with 100% confidence. Given nothing but tone reads to go off of, villagers are at worst .5 villagers, and at best .9 villagers as they can never really know for sure what their partner's role is.

Hopefully there's one complete w-w pair, so we can stumble into something as a village, otherwise it's a complete guess-fest brought to you by strained tone reads and wacky slip-analysis.

In a game where information is precious, the village can have more information. This is objectively good.

It's like you have no concept of how easy your imagination can get in your way - how easily you could missread any number of situations along these lines.

Versus cold, hard information.

rilla makes a decent case, this feels like villager rilla trying to lead the village. Idk need to think this through more.

i wasn't planning on talking to Rilla until I was fairly convinced he was a villager.

I am leaning that way for sure now but word to other villagers: Be very careful. I was in a large mash where there was a W-V masonry and it was devastating to the village. The villager was totally bamboozled and sold the rest of the village on his partner being a villager.

Trust no one.

Indeed, what do you think about revealing pairs? Sorry if you've already said.

Wolves have obv revealed their fuckbuddys in den. But they don't know the rest. Wouldn't it benefit them if they could take out the strongest pair first? In lieu of Special hunting, all they have to strat about is rank order of lynching. Why would we give them that knowledge?

Good point actually, villager points for keybored.

It's my birthday now. In fact, I was born exactly 36 years ago, to the hour.

Happy Birthday Wrongbungo.

[OngBonga]

Blah blah blah.

I'm doing very little today.

[Hoopy]

I don't understand this logic. What recent mistake by BID made all this so obvious?

Careful, JKDS didn't like that post by MMM. Got to avoid anything to do with PM's.

Mod Corner

To be Crystal Clear: ONLY in game messages may EVER be used to support an alignment claim.

Use this test:If your partner could say "I didn't say that", or "that's not what happened" , then you shouldn't post it. The only exception is their name, and the role/alignment they claim.

Examples

Modkillable: Gator said (exact quote, paraphrase, gist) in our couples chat.
Modkillable: Gator seems villagery because he threatened my momma in couples chat.

Permitted: I think Gator is a villager, based on talking with him.
Permitted: I think Gator is a wolf, look at in game thread posts 1, 2, and 3! Also, I just feel it.

[Hoopy]

Looking at the post counts only baudib stands out slightly as he normally races ong for top poster.

Revealed Pairs
wuf - Hoopy
baudib - rilla
MMM - BID

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't understand this logic. What recent mistake by BID made all this so obvious?

Careful, JKDS didn't like that post by MMM. Got to avoid anything to do with PM's.

I'm PM'ing my response to JKDS for permission before posting.

[rong]

Nothing had happened by the time I went to bed. Now there's 6 pages. Da fuq?

[OngBonga]

I don't think it matters. Drew is a villager because he's a shit liar, and he knows it. So, when he's a wolf, he prefers to not be at the forefront of village discussion. Here, he's as active as I am. He's an eager villager.

[rong]

100 posts in. Sharing partners allows the wolves to target x knowing it will kill y.

Not sharing now Could give great info later when we see player x is giving village lean on player y to potentially keep his partner alive.


I'm against sharing.

[rong]

Sharing partners day 1 is akin to village specials outing day 1 imo.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I think this 'reveal or nay' has provided a great way for people to appear active without actually hunting. This is an argument for revealing I guess.



+v point, mostly ignoring this farce of a debate and voting based on tone instead of voting because disagree with x's logic like some people have been doing

:/

Top part is a soft push to reveal. If you want reveal, then say it openly.
Or maybe you're just adding an argument to the pile?
Seems like a distraction.

***
+v point is to gabe's #239

For the record, I don't disagree with wuf's logic. I disagree with his assumptions.

***
Having slept on the whole reveal thing:

I don't care how villagery a wolf's partner is. I don't care if the villager in the V-W pair is the strongest V and the wolf is the weakest W. I can not win as long as that W is alive. Sorry my bro V, but you can't win as long as you're alive.

[rong]

With no night kills this will be almost impossible to solve onceif all pairs are revealed before we've seen some voting and deaths. We're giving up all our information.

[Keybored]

Welcome, Ronk...Seems like you've summed it up well. You being agreeable as a concerned V or wagoning like a W? Got any other insights?

[Luco]

:/

Top part is a soft push to reveal. If you want reveal, then say it openly.
Or maybe you're just adding an argument to the pile?
Seems like a distraction.

So apparently I wasn't being clear. What I meant was, this chatter about reveal is pretty convenient cover and if everyone revealed we could at least move on from it. I don't actually want to reveal nor do I want any more discussion on revealing. I'd much rather just string someone up

[rong]

Luco, I've only read first 100 posts. Will read rest after swimming lessons.

[Luco]

Luco, I've only read first 100 posts. Will read rest after swimming lessons.

gl with your 10 meter badge!

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'd much rather just string someone up

Maybe try voting, then.

[a500lbgorilla]

Imagine that you had your sights set on a player who you believe to be a wolf 95% of the time. Damn fine read. But you don't know his partner.

Killing him will essentially also kill a random player. Randoms come in at 25% wolves on this fine day 1, meaning your overall tone read accounts for .6 dead wolf EV per corpse.

Now suppose you had some couple-a maybe wolves that you knew were linked. They'd just have to edge out a wolf rate of 3 in 5 each for it to be the better move.

Not revealing links is pro-wolf. If you keep yours a secret, you're hurting the greater cause.

Popular reasons against:

I don't know why we should.
I don't care.
I can't think of any reasons, but everyone should know better.
Man, isn't it like outing seers?

Think on it, friends.

Do the right thing.

[Luco]

Maybe try voting, then.

Bring back derpy funtimes mojo

[a500lbgorilla]

Reminder, the wolves already know every mislynch.

[a500lbgorilla]

This message brought to you by: Damn I love being right.

lynch Boog

[Keybored]

Maybe try voting, then.

Ouch! Nice jab.

[Luco]

Ouch! Nice jab.

It's funny because at the time I was reading through looking for something to grab on to but all I see is post after post of bickering over this stupid reveal. fuck wading through that.

[rong]

Rilla,

I'm pretty sure that before being lynched said partner would pipe up.

[a500lbgorilla]

Oh Luco. So pure, so innocent, so foolish.

[a500lbgorilla]

Rilla,

I'm pretty sure that before being lynched said partner would pipe up.

And then a scramble to find adjust to this info? Maybe finding another target without a known partner. Why wait?

[rong]

You're giving partners of strong villagers (by rep or by play) an easy ride.

[rong]

Your percentage argument above states that. At least if we don't know then we can't skew our own opinions.

[BankItDrew]

Your percentage argument above states that. At least if we don't know then we can't skew our own opinions.

If by skew you mean update based on new information, then sure.

[Luco]

Hey mojo, is it my turn to be the 'detestable specimen' this game?

Bloody arrogance

[Luco]

If you think I'm following your advice after your disgusting behaviour last game you're sorely mistaken

[BooG690]

Luco makes a point of saying the reveal argument is filler while providing nothing but filler himself.

So apparently I wasn't being clear. What I meant was, this chatter about reveal is pretty convenient cover and if everyone revealed we could at least move on from it. I don't actually want to reveal nor do I want any more discussion on revealing. I'd much rather just string someone up

Yet, his next few posts are junk posts. He's not adding up. This combined with the revenge bolds earlier makes me want to lynch Luco.

[BooG690]

Player ---- For or Against Outing
a500lbgorilla ---- For
LilRascal ---- Against
Keybored ---- Against
Ongbonga ---- Against
Gabe ---- No Comment
BID ---- For
Wufwugy ---- For
Rong ---- Against
Luco ---- Against
Boog ---- Against
Hoppy ---- Undecided
Baudib ---- No Comment
Monstrman ---- Hasn't Done a Goddamn Thing
Bigred ---- Against
MMM ---- Against
Daven ---- Against

Most players against understand that a reveal when on the chopping block is the best play. I don't know what to do with this information now but it'll be useful once we nab a wolf.

Hoopy here plays both sides of the argument and makes sure not to ruffle any feathers. That's basically all he's contributed. Lynching Wuf and Hoopy is the play here. Rescind Luco, Lynch Wuf

[BankItDrew]

I think wuf is a villager because he's so god damned right about the reveal.

Boog is stepping up his villager game nonetheless.

[baudib]

Couple things:
I've lost a lot of interest in playing werewolf. I found that WW interferes with my poker playing as well as life in general.
I spent 5 days at Borgata and crushed it, so I'm not too interested in sacrificing my poker game for WW (no money in WW, everyone solid)
I also had a dizzy/vertigo spell at work and spent 6 hours in the hospital yesterday.

I'll try to catch up. I'm still not impressed with Gabe.

[Luco]

Player ---- For or Against Outing
a500lbgorilla ---- For
LilRascal ---- Against
Keybored ---- Against
Ongbonga ---- Against
Gabe ---- No Comment
BID ---- For
Wufwugy ---- For
Rong ---- Against
Luco ---- Against
Boog ---- Against
Hoppy ---- Undecided
Baudib ---- No Comment
Monstrman ---- Hasn't Done a Goddamn Thing
Bigred ---- Against
MMM ---- Against
Daven ---- Against

Most players against understand that a reveal when on the chopping block is the best play. I don't know what to do with this information now but it'll be useful once we nab a wolf.

This is an exercise in futility. Wolves will likely take differing standpoints and so will villagers. It's not like being for or against is role indicative.

[a500lbgorilla]

This is an exercise in futility. Wolves will likely take differing standpoints and so will villagers. It's not like being for or against is role indicative.

All depends on who, what, where, when, and why. Plenty of tone to be reading.

[Luco]

I think thar be a wolf on wuf's wagon.

[Luco]

All depends on who, what, where, when, and why. Plenty of tone to be reading.

None of those things are covered by a for or against chart

[BooG690]

This is an exercise in futility. Wolves will likely take differing standpoints and so will villagers. It's not like being for or against is role indicative.

More empty blather while adding nothing.

[Luco]

lynch daven

[Luco]

More empty blather while adding nothing.

This is what I just accused you of.

[BooG690]

Funny how you left out the part where I find Hoopy to be playing both sides.

[a500lbgorilla]

Boog has yet to make a single sentence that leads me to believe he's a villager.

[a500lbgorilla]

Also, buadib is going to make me kill myself.

[baudib]

I think Boog could be a wolf here but I don't think I'm voting for him today.

Even if it weren't in my best interest to keep him alive, I'm pretty certain Rilla is a villager here. This is a major departure from his last gam as a wolf where he was basically AWOL and refused to be engaged.

[a500lbgorilla]

Or what if a scenario where the 2nd and 3rd wagons are linked but the village lynches a less optimal 1st choice because they're none the wiser?

[monstrman]

baudib why would you not vote someone you think is a wolf??

[Keybored]

So...Now we know: WUF+HOOPY -- BID+MMM -- RILLA+BAUD. Let's look at how this reveal situation evolved.

BID is first to act. Doesn't propose a discussion, makes a case for it. --Wolfy--

Everyone should state their character name from the TV show theme. As well as who their lover is.
It's within the rules and will also provide information.

Rilla doesn't want to jump off the cliff. --Villy--

Lead by example, bitch.

Luco opposes directly. --Villy--

How about no

Rilla gathering info. --Villy--

Why not?

Ong wants to think it through. --Villy--

My gut reaction "fuck that", but I'm not sure why it's bad. I can't think why it's good though either, so it's pointless without a detailed explanation.

Luco hesitates to explain. --Wolfy--

I like the mystery for now.

Rilla declares his position subtly. --Wolfy--

Wrong and dumb.

Luco still not answering. --Wolfy--

I care not

Rilla declares. Outs Baudib (presumably w/o permish). --Wolfy--

Your first responsibility is to get a read on your partner. My partner is Baudib. He claims Tiffy (Tunt), I claim Cecil Tunt. Second, the game is about the wolves total information against our none. With partner-lines known, they'll be less able to defend each other. They already know all of the villager's they or their buddies are bonded with and can use that to navigate through the lynch mob and claim ignorance after the fact if anyone in the future should sniff them out.

Rilla votes Luco w/o saying why. Cuz he disagrees? Cuz he won't explain? Ong is against, why not vote Ong? --Wolfy--

lynch luco

BID immediately jumps for joy. Then outs MMM w/o consent. --Wolfy--

Right on! My partner is MMM. He claims Lana Kane. Of ISIS. I claim Cyril Figgis, with ISIS.

Luco counter-votes Rilla. Also with no explanation. --Wolfy--

lynch rilla

BID immediately jumps on Luco too w/o cause. --Wolfy--

rescind wuf, lynch luco

Luco pulls off Rilla and counters BID. WTF? --Wolfy--

rescind rilla, Lynch BankItDrew

Ong jumps on BID w/o reason. --Wolfy--

poor mojo. lynch drew

MMM reveals BID's deceipt. --Villy--

(Consent not given)

BID jokes about the most important issue of the game. --Wolfy--

hahaha <3

MMM hunting and butthurt for being outted. --Villy--

I'm fairly confident that BID is V. I'm leaning V on rilla for the reasons ong stated. I'm also on the fence about whether or not it's good if everyone outs, but I'm in a shitty spot since I'm already outed.

BID buttering his Villy partner. --Wolfy--

I agree with everything MMM said. Best team evar!

At LEAST one wolf in this: BID -- RILLA -- LUCO.
For their staunch position and partner outing, I'm seeing BID & RILLA as wolves here.

[rong]

do we know who we're lynching in normal games? yes. why would we think it's correct to not know who we're lynching in this game?

if the idea that we should keep partners hidden is correct, then i think it necessarily means normal games are entirely a crapshoot because it means in those games we would have made just as good of lynch decisions if we didnt know who we were lynching

How is this even remotely true. You're talking rubbish.

[rong]

It seems some of you are equating wuf being wrong/logic failing to wuf being wolf. I mean, have you played with wuf before?

[BankItDrew]

Yeah I'm not sure claiming reveal or not reveal indicates wolf or villager

[monstrman]

Rong defending luco here seems villagery for him.

Thing is, I'm not really sure he's correct to, but I guess I'm not really in an accurate position to assess Wuf entirely atm.

I think he was one of the people that I called an obvious villager right off the bat last game, but I can't remember and I don't really see it this game.