Double Day Unlimited Werewolf

[gabe]

MMM just has lots of tone stuff going on where I picture a wolf writing it...maybe ill highlight some of my 3rd review of his posts sells me enough

[gabe]

this is MMM's first post in the game. would village MMM feel this is necessary? i've bolded sections a wolf might make

I'm not convinced. He (lilrascal) relies on live interaction to press his advantage as villager. This is the perfect hedge.
Everyone hedges. Villagers get less pressure when they're honest, and wolves get less pressure when they lie. Hedges win games.
Whoever calls it can get at least a partial free ride. Especially on this site where we know each other so well.

My read on lilrascal is slightly more wolfy than not.
(I totes misread him as wolfy in my MU game. Even after I'd identified the wolves I had him as possible SK, even though the night actions would have to have been phenomenal to prevent the SK from getting any kills. My meta read on rascal is in the dumps.)

BID for village President. He's playing the strongest D1 village game he's played in my recollection. Leaning V for BID.
I'm leaning slightly village on ong for his defense of his group vote and BID's read supports that. I trust BID's D1 reads on ong.
BID being all over the place is standard BIDville. Picking on BID for this is slightly wolfy, if anything (baud).

Despite that it's slightly wolfy on baudib to pick on BID, in general, he's reading V to me. He always looks village in the early game to me, and he's constantly improving. I hope he's a good guy. I'd love to hear a convincing read on baud, but I think it's too early and he's too good for that.

Gator... idk. He didn't fist pump in his opening post, so I guess that's wolfy.
JKDS always takes time to read, too.
Luco yet to post.
gabe yet to post.


I miss dhubs telling us how vanilla he was in every post.

[gabe]

I think the votes on gabe/gator are strange to say the least, since the odds of either of them getting lynched are minimal, given our meta. Wolves drive a gabe lynch on D1. If gator has the rep he has, then taking him out on D1 when rand dictates that he's more likely V than W is pretty bad form.

is that why you are giving me such a pass this game? because you hope other people will think this and give YOU a pass for it?

[baudib]

Ong, I've gone about 10 straight long games without being lynched and mostly without even being a wagon, probably ~300 different players in those games, I think it is mostly a you problem.

I don't see Rascal as particularly wolfy, but I could be wrong. I still think it's MMM, who has done little to zero solving, and JKDS.

[baudib]

rescind all
Lynch MMM

[baudib]

yep Gabe, that first post by MMM was an abomination.

[baudib]

lynch JKDS

[baudib]

MMM-JKDS-Rascal works

but really MMM-JKDS-reassess.

[OngBonga]

im working through the thread now slowly. can you and baudib just consider this post


and consider why it happens... and consider if thats whats happening now

I have considered it, which is why I'm not fixated on the idea that it's baudib. He's prime suspect, but I've acknowledged several times that I might be wrong and I suck at reading baudib. It's not like I'm blind to my own failings. That said, if I think baudib is a wolf, I will say so, and say why. It's not like I'm reaching, imo. He's either wolf, or wolfy villager. I don't know why he has such a problem with me thinking he's a wolf. It's fucking werewolf. Someone's a wolf.

[BankItDrew]

BID and MMM have been playing on MU.

I played one game on MU and I wasn't interested and probably won't go back if ever, for some time.

So gabe, I wouldn't say I've been 'practicing'.

[OngBonga]

Ok here's two super town mojo posts...

@baudib: I am fed up with the abusive tone you have taken in past games and the fact that you called ong a moron in this game.

Seriously. What are you doing? You say ong is a V and you attack him? Terrible play if you're a V. Fomenting insecurities in your allies is practically suicide. You're doing the wolves' work.

If you're the V you claim you are, then give your reads.
Ask the questions that you find most interesting.
Encourage the people you have V reads on to work together, and forge a team.

This feels particularly honest. I'm a little tired of baudib's tone when he gets fingers waved at him. It's like he feels insulted by the idea he's wolfy, and responds in kind. mojo is either in the same frame of mind here as me, or is brilliantly putting his villager head on.

This "do what you want" BS is simply garbage play if you're a V.

I don't get where this rep that rascal was getting at comes from.

What are your best reads? That I'm a wolf?
I got news: You're wrong about that.
What's your backup?

Who are your most likely villagers? Why?

I got news: You're wrong about that.

Direct and assertive. Straight up honest.

mojo is a villager.

[baudib]

nah

[OngBonga]

I like that drew has backed off mojo thanks to my position on him. I mean if drew is a wolf, he doesn't need to do that. There's still plenty of action on him, he remains vulnerable despite my efforts. drew seems to be open to the idea that I'm right, which indicates to me that he's not identified mojo as mislynch bait.

[BankItDrew]

I find it incredibly interesting the baudib wagon shifting to MMM, which is mainly pushed by gator and gabe imo.

I'm pretending either gabe or gator as wolf doing this. Why? It doesn't make a lot of sense other than because it doesn't make a lot of sense, which may provide village cred, I dunno.

Maybe they think MMM is stronger in late game as a villager.

It's villagery nonetheless.

However, i'm on ongs side when he states MMM is village. It may be a couple days before this stande changes, unless something redic happens but I don't see that with one wolf remaining.

Due to my appreciation of gabe and gators game, I'd strongly consider changing my vote from baudib to someone else but that someone else would be lilrascal.

rescind baudib
lynch lilrascal

[OngBonga]

OK, now you're voting for half the players. Statistically speaking, your approach prob has a wolf in it... and you're indiscriminate enough not to care that you're definitely wrong about 3 of them?

Why are you voting gabe?

Hmm.

There's 8 players, and mojo points out that baudib is voting for half of them. He then says this means there's probably a wolf... probably implies greater than 50%, which in turn implies that mojo is thinking that from baudib's pov, there's 7 unknown because baudib knows he's a villager... which in turn implies that mojo knows baudib is a villager.

Statistically speaking, your approach prob has a wolf in it...

Can this come from a villager? Where's the "if you're a villager" pretext?

I don't think I like this.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Hmm.

There's 8 players, and mojo points out that baudib is voting for half of them. He then says this means there's probably a wolf... probably implies greater than 50%, which in turn implies that mojo is thinking that from baudib's pov, there's 7 unknown because baudib knows he's a villager... which in turn implies that mojo knows baudib is a villager.



Can this come from a villager? Where's the "if you're a villager" pretext?

I don't think I like this.

Probably means >= 50%

[MadMojoMonkey]

They're closing the doors in the plane right now. I'll check in when I change planes and will do a total reread tonight, since I won't have much else to do sitting in the hotel.

This is an elaborate picture to paint for a fabrication.

Whether rascal is a W is still up for grabs, but I seriously doubt his hedge was fake.

[MadMojoMonkey]

this is MMM's first post in the game. would village MMM feel this is necessary? i've bolded sections a wolf might make

I was drunk during my first post. Hungover during my second.

You're right that my tone in those posts was sub-par, but you're missing why.

[OngBonga]

Nah if I flip a coin, it's not probably going to be heads.

I think that from a villager's pov, the "if you're a villager" thinking when applying the idea that baudib is probably voting for a wolf is critical. The villager doesn't know if baudib is probably voting for a wolf, because baudib might be a wolf.

Furthermore, and this might be even better, if mojo is a villager, then he wouldn't consider that baudib is probably voting a villager, because mojo's self awareness means he can take himself out of the pool. Mojo now sees 3 from 7, so he would assume baudib is probably NOT voting for a wolf.

Mojo can only mean from baudib's pov, and the lack of "if you're a villager" I think betrays mojo's state of mind. I think mojo knows baudib is a villager.

Sigh.

[OngBonga]

then he wouldn't consider that baudib is probably voting a villager

*wolf

[MadMojoMonkey]

is that why you are giving me such a pass this game? because you hope other people will think this and give YOU a pass for it?

Giving you a pass? You earned my respect as a V with your vote on Luco.

Prior to that I only defended your rep, and I saw the error in that within a few posts.

My reason for clearing you is well delineated. I have expounded on the fact that I think you bussing Luco there is an extremely unlikely event, and that clears you, from my POV.

But then, you said:

this post has nothing in it. it would be very easy for a wolf to type this.

About my (I thought well founded) reason for doubting that you would bus Luco in that spot.

[OngBonga]

Probably means >= 50%

Yeah I don't think mojo actually thinks this, and it's basically a poor attempt to swat away a slip. I mean the dictionary definition of probably is "almost certainly", but as a poker player I accept >50%.

But not 50%. And I don't think mojo thinks this either. I think mojo is caught.

[MadMojoMonkey]

lolwat? *sigh*

gabe's attack on me is ridiculous and I'm trying to make sense of why he would attack me over explaining why I don't think he would bus Luco. It's not like I left a one-liner and pretended that gabe was lock-vil. I gave my background and conclusions.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Whatever. I'm V. I'm admittedly less interested in this game than prior games.

The village core is well established, and if you guys keep your paranoia out of it, and remember how and why your early reads were formed, then the final W doesn't stand a chance.

Gabe's flip on me is weird. At least he's digging.

Ong's flipping is less weird; I still think ong is genuine.


***
There's over 6 hours left, and I'll be in and out until EOD.

[BankItDrew]

I don't think mmm's 'probable' statement is necessarily role indicative of wolf.

[OngBonga]

Thing is, that's all I dislike about mojo, and I think I dislike more that he's a wagon. I mean it's not like anyone else spotted that "slip". He's been getting pushed when he's in my opinion looked like a villager. And his dismissal there seems genuine. I don't think mojo would have that tone with me as wolf. I think he'd be more defensive, and possibly even turn on me. He seems to have given up caring, and if he was a wolf, I think he just howl and be done with it once he lost me.

He's coming across as genuine, in his tone. That implies villager in the case of mojo, in my opinion. I wouldn't rely on that for the likes of JKDS, but for mojo, I think his villager honesty tends to shine through.

[baudib]

whatever. let's lynch JKDS.

[baudib]

Whatever. I'm V. I'm admittedly less interested in this game than prior games.

The village core is well established, and if you guys keep your paranoia out of it, and remember how and why your early reads were formed, then the final W doesn't stand a chance.

Gabe's flip on me is weird. At least he's digging.

Ong's flipping is less weird; I still think ong is genuine.


***
There's over 6 hours left, and I'll be in and out until EOD.

This is a really weird post. Who is the final W?

[JKDS]

I'm not as committed to my villa mmm read as I am with others. I just remember that mmm usually shines like an obvious villager by this point...and he's not there. He says he's less interested this game, but he still seems like he's interested.

[JKDS]

How sick would it be if that list of three was right?

it's not.

how do you get credit for Luco when he's essentially exactly = rand.

rescind Baudib
Lynch Baudib

Why did you signal out luco here? He hadnt flipped wolf yet

[baudib]

you don't get any credit if he flips W

[JKDS]

Ya, I read the reasoning that was inside the post. Thanks for repeating it.

Anything else to say?

[baudib]

you look pretty wolfy from that sequence.

like, if you nailed 2 wolves in a list of 4 (3) it wouldn't actually be that sick.

you don't give any real reason to vote Luco there either. Like why Luco and not Rascal?

also, your post about MMM there is a lot of sideways talking.

you can die.

[baudib]

From what I can tell Gabe actually thought Luco's lone post was wolfy, and also was consistent in wanting to push people who gave slank cover (Rascal). So his voting pattern is perfectly reasonable and makes sense.

JKDS tossing in Luco there doesn't.

[baudib]

rescind MMM

[JKDS]

Sounds like a ton of BS to me.

Know why?

Cuz GABE was also in my list of three. Gabe who hadnt even posted yet. Luco at least posted once.

So you see my list, and immediately think "NO WAY, NO CREDIT FOR LUCO"....but you dont say the same thing about gabe, you dont even think about gabe, and the reasoning applies even better to gabe.

You had luco on the brain baudib. Hes your wolf bro

[baudib]

no

u

[JKDS]

GG Baud

[gabe]

I read that as baudib saying luco was rand because luco said that luco would not post much in the beginning


Only wolfy part I see is that if whoever says luco has a pure random chance of being a wolf must be wrong because whoever says that knows their own role

[gabe]

Also I want to say that I am not ruling BID out. I feel great about ong and I'm willing to work with some of you

[JKDS]

I read that as baudib saying luco was rand because luco said that luco would not post much in the beginning


Only wolfy part I see is that if whoever says luco has a pure random chance of being a wolf must be wrong because whoever says that knows their own role

Ya, and that parts fine. The problem is he didnt say the same thing about you, when I also voted for you in the same exact post. You hadnt even posted yet, but he makes a point of bringing luco up. Why'd he "forget" you, but remember luco? Its cuz luco means something to him while you dont.

[JKDS]

Also I want to say that I am not ruling BID out. I feel great about ong and I'm willing to work with some of you

Ong and BID are 100% villagers. You are too. Bank it.

[gabe]

baudib and jkds im sitting on a plane thinking about what you're both saying

Unlike rascal I'm paying for wifi

[baudib]

Votecount 1.4

4
Luco - (gabe, Gator, Ong, JKDS)

3
Gator - (gabe, MMM, Ong)

baudib - (BID, MMM, Ong)

2
MMM - (Gator, baudib)

Ong - (JKDS, baudib)

lilrascal - (gabe, Ong)

1
JKDS - (gabe)

From what I see, Gabe has a reason for voting Luco, Gator has MMM and Luco tied together as a pair. Ong is voting for like everyone. JKDS' vote on Luco seems fishy to me.

[JKDS]

Keep digging yourself a bigger hole.

[JKDS]

I mean, you can guess what im gonna post next right?

Ong is voting for like everyone. JKDS' vote on Luco seems fishy to me.

Ong's vote for luco is fine, because he's voting for everyone. Mine is fishy...because...

What about this...

lynch all except jkds

rescind all (cuz easier to read)

lynch
Luco
gabe
Gator
baudib

Special note: I took MMM off the list because I dont think wolf mmm goes absent as often as villager mmm does.

You know, I like that baudib is lynching rascal. I dont like the read, but i like that hes voting him. Villager baudib is likely to critique him super hard given their history.

Rescind baudib

Votecount 1.1

2
luco - (Ong, JKDS)

gabe - (Ong, JKDS)

Gator - (Ong, JKDS)

MMM - (Ong, baudib)

baudib - (BID, Ong)

1
BID - (Ong)

Ong - (baudib)

lilrascal - (Ong)

Oh wait, looks like I voted for everyone than narrowed it down...leaving on gator, and two players with a post between em. SUPER FISHY

[JKDS]

Its so fishy that I kept votes on Luco who I knew nothing about...but its totally legit that I kept a vote on gabe who I also knew nothing about.

[baudib]

lynch me, JKDS, MMM in any order and it's probably a village win.

if the last wolf is not in us 3 then we probably lose but that's the price you pay for lynching me.

I'd think about Drew pretty strongly at F3.

[JKDS]

Know why baudib brought up luco? Because luco is his partner, and sometimes people FUCK UP when they try and post all stream of conscience-like.

Throw in the post on page 3 where Baudib says "lynch me guys, im a burden" and "dont lynch me, you'll regret it" and you have 2 solid wolf tells in addition to a blatant favoring of a wolf. EZ GAME

[baudib]

Its so fishy that I kept votes on Luco who I knew nothing about...but its totally legit that I kept a vote on gabe who I also knew nothing about.

except you didn't?

[gabe]

Its so fishy that I kept votes on Luco who I knew nothing about...but its totally legit that I kept a vote on gabe who I also knew nothing about.

There is a slight but meaningful difference though

Luco was going to be gone most of day 1. I only had a chance of being gone

[JKDS]

lynch me, JKDS, MMM in any order and it's probably a village win.

if the last wolf is not in us 3 then we probably lose but that's the price you pay for lynching me.

I'd think about Drew pretty strongly at F3.

He did it again! Careful guys, we might be wrong!

[baudib]

GAbe is not the same as Luco, the equivalent for Luco is Rascal.

Gabe simply hadn't posted.

Rascal and Luco both gave excuses.

[MadMojoMonkey]

baudib rereading the thread, looking at posts in context, asking good questions... making me rethink my presumptions.

rescind baudib

If I presume baudib as V, then my remaining suspects are JKDS and lilrascal. Frankly, rascal is looking more V than JKDS.

JKDS 177

I like ong now.

B Lynch Rascal
Lynch Gabe
/B
Rascal hasnt cleared himself, and gabes way too eager to lynch people that lynched a wolf and not eager enough in clearing people based on it.

@JKDS: If you want credit for being on the Luco lynch, why lynch gabe, who was on the Luco lynch?
I.e. what was the difference between his 'eagerness' and yours?

I'm not as committed to my villa mmm read as I am with others. I just remember that mmm usually shines like an obvious villager by this point...and he's not there. He says he's less interested this game, but he still seems like he's interested.

I'm interested, but less so than par for me.

Nevertheless, this kind of soft push is wolfy as sin.

[baudib]

Like Gabe voted for Rascal and Luco

Gator voted for MMM and Luco, who he had as a team

JKDS took a random list of 4 people and said, hey it'd be so sick if I had both wolves there. except it's not and it wasn't and he doesn't deserve any credit for making random lists that would be a lot easier with perfect knowledge.

[gabe]

Know why baudib brought up luco? Because luco is his partner, and sometimes people FUCK UP when they try and post all stream of conscience-like

People also fuck up because in general.... Guess what.... people fuck up. It's the wolves who try to post carefully, not the wolves. I'm open to listening to you but "baudib made an error mistake" does not imply wolfiness. I make plenty of history mistakes when I'm a villager (I made one this game kinda when I didnt realize gator should have village credit for his luco vote). I make them as a wolf when I'm not trying too hard (I guess when I'm not invested in the game too much this happens)

[gabe]

He did it again! Careful guys, we might be wrong!

Hehe I agree that these sentences of his make me roll my eyes. But also I've said them before... I am curious how often I've made people on here roll their eyes

[JKDS]

There is a slight but meaningful difference though

Luco was going to be gone most of day 1. I only had a chance of being gone

Whats the relevance? A vote on an inactive is a vote on an inactive. There is no reason for Baudib to find a vote on luco fishy, but a vote on you perfectly fine.

[gabe]

Guys I would never say "hehe" as a wolf. Maybe I'll get a chance next game though...

[gabe]

Whats the relevance? A vote on an inactive is a vote on an inactive. There is no reason for Baudib to find a vote on luco fishy, but a vote on you perfectly fine.

Because it's possible for me to show my colors on day 1 when it's not possible for luco. Definitely a difference between us

[baudib]

I thought everyone's votes in the first period were more or less throwing darts at a board, I acknowledged that I didn't even like my own votes that much.

That JKDS vote on Luco just stuck out as weird, and still does.

[JKDS]

baudib rereading the thread, looking at posts in context, asking good questions... making me rethink my presumptions.

rescind baudib

If I presume baudib as V, then my remaining suspects are JKDS and lilrascal. Frankly, rascal is looking more V than JKDS.

JKDS 177

@JKDS: If you want credit for being on the Luco lynch, why lynch gabe, who was on the Luco lynch?
I.e. what was the difference between his 'eagerness' and yours?


I'm interested, but less so than par for me.

Nevertheless, this kind of soft push is wolfy as sin.

I dont want credit. This isnt about proving my villagerness, its about proving baudib's wolfiness. No one can prove theyre a villager, and if you've been watching my playstyle throughout the past year, you know i've given up on that for a long time.

The issue is that my vote on luco is fishy, yet on gabe it isnt. Baudib had nothing to say to that, until gabe posted "hrm hrm, but excuses are different than nonapperances" to which baudib parroted right away.

[gabe]

People also fuck up because in general.... Guess what.... people fuck up. It's the wolves who try to post carefully, not the wolves. I'm open to listening to you but "baudib made an error mistake" does not imply wolfiness. I make plenty of history mistakes when I'm a villager (I made one this game kinda when I didnt realize gator should have village credit for his luco vote). I make them as a wolf when I'm not trying too hard (I guess when I'm not invested in the game too much this happens)

Fuck I typoed. I was trying to say that wolves post more carefully than villagers. I said wolves twice

[JKDS]

I thought everyone's votes in the first period were more or less throwing darts at a board, I acknowledged that I didn't even like my own votes that much.

That JKDS vote on Luco just stuck out as weird, and still does.

Why. All I did was remove 4 people that looked like villagers (MMM, Ong, Rascal, and BID). You're looking at it like an attack on luco, instead of what it was. I cant understand that, and the onyl way it makes sense is if luco was your bro

[baudib]

seriously, me, JKDS, MMM in any order should win this ~90% of the time.

JKDS has mostly everyone else at 100% villager so he should go along with this.

[gabe]

Baudib had nothing to say to that, until gabe posted "hrm hrm, but excuses are different than nonapperances" to which baudib parroted right away.

Parroted or rather we both immediately recognized the difference ?

baudib and I responding the same in the same minute is wolfy points for you imo. It makes our joint conclusion seem obvious ... Which makes you "forcing" that defense kinda wolfy

[baudib]

Why. All I did was remove 4 people that looked like villagers (MMM, Ong, Rascal, and BID). You're looking at it like an attack on luco, instead of what it was. I cant understand that, and the onyl way it makes sense is if luco was your bro

Rascal was looking like a villager when he did the same thing as Luco?

[JKDS]

seriously, me, JKDS, MMM in any order should win this ~90% of the time.

JKDS has mostly everyone else at 100% villager so he should go along with this.

I do. I disagree with your "look at BID" post though, because rascal is more likely to be a wolf than BID if this is somehow wrong.

[OngBonga]

This is great stuff right here.

[JKDS]

Rascal was looking like a villager when he did the same thing as Luco?

Today, I learned that 3 posts of content from Rascal = 1 post of excuses from Luco

[JKDS]

Parroted or rather we both immediately recognized the difference ?

baudib and I responding the same in the same minute is wolfy points for you imo. It makes our joint conclusion seem obvious ... Which makes you "forcing" that defense kinda wolfy

Its certainly possible it was both an original thought. Im deliberately sidestepping that though, because its so much more likely that hes just looking for ways out.

[OngBonga]

baudib never explained why he feels the game is town sided.

[JKDS]

People also fuck up because in general.... Guess what.... people fuck up. It's the wolves who try to post carefully, not the wolves. I'm open to listening to you but "baudib made an error mistake" does not imply wolfiness. I make plenty of history mistakes when I'm a villager (I made one this game kinda when I didnt realize gator should have village credit for his luco vote). I make them as a wolf when I'm not trying too hard (I guess when I'm not invested in the game too much this happens)

People do make mistakes, but when mistakes happen, you man up and say "whoops, you're right, doesnt make much sense". You dont do what baudib is doing and make a ton of excuses for how his read possibly makes any sense...with each one having more holes than the last.

[baudib]

These are Rascal's 3 posts to start the day, I'm really not sure how any gets a villa read off them.

I was going to do this, but now that Ong has done it, it seems too wolfy.

I don't follow you on this first sentence. It seems you're just going in circles (i.e., WIFOM).

FYI, my work schedule is going to be insane for the next month or so, but I'll do what I can.

[OngBonga]

Didn't you have a village read on rascal?