Polygamist Werewolf

[lilrascal]

Caught up thru page 2. Gabe doesn't look good from his interactions with ong and gator.

[lilrascal]

Updated (and totally reliable and not at all incorrect) VOTE COUNT

Wuf (3) rascal, Supermonkey, Keith
Boog (2) Ong, Rilla
Keith (1) Wuf
Ong (1) Gabe

Deadline extended, 72ish hours left in the day

Thanks for this. Work has been crazy. Plus we need some more content from people.

[lilrascal]

It didn't take as long as I thought it would to catch up.

I'm liking what I see from Ong, Gatore, Rilla and BID.

Rescind Wuf. He's looking better on this page.

Still not liking Gabe and I don't see what others see as villa in him. I'd like to here more rationale why people think he's villa here.

Boog just seems really off with his posting. Since we have more time, I'll hold off on my vote, but if we were closer to EOD, I'd be voting Boog right now.

[wufwugy]

gabe's posts ahve been more "solvey" than anybody else's. by a factor of 2 or something

[OngBonga]

Yeah my vote should be on boog, not gabe.

For clarity...
lynch boog

But a keith lynch is also appealing. I can't quite put my finger on it, I guess the closest I can get to how I feel with keith is he doesn't seem like he's in his comfort zone.

gabe's posts ahve been more "solvey" than anybody else's. by a factor of 2 or something

It's alarming that he votes me simply for disagreeing with him. gabe knows as well as anyone that villagers can disagree, it doesn't seem natural that he'd default to me being a wolf for wanting to keep buddies private until tomorrow. Why doesn't he think my explanation is sincere?

[lilrascal]

gabe's posts ahve been more "solvey" than anybody else's. by a factor of 2 or something

I'm just not seeing him as being "solvey".

[OngBonga]

gabe doesn't actually think we'll be lynching one person blind today. I for one doubt very much that the lynchee goes down without outing his buddy. So long as there's time to reassess, then I don't see why we need to all out our buddies prematurely. I prefer to force the wolves to punt at individuals, rather than pairs.

[lilrascal]

Yeah my vote should be on boog, not gabe.

For clarity...
lynch boog

But a keith lynch is also appealing. I can't quite put my finger on it, I guess the closest I can get to how I feel with keith is he doesn't seem like he's in his comfort zone.



It's alarming that he votes me simply for disagreeing with him. gabe knows as well as anyone that villagers can disagree, it doesn't seem natural that he'd default to me being a wolf for wanting to keep buddies private until tomorrow. Why doesn't he think my explanation is sincere?

I agree with your Boog vote, but with the extra time we have, I'd rather it not be that close to a MAJ. Your vote gives him 4 right now.

[lilrascal]

gabe doesn't actually think we'll be lynching one person blind today. I for one doubt very much that the lynchee goes down without outing his buddy. So long as there's time to reassess, then I don't see why we need to all out our buddies prematurely. I prefer to force the wolves to punt at individuals, rather than pairs.

I agree with this, along with a couple of other thoughts that I have that I don't want to discuss right now.

[OngBonga]

Fair enough, I'll hold off. I mean technically it was already voting for him, JKDS just misread it or whatever.

rescind

[wufwugy]

after thinking about it, its very hard for boog to be a wolf. we saw his wolf game last game and he would not stick his neck out like this as a wolf. him and his partner are safe today from my vote. i just cant see any universe where he, as a wolf, would directly attack me in such a way in the first few posts. obv hes completely wrong but i understand his intention

however bankitdrew, ong and gator all posted against me without risking too much. they took the easy way out. bid and ong more than gator

SMF claiming his partner seems kinda dumb but i highly doubt he's a wolf. that would be too crazy doing the secret white letters move as a wolf. once you notice the letters (it actually took me a few reads to see) it sticks out so much (as an action, not the letters) that it seems way too spewy as a wolf.

fwiw i was the only person who said to hide our partners at that point in the game. since i pretty much had the most words in the thread at that point i dont see a wolf blatantly exposing himself after that

i feel pretty strong about this read and my boog read. those reads give 4 cleared villagers, plus me and my partner, which gives us a lock to win. i have the solution, its just a matter of how late in the day we out

two posts with a few solvey bits in each from just the first page. there are better options than gabe.

[OngBonga]

We certainly shouldn't hammer anyone without both the lynchees being known. I mean stating intent to hammer then waiting for a response is probably the way forward unless deadline is imminent.

[OngBonga]

two posts with a few solvey bits in each from just the first page. there are better options than gabe.

I agree gabe isn't the lynch. He might be a wolf, but we don't need to lynch him to win even if he is.

[lilrascal]

I see that more as defensive than solvey from gabe.

[wufwugy]

I see that more as defensive than solvey from gabe.

parts of them are

[lilrascal]

We certainly shouldn't hammer anyone without both the lynchees being known. I mean stating intent to hammer then waiting for a response is probably the way forward unless deadline is imminent.

IMO, there's going to be a claim either way (w or v) near EOD. What concerns me the most is a crazy CFD, so I'd prefer that we get the top two wolf suspects as the wagons and that way if there is a CFD, we can move to the other wolfy wagon rather than a random which is more likely to get a villa lynched.

[wufwugy]

the key lines from those two posts

after thinking about it, its very hard for boog to be a wolf. we saw his wolf game last game and he would not stick his neck out like this as a wolf. him and his partner are safe today from my vote. i just cant see any universe where he, as a wolf, would directly attack me in such a way in the first few posts. obv hes completely wrong but i understand his intention

^^all solvey

however bankitdrew, ong and gator all posted against me without risking too much. they took the easy way out. bid and ong more than gator

^^half solvey half defensive

SMF claiming his partner seems kinda dumb but i highly doubt he's a wolf. that would be too crazy doing the secret white letters move as a wolf. once you notice the letters (it actually took me a few reads to see) it sticks out so much (as an action, not the letters) that it seems way too spewy as a wolf.

^^all solvey

fwiw i was the only person who said to hide our partners at that point in the game. since i pretty much had the most words in the thread at that point i dont see a wolf blatantly exposing himself after that

^^defensive

i feel pretty strong about this read and my boog read. those reads give 4 cleared villagers, plus me and my partner, which gives us a lock to win. i have the solution, its just a matter of how late in the day we out

^^solvey too

[wufwugy]

gabe's mind is in v mode

is he good enough to do as a wolf? probably. does he do it as a villager? definitely

[lilrascal]

Wuf, I don't see anything of what you're quoting as "solvey" from gabe as something he couldn't be saying very easily as a wolf. It's more commentary than solvey to me.

I also agree there are more probable wolves out there.

[wufwugy]

eh in all those lines even the defensive stuff has solvey elements

[OngBonga]

IMO, there's going to be a claim either way (w or v) near EOD. What concerns me the most is a crazy CFD, so I'd prefer that we get the top two wolf suspects as the wagons and that way if there is a CFD, we can move to the other wolfy wagon rather than a random which is more likely to get a villa lynched.

Well it's not like a seer gets lynched, so the worst case scenario is derping into someone who looked like a villager. Bad, but never a disaster.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, I don't see anything of what you're quoting as "solvey" from gabe as something he couldn't be saying very easily as a wolf. It's more commentary than solvey to me.

I also agree there are more probable wolves out there.

it's the logical process stuff. like, "so n so is wolfy for this reason, which means this n that, which is relevant because of these and those, which means such n such"

[lilrascal]

Well it's not like a seer gets lynched, so the worst case scenario is derping into someone who looked like a villager. Bad, but never a disaster.

Good point.

[wufwugy]

Wuf, I don't see anything of what you're quoting as "solvey" from gabe as something he couldn't be saying very easily as a wolf. It's more commentary than solvey to me.

I also agree there are more probable wolves out there.

that said, it is also commentary. but it's *good* commentary if he's wolfing

[lilrascal]

I just don't see it. I'm not him as wolfy, but I'm not seeing him as villa either.

The good thing is we have some more time to get our reads.

[lilrascal]

Wuf and Ong, while you'll are here, who do you think should be the top two wagons?

[OngBonga]

boog and keith.

[wufwugy]

im okay where theyre at now, but i dont like organizing wagons--they should evolve organically. the extension changes play now. if we were near eod i would have more thoughts than i will give now

[wufwugy]

basically boog and keith are two of the four players i like for lynches. no need saying who the other two are at this point

[lilrascal]

I like Ong's answer better for taking a stance.

Wuf, you're second wagon right now and you're OK with that?

[lilrascal]

basically boog and keith are two of the four players i like for lynches. no need saying who the other two are at this point

I like this answer better than the one that I responded to in the crosspost.

[wufwugy]

I like Ong's answer better for taking a stance.

Wuf, you're second wagon right now and you're OK with that?

i meant boog and keith. im not bugged by my wagon

[aubreymcfate]

Updated (and totally reliable and not at all incorrect) VOTE COUNT

Wuf (3) rascal, Supermonkey, Keith
Boog (2) Ong, Rilla
Keith (1) Wuf
Ong (1) Gabe

Deadline extended, 72ish hours left in the day

This is incorrect, I voted for Keith.

corrected version:

VOTE COUNT

[/B][/COLOR]Wuf (3) rascal, Supermonkey, Keith
Boog (2) Ong, Rilla
Keith (2) Aubrey, Wuf
Ong (1) Gabe[B]

[aubreymcfate]

i only edited to put that corrected version in, totally slipped my mind

[aubreymcfate]

and i fucked up the code too lol, whatever

Anyway I'm obviously in favor of the keith wagon

[aubreymcfate]

oops I didn't incorporate the latest votes in that. sorry, i'm mega tired. i hope this is right, if not someone please fix it:


corrected version:


VOTE COUNT


Boog (3) Ong, Rilla, BID
Wuf (2) Supermonkey, Keith
Keith (2) Aubrey, Wuf
Ong (1) Gabe

[aubreymcfate]

ugh FUCK, i'm so slow right now. ong rescinded boog (worth noting: it doesn't put wagon at 4 like rascal said it would). if this is still wrong i'm going to just get a lobotomy and finish the job

ultra corrected version:


VOTE COUNT


Boog (2) Rilla, BID
Wuf (2) Supermonkey, Keith
Keith (2) Aubrey, Wuf
Ong (1) Gabe

[wufwugy]

lol right a lobotomy improves brain function

[aubreymcfate]

i mean finish the job of the brain atrophy already occurring

[JKDS]

VOTE COUNT?

Boog (2): Rilla, BID
Wuf (2): SMF, Keith
Keith (2): Aubrey, Wuf
Ong (1): Gabe

Hell, maybe this one is accurate.

[lilrascal]

ugh FUCK, i'm so slow right now. ong rescinded boog (worth noting: it doesn't put wagon at 4 like rascal said it would). if this is still wrong i'm going to just get a lobotomy and finish the job

ultra corrected version:


VOTE COUNT


Boog (2) Rilla, BID
Wuf (2) Supermonkey, Keith
Keith (2) Aubrey, Wuf
Ong (1) Gabe

I don't like that you appear to be insinuating that I'm doing something sinister in the underlined bolded statement above that you think it "worth noting".

Below is the vote count and votes that I based my statement on.

Updated (and totally reliable and not at all incorrect) VOTE COUNT

Wuf (3) rascal, Supermonkey, Keith
Boog (2) Ong, Rilla
Keith (1) Wuf
Ong (1) Gabe

Deadline extended, 72ish hours left in the day

Boog has 2 votes per the mods VC.

If I go against the grain and out my "lover", will I get another infraction?

Maybe I don't have to though cause I think he already outted me. I'm playing on a cell phone and it's hard to tell. If you know what I mean.

I like ong as a villager and rilla's quality of posts have been good. I'm not yet seeing wuf as a wolf too. Also, I very much truly hate hate hate beeuguh's post about gabe being 85% wolf after what? Two posts? This is partly why I think rilla is a villager.

lynch boog

This would give boog 3 votes.

Yeah my vote should be on boog, not gabe.

For clarity...
lynch boog

But a keith lynch is also appealing. I can't quite put my finger on it, I guess the closest I can get to how I feel with keith is he doesn't seem like he's in his comfort zone.



It's alarming that he votes me simply for disagreeing with him. gabe knows as well as anyone that villagers can disagree, it doesn't seem natural that he'd default to me being a wolf for wanting to keep buddies private until tomorrow. Why doesn't he think my explanation is sincere?

This would give boog 4 votes, except that Ong was already voting boog which I didn't notice at the time, but neither did Ong.

I agree with your Boog vote, but with the extra time we have, I'd rather it not be that close to a MAJ. Your vote gives him 4 right now.

I haven't done my vote spreadsheet yet, once I do, then I'll be able to keep better track of the votes.

I think it's funny that you try and call me out on my simple mistake, when it took you multiple tries to get the count right (or one that at least matches the mod's VC).

---------------------

Regardless, the point of my post was to not get too close to MAJ since we have lots of time.

[BooG690]

I feel like this is boog trying to not get anymore heat for the 85% post.

This was a direct response to JKDS' mistake in saying Ong bolded gabe. This was so surprising to me that I rescinded while I went back to find out what had happened.

[aubreymcfate]

I don't like that you appear to be insinuating that I'm doing something sinister in the underlined bolded statement above that you think it "worth noting".

Below is the vote count and votes that I based my statement on.



Boog has 2 votes per the mods VC.



This would give boog 3 votes.



This would give boog 4 votes, except that Ong was already voting boog which I didn't notice at the time, but neither did Ong.



I haven't done my vote spreadsheet yet, once I do, then I'll be able to keep better track of the votes.

I think it's funny that you try and call me out on my simple mistake, when it took you multiple tries to get the count right (or one that at least matches the mod's VC).

---------------------

Regardless, the point of my post was to not get too close to MAJ since we have lots of time.

Uhhhhhhh defensive much? I wasn't implying that you were doing anything "sinister" I was just correcting your mistake because, Idk, I like correct information? And thought we would all appreciate it? If I thought your mistake reflected badly on you I would have said something.

I do think this defensiveness reflects badly on you though.

[aubreymcfate]

On second thought I can kinda see how maybe it seemed like I was calling you out for being shady. Either way that wasn't my intent, I was just super tired and trying to point out discrepancies where I saw them. It was obvious to me that you and ong just got confused bc of vote count confusion.

[GatorJH]

Aubrey is flying up my wolfdar

[aubreymcfate]

Honestly, even though I can see where lilrascal is coming from, his response seems overblown. Does anyone else find that a little off? Only my partner can truly judge (since they know I'm not bullshitting) and obviously can't answer openly just yet, but I'd like to throw this out there so they can think about it.

fwiw when I review rascal's earlier posts on this page they seem villagery to me, particularly his back and forth with wuf about gabe (whether gabe was "solvey" or not) that seemed like authentic villager rapport

[OngBonga]

lynch boog

Dunno what the fuss is about, 7 is majority.

[OngBonga]

I've poe'd it to keith gabe hoopy boog. Admittedly I'm dishing out thin village reads to the likes of gator, aubrey and rascal based on tone, even though all are good enough wolves to village tone. But the four wolfy guys, I see very little reason to give them any village points. gabe is probably the most villagery out of the four, and that really isn't saying much for the others.

I think I'm wrong about drew/monkey. For a start, if they were wolves, you'd think they'd put a little more effort in to try and save the game, rather than just disappear when getting heat. Also, I'm not so sure a wolf would be so quick to crumb, especially without drew giving the nod first. drew seemed genuine when he referred to him being outed.

[aubreymcfate]

in the beginning of the game my wolves were: keith hoopy rilla gator

Rilla was there originally bc of how little he posted (actually when I came up with that he hadn't posted at all) and he didn't post much last game when we were wolves, so it felt characteristic. it also fit into the whole framework i had in my head at the time of who was villager and who was wolf, but I don't have a particularly strong wolf read on him

Perhaps gator will always seem wolfy to me since we were very closely wolfing together a couple years ago and I remember his style, but I dunno, his original gabe lynch didn't sit well with me at all

I could see gabe and/or boog being wolves too but I'd need to reread thread to develop stronger reads on that, gabe's wolf game might be so good that he swayed me


I also think it's strange that Rascal wanted us to hold off on bolding boog bc like you said ong, majority is at 7, and besides we should want a wagon to be somewhat dominant so we can see how that affects people's behavior. But for the record, I truly don't think he had ulterior motives when he made the vote count mistake, wolf or not

[OngBonga]

rilla removed wuf from his list first, and since at the time wuf was voting for rilla, it indicates he was thinking about what he was doing when he removed people. It looks to me like he's trying to tell the wolves that they won't get any clues from the order of removal. Furthermore, I wouldn't at all be surprised to see rilla lower his village game in an effort to balance out his wolf game. In fact if rilla was wolf here, I'd expect him to make more of an effort simply because he will cost the wolves the game by getting lynched.

I'm happy to put rilla in my village pile based on what little he's given.

gator is a little more tricky. He makes me nervous too, only I think I can tell when he's a villager. I think he's a villager here, but he hasn't been a wolf for a while so my soulread on him is yet to be put the the test.

rascal, I don't have a solid soulread on him because I haven't played enough with him. I know he's a good wolf. He seems villagery here, but he's my most nervous town read.

[aubreymcfate]

I agree with your rilla assessment.

reread a bit, refreshed my memory on page 2, the whole thing with boog being illogical (this post by ong pretty much sums up what i'm referencing, the whole back and forth is on that page tho)

yeah I'm good with a boog lynch for the time being

rescind keith

lynch boog


I totally think Keith is a wolf but it's not a productive wagon

[wufwugy]

so we need to out partners then? this thread is going fucking nowhere

[wufwugy]

i mean, ive had approximately the same opinion for the last like 50 hours. very little new is happening, we're just sitting around waiting for when something can happen.

[aubreymcfate]

why is this thread going nowhere? what's the urgency?

[aubreymcfate]

whoa you answered my question before i asked it, we're so *nsync

anyway, ok fair enough, i'm still torn on what advantage outing actually gives the wolves, i'm not so sure it does and am probably ok with outing

[wufwugy]

well whatever. im so bored i dont care

my list is boog keith hoopy rascal. rilla is probably v in the same way that ong said (which is a way i also said). i like aubrey for v but im not going there. smf is a veyr wolfy v style but i think i see some legitimacy in his thoughts. im holding off on gator because i never seem to get him right. gabe is more villy than he's getting credit for, but that doesnt mean he's like real villy or anything. bid looks kinda wolfy but tbh is point about boog is good.

did i miss anybody

[wufwugy]

boog looks wolf for some brow scrunchy reasons that have been pointed out by others. keith because cmon he's about as under the fray as possible. hoopy because hoopy is playing wolf hoopy. problem is that's also super busy v hoopy. rascal is just giving me vibes.

i vote for outing partners. at this point i dont even care if it's "bad". thread is dead.

[OngBonga]

Before we out, we should all name our four most likely wolf reads.

[wufwugy]

you got my four

[aubreymcfate]

boog keith hoopy gator

^ gator is weakest read

runner-ups: gabe, rascal

[wufwugy]

i think my picks for the two players i dont want to lynch the most are rilla and aubrey.

if aubrey is a wolf then she's in a much different mindset than she was last time (it's possible tho). rilla's only posts of substance of v rilla thought stuff

at this point the two people i think should be lynched the most are boog and keith

[wufwugy]

a problem is the wolves can be easily tongue tied. for example, bid could zip it up given that he knows that if he messes up like he has before, the whole team dies. it's almost like we could do something like take the top 4-5 posters from this point on and only lynch those pairs that don't include them

[wufwugy]

if we go the tongue tied route (a strong route to take), the only tongue tied players have been keith rilla bid smf hoopy. ther'es bound to be half the wolf team in there

[JKDS]

48 hours left if math is right

[OngBonga]

I'm wrong about my four, I must be. boog took a serious swing for gabe early on, no way are they wolfbros.

I guess I'm wrong about gabe. I mean did boog stop to consider if he was wrong about me when I reminded him I went for gabe? Nope, he argues that it was intentional so that I could use that in my favour. Like pushing a wolfbro who can't die is going to somehow give me village cred.

boog is more likely wolf than gabe imo. They're not both wolves though.

[GatorJH]

I think I'm wrong about drew/monkey. For a start, if they were wolves, you'd think they'd put a little more effort in to try and save the game, rather than just disappear when getting heat.

FWIW I was thinking yesterday morning that this game is a perfect one for the wolves to hide in the corners as they don't have to worry about making it to D4 or D5.

[aubreymcfate]

rereading thread and drawing up likely pairs, gator looking more V to me after this

i feel like knowing the pairs will aid us at this point

[aubreymcfate]

yeah i don't think gator is wolf

hoopy keith rascal boog

or

hoopy keith gabe boog

[aubreymcfate]

We're either totally wrong or the wolves gave up.

[gabe]

It's time to out. My partner is Keith. I think people who don't want to out are very very wrong. Hopefully this works out and everyone sees its obvious that we need all the info to make a sweet lynch. I still don't understand how this isn't obvious seeing as how we can end the game tonight if we hit right

Agree with wuf that the thread is going nowhere without it

I'm very curious who rillas, wufs, gators and ong's partners are because I'm suspicious of them. I don't think I would vote for Aubrey or boog unless their partner was someone I could see being a wolf

Sorry I can't post more. At blizzcon and busy for 10 more hours until computer time

[OngBonga]

rescind

boog's village equity just went up.

[gabe]

There's only 3 pages. Everyone can reread it

[Keith]

maybe i see now how you could have thought i meant individually. read the next sentence after the bolded, it's 10% for all three as a team.

if the first part is read as individual percentages , its perfectly logical to read the next sentence as being individually as well.Its also vague as to what you mean by the next sentence as well. are you saying that the 10% is too high for the three of them?if so and you cut it in half to 5% then you are more or less saying that the chance of all three being wolves is the same as any random three players being wolves together.

[aubreymcfate]

rescind

boog's village equity just went up.

why?


I'm going to head out bc I need to get away from the screen, I give my partner full blessings for outing us, I think it's the right way to go

[Keith]

Yeah my vote should be on boog, not gabe.

For clarity...
lynch boog

But a keith lynch is also appealing. I can't quite put my finger on it, I guess the closest I can get to how I feel with keith is he doesn't seem like he's in his comfort zone.

Just done 3* 12 hour days mixing and laying concrete and by the time i've got home , had something to eat and a soak in the bath , bed has been more appealing than werewolf.As for out of comfort zone, you know full well that my game revolves around finding discrepencies which needs posts, which are generally lacking this game.