Russians vs. Americans: A Werewolf Game for October 2015

[Luco]

[Luco]

So when the poisoner outs D6 the game is an absolute lock. Even if one of Luco / ong / rascal is a wolf, they cannot win.

AROOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Lame. I thought I had it there

[GatorJH]

wuf, this was you LAST GAME.

come to think of it, gator's plan doesn't make much sense. why would he say "rolecop myself" when he says he's vv?

gator's plan here might be to not nom (notice he lays the groundwork for us knowing how silly it would be for the wolf to not nom), then tomorrow the jailkeeper would be all like "yo's i jailed duh hooper and no nom therefore we's all win". then v hoopy dies and the wolf noms the jailkeeper, and he has an actual ability to win again.

this is gator level goatwolfing

gator

im pretty sold it's gator. i kinda have to be since i theorized about how he would play wolf then he did just that (in such a case where he probably didn't see my post), so i should stick to my guns

Do you remember my role that game?

I subbed into this game and played like a complete villager, yet still get lynched why?

You guys have stopped looking for the final wolf and it is tilting the shit out of me.

[GatorJH]

Wait what?

wow, just wow. rescind

lynch Luco

[lilrascal]

So when the poisoner outs D6 the game is an absolute lock. Even if one of Luco / ong / rascal is a wolf, they cannot win.

AROOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Lame. I thought I had it there

Wow. I had you almost as a lock.

Good game, too bad your team got rekt so early, you were well placed for a deep wolf.

Lynch Luco

[Luco]

Lol calm down guys it was just a joke

[Luco]

You guys have stopped looking for the final wolf and it is tilting the shit out of me.

Gator my huge problem is that in order for the final wolf to be anyone but you, it means the wolves had a master plan to send a VANILLA wolf deep. I can't even begin to think about this level of retardedness until you're dead

Literally the only other person it could be is wuf imo

[Luco]

oh and btw eff you for actually getting me to ISO rascal after you posted that case on him

[lilrascal]

Lol calm down guys it was just a joke

Ok, but I don't like what you just did. I was convinced it was gator and then you pulled that.

Lynch gator

Please don't do that again in a game.

I'm off to work now. See you this evening.

[Luco]

Please don't do that again in a game

Well I guess we are technically still in a game, even if mathematically we are not.

[Luco]

Rascal, it's 8-1 with 3 confirmed villagers (beck / hifi / SMF). There's no way the last wolf can win.

6 in the PoE today, lynch one
5 tomorrow + 2 confirmed, lynch one poison one
3 the day after + 1 confirmed

In this final PoE of three, one will be poisoned and one will be the village poisoner. Lynch the third.

[MadMojoMonkey]

rescind HiFi

So when the poisoner outs D6 the game is an absolute lock. Even if one of Luco / ong / rascal is a wolf, they cannot win.

AROOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Lame. I thought I had it there

lynch Luco

Lol calm down guys it was just a joke

I am not laughing.

lynch Luco not changing.

[GatorJH]

I think you are missing something. Let me get through my workout and get back to my computer to work it out.

Oh, and reacind

[Luco]

I think you are missing something. Let me get through my workout and get back to my computer to work it out.

Oh, and reacind

I don't think I am but if you can show me any scenario where the wolf can win I will certainly eat shit for that aroo

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't think I am but if you can show me any scenario where the wolf can win I will certainly eat shit for that aroo

This is easily a more dangerous and stupid gambit than wuf's self-vote.

SMH

Never underestimate the village power to spew and destroy the alliances they've formed.

[Luco]

This is easily a more dangerous and stupid gambit than wuf's self-vote.

SMH

Never underestimate the village power to spew and destroy the alliances they've formed.

Lolwut

[GatorJH]

Poisoner please do not out.

[Luco]

Poisoner please do not out.

This doesn't matter either btw

[Luco]

I hope its gone quiet because you're all doing the math

[Luco]

I'll help you guys out.

Two most dangerous players for the final wolf are poisoner and seer. Seer b/c they get an alignment peek tonight (increases confirmed pool), poisoner because he doubles the rate we can work through the PoE. No matter which one the wolf kills tonight we will have more confirmed villas than unconfirmed by close of play tomorrow, so even in a total vacuum and ignoring everyone’s play up to this point we literally can’t lose.

Remember, killing the poisoner doesn't stop his poison working for that night (all night actions are simultaneous). We get two kills tomorrow no matter what.

[Beck Novo]

Yeah, it really is that simple.

I ran through about every scenario possible in my head before claiming, trying to weigh the actual value of of my peek tonight, and I came to the same conclusion no matter what happens. Mechanically we can cruise through our PoE before the wolf can NK all of our clears.

[GatorJH]

OK. Let me work this out using real names and a couple of assumed roles.

known
Beck - Spymaster
SMF - healer
hifi - confirmed villager

Assumed for the purpose of playing this out only
Gator - villager
Luco - villager
wuf - villager
rascal - villager
MMM - Poisoner

Ong - deeply covered wolf

D4 - lynch Luco
N4 - Beck gets nommed, Gator gets poisoned
D5 - wuf get lynched
N5 - Gator dies, smf poisons rascal and hifi gets nommed.

D6 now has Ong, Luco, smf and a poisoned rascal. SMF outs as poisoner and there is no CC. Luco gets lynched.
N6 rascal dies, smf poisons Ong but Ong then noms smf and wins as the last person standing


However, I think if we avoid poisoner today he can out D5 and we do win as it would go like this (using the same roles as above):

D4 - lynch Luco
N4 - Beck gets nommed, Gator gets poisoned
D5 - SMF outs as Poisoner and there is no counter claim. wuf get lynched
N5 - Gator dies, SMF does not poison then gets nommed.
D6 opens with confirmed hifi, rascal, Ong and Luco. Rascal gets lynched.
N7 hifi gets nommed and with just Ong and Luco left Ong wins.

If smf poisons rascal N5 then dies the result is the same.
D6 Luco gets lynched.
N6 rascal dies Ong noms hifi and wins.


I think you panicked, made your arooo post then realized you could still actually win.

lynch luco

[GatorJH]

Crap - I forgot MMM in all of that. Disregard all of the above.

[OngBonga]

It's Claire.

Lack Claire.

[Luco]

OK. Let me work this out using real names and a couple of assumed roles.

known
Beck - Spymaster
SMF - healer
hifi - confirmed villager

Assumed for the purpose of playing this out only
Gator - villager
Luco - villager
wuf - villager
rascal - villager
MMM - Poisoner

Ong - deeply covered wolf

D4 - lynch Luco
N4 - Beck gets nommed, Gator gets poisoned
D5 - wuf get lynched
N5 - Gator dies, smf poisons rascal and hifi gets nommed.

D6 now has Ong, Luco, smf and a poisoned rascal. SMF outs as poisoner and there is no CC. Luco gets lynched.
N6 rascal dies, smf poisons Ong but Ong then noms smf and wins as the last person standing


However, I think if we avoid poisoner today he can out D5 and we do win as it would go like this (using the same roles as above):

D4 - lynch Luco
N4 - Beck gets nommed, Gator gets poisoned
D5 - SMF outs as Poisoner and there is no counter claim. wuf get lynched
N5 - Gator dies, SMF does not poison then gets nommed.
D6 opens with confirmed hifi, rascal, Ong and Luco. Rascal gets lynched.
N7 hifi gets nommed and with just Ong and Luco left Ong wins.

If smf poisons rascal N5 then dies the result is the same.
D6 Luco gets lynched.
N6 rascal dies Ong noms hifi and wins.


I think you panicked, made your arooo post then realized you could still actually win.

lynch luco

Your math sucks. Try again

[Luco]

Can't lynch me d4 and d6 gator

[OngBonga]

Oh this page.

wp luco.

I thought luco was the seer, by the way. I don't think luco softs seer so hard all game if he's wolf.

[GatorJH]

D4 - lynch Luco
N4 - Beck gets nommed, Gator gets poisoned
D5 - wuf get lynched
N5 - Gator dies, mmm poisons rascal and hifi gets nommed.

D6 now has Ong, Luco, smf, mmm and a poisoned rascal. mmm outs as poisoner and there is no CC. Luco gets lynched.
N6 rascal dies, mmm gets nommed and does not poison
D7 opens with Ong, Luco and smf, of which none are confirmed.

If mmm does not poison N5 we end up at D7 with Ong, Luco, SMF and MMM; none of which are confirmed.

What am I missing?

[GatorJH]

Your math sucks. Try again

damnit. I am doing this too much in a hurry.

[gabe]

is this ok

[OngBonga]

This means it could be rascal.

I have rascal celared because luco softed that he cleared him.

[Luco]

Oh this page.

wp luco.

I thought luco was the seer, by the way. I don't think luco softs seer so hard all game if he's wolf.

I think I blew my seer cover in a couple of posts when I momentarily forgot who I was supposed to have peeked

Tried to antispew it, but as I never got eaten I'm assuming the wolves saw through it

[MadMojoMonkey]

AROOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Lame. I thought I had it there

If you die a villager, then you have only yourself to blame for making this post.

[OngBonga]

I actually wrote out a seer fakeclaim to give you cover, but realise that it fell apart with my n0 hifi v peek and where my vote was at that time lol

[OngBonga]

Do you really think it's luco mojo?

Seriously, I'm shocked luco isn;t the seer.

[GatorJH]

Yeah it works.

Whew!!!

Oh and rescind

[GatorJH]

My final comment this game.

When will I ever get credit for being a villager? I villaged my ASSSSSSS off this game, so much so that it my hamper my wolf game the next time I draw wolf, and you guys still thought I was a wolf (I am not, btw).

[GatorJH]

FWIW I still think it is Rascal.

[OngBonga]

I don't think it's gator. I doubt very much he does all this work when he's a fucked wolf.

[Luco]

D4 - lynch Luco
N4 - Beck gets nommed, Gator gets poisoned
D5 - wuf get lynched
N5 - Gator dies, mmm poisons rascal and hifi gets nommed.

D6 now has Ong, Luco, smf, mmm and a poisoned rascal. mmm outs as poisoner and there is no CC. Luco gets lynched.
N6 rascal dies, mmm gets nommed and does not poison
D7 opens with Ong, Luco and smf, of which none are confirmed.

If mmm does not poison N5 we end up at D7 with Ong, Luco, SMF and MMM; none of which are confirmed.

What am I missing?

In your final day MMM & SMF are confirmed, rascal is poisoned and we lynch ong for the win

I already died D4

[OngBonga]

FWIW I still think it is Rascal.

I agree with you. I think you're right.

Fuck it

lynch rascal

[Luco]

If you die a villager, then you have only yourself to blame for making this post.

Please do the math mojo and know that I would never ever do something so anti-village in a live game.

[GatorJH]

In your final day MMM & SMF are confirmed, rascal is poisoned and we lynch ong for the win

I already died D4

Yeah, that's what I got to when I slowed down.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Do you really think it's luco mojo?

Seriously, I'm shocked luco isn;t the seer.

I'd guess Luco <= 10% wolf, and was using < 1% of his analytical thought process when he made that post.

I said policy lynches are bad for the village. I stand firm that lynching someone over a policy that has nothing to do with the current game is not hunting. A policy to lynch anyone who claims wolf in-thread is not the same.

Howling in-thread gets my vote all day, every day, every time. It's too much WIFOM to mess with that, and I find no positive reason to encourage villagers to start howling in future games.

Howl = wolf or 'tarded gambit by a villager. What's Luco's gambit? Who is he protecting?

[GatorJH]

lynch rascal

[GatorJH]

I'd guess Luco <= 10% wolf, and was using < 1% of his analytical thought process when he made that post.

I said policy lynches are bad for the village. I stand firm that lynching someone over a policy that has nothing to do with the current game is not hunting. A policy to lynch anyone who claims wolf in-thread is not the same.

Howling in-thread gets my vote all day, every day, every time. It's too much WIFOM to mess with that, and I find no positive reason to encourage villagers to start howling in future games.

Howl = wolf or 'tarded gambit by a villager. What's Luco's gambit? Who is he protecting?

He is not protecting anyone. He did the math and confirmed that the village can't lose with Beck's outing.

Are you the final wolf mmm?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Please do the math mojo

Unless you're somehow cleared and I missed it, then we're both in the POE, and you shouldn't care one wet fish about anything I do today.

Will get to the math. I worked a 13.5 hour day on Tuesday, and I was dead tired yesterday. I haven't checked the math, but I haven't seen any glaring errors in what's been posited.

know that I would never ever do something so anti-village in a live game.

So you admit it was TERRIBLY anti-village?

[MadMojoMonkey]

No, I'm not the final wolf. I'm flattered that you think I'd be capable of such an epic wolf game, and I hope that you're right.

There may come a game where I can simultaneously convince Luco, ong, rascal, and wuf that I am a villager when I'm not, but that game is not this game.

[Luco]

Unless you're somehow cleared and I missed it, then we're both in the POE, and you shouldn't care one wet fish about anything I do today.

Will get to the math. I worked a 13.5 hour day on Tuesday, and I was dead tired yesterday. I haven't checked the math, but I haven't seen any glaring errors in what's been posited.


So you admit it was TERRIBLY anti-village?

Of course it's terribly anti village you donut!

I checked the numbers more than once before I posted that

[Luco]

Oh! I almost forgot

THE POISONER MUST OUT TODAY (D4) OR TOMORROW (D5).

There we go. I seem to remember thinking some weird final day counterclaim might do it for the wolves but just in case, this cinches it up for sure

[OngBonga]

Just take me to final day. I'm not the poisoner because no way do I hit SMF when I thought he was healer.
If I'm the wolf, I can't cc posioner.

[Luco]

Just take me to final day. I'm not the poisoner because no way do I hit SMF when I thought he was healer.
If I'm the wolf, I can't cc posioner.

This is also effective

[Luco]

Wait, so is wuf the last wolf?

Gator should have conceded ~5 posts ago

[MadMojoMonkey]

Assuming all ML and poisons go to V's, since game ends otherwise,
Assuming all village PR's out their roles before EOD:

D4 -> NOW -> 1W, 8V, 3 conf. V (CV) - lynch V

N4 -> 1W, 7V, 3 CV - NK spymaster, poison V

D5 -> 1W, 5V, 2 CV (poisoned V = dead) - lynch V

N5 -> 1W, 4V, 2 CV - NK poisoner, poison V

D6 -> 1W, 2V, 1 CV - game not locked.


P.S. I can't be the poisoner, 'cause that means I would have a PR in a game that is not a role-madness game, and that is against the laws of physics as I understand them.

[Luco]

Assuming all ML and poisons go to V's, since game ends otherwise,
Assuming all village PR's out their roles before EOD:

D4 -> NOW -> 1W, 8V, 3 conf. V (CV) - lynch V

N4 -> 1W, 7V, 3 CV - NK spymaster, poison V

D5 -> 1W, 5V, 2 CV (poisoned V = dead) - lynch V

N5 -> 1W, 4V, 2 CV - NK poisoner, poison V

D6 -> 1W, 2V, 1 CV - game not locked.


P.S. I can't be the poisoner, 'cause that means I would have a PR in a game that is not a role-madness game, and that is against the laws of physics as I understand them.

Add one confirmed for the poisoner who hasn't outed yet.

We are technically at 4 CV right now

[MadMojoMonkey]

Add one confirmed for the poisoner who hasn't outed yet.

We are technically at 4 CV right now

Healer, Poisoner, BUP, spymaster.

BUP is dead. Long live gabe!

Who is the 4th conf. V?

[Luco]

Healer, Poisoner, BUP, spymaster.

BUP is dead. Long live gabe!

Who is the 4th conf. V?

Beck peeked hifi N0

[Beck Novo]

MMM, one of your two V's is SMF or HiFi, both who have been cleared. So if the final wolf NK's myself and then our outed Poisoner, we still have two cleared players in our F4, and of the two not cleared, one will be lynched and one will succumb to poison.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Ah yes, I get it now. I agree that the game is locked.

Final wolf should out.

rescind Luco

What's the VC?

[Luco]

Mojo, my troll arooo was only ever meant to be a final bit of entertainment for us all while we waited for the wolf to concede.

I hadn't counted on el lobo finale taking this long though

[OngBonga]

wuf isn't going to concede.

[OngBonga]

rascal has posted twice since the claim, but hasn't read the recent maths. It's either him or wuf.

[OngBonga]

Lynch rascal, posion wuf.

gg

[OngBonga]

Or peek wuf, poison gator.

I mean gator probably concedes here, but he subbed in late, maybe he wants to practise his wolfing. He's not trying to win, he's just trying to convince us he's not the wolf.

That's also possible.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Probably wuf. I kinda figured BATM was gonna flip villager but there's literally no way I can save that guy cuz he didn't even play.. Basically called us all fucktards n continued to not play.

I had suspicions of wuf all throughout this game but the choice was BATM/wuf. And it wasn't the same situation as Kami/ship

[OngBonga]

I'd be saving wuf all day long out of those options.

[Beck Novo]

I want Wuf to be the wolf because then my reads were like 80% correct.

[GatorJH]

Or peek wuf, poison gator.

I mean gator probably concedes here, but he subbed in late, maybe he wants to practise his wolfing. He's not trying to win, he's just trying to convince us he's not the wolf.

That's also possible.

Sigh

Seriously stop thinking I am always wolfing.

[OngBonga]

gator I'm just keeping an open mind. Note the word "possibility".

I think you're a villager. I could be wrong.

[OngBonga]

Also, notice gator that I'm voting for rascal. I appreciate the work you've put in to look at him. I thought he was cleared, but with beck claiming seer, that changes.

Just because I think you could be a wolf, doesn't mean I'm blind to your villagery efforts.

[GatorJH]

Peek wuf means you trust him as V more than me. That hurts man, it really hurts.

Plus peeking wuf doesn't work because Beck dies tonight if final wolf doesn't concede.

[OngBonga]

I don't trust wuf more than you. I was just spewing my thoughts in a not particularly brilliant way.

peeking wuf as a strategy to catch him is stupid because the seer isn't going to survive the night. I guess the point I'm trying to make there is that I think the poe is you, wuf and rascal.

I'd have you bottom of that list.

[Luco]

rescind gator

[MadMojoMonkey]

rascal is pretty near the V-side of my POE. More than wuf.

I think the rascal-boog interaction has rascal nearly lock V.

I misread villager-rascal on MU as "OMG, he's a wolf," even after the game was over and he was a V. It's in rascal's nature to dig in his heels and to be suspicious of even the most villagery of villagers. I think I've seen plenty of villager knees from rascal.

If he's the wolf, then disregard anything I have to say about rascal's alignment for the foreseeable future.

[Luco]

Waiting for wuf to post to see if we're playing this out, but if it comes to it we should probably have ong and mmm at f4