Polygamist Werewolf

[wufwugy]

ong you say it hurts the wolves to keep them in the dark about the partners. yeah, well, it hurts the village to keep us in the dark about the partners. what happens when we lynch blind then look at the partner who dies along with him and go "oops. no wait, fucking oops. we never would have lynch him if we had known"?

regardless, the whole idea that the wolves benefit from knowing the pairs is totally false. they ALREADY know the pairs to the extent they need. they know two pairs that cannot be lynched, and every other pair, regardless of what they are, can be lynched. as long as they throw heat on a player that is not their own, they're doing damage to that pair. besides, they couldnt win by trying to organize the pairs and push through lynches.

the only way i see gabe being a wolf her is that he's RIGHT. i remember the last time we did pairs, i was a wolf and was adamant to the village that we need to reveal. the whole time i was doing that, i was telling the den that im astounded at how everybody wanted to lynch me for it because i was helping them. my strategy was "well, be more pro-v than the rest and they won't lynch you". weirdly, nobody liked the pro-v that is giving the village the mountain of info that is revealed pairs, and they lynched me for it.

[wufwugy]

if my partner doesnt do it soon, i will

[OngBonga]

wuf, what makes you think we lynch someone blind? If I'm the lynch, do you think I just silently go down? Do you think my partner does?

[OngBonga]

If gabe is a wolf, he's not right, he's desperately trying to find out who the pairs are so he can focus his attention where it needs to be for them to win.

[wufwugy]

wuf, what makes you think we lynch someone blind? If I'm the lynch, do you think I just silently go down? Do you think my partner does?

so our lynch strategy is cfd?

if that was good, it would mean we should always cfd in all our games.

[wufwugy]

If gabe is a wolf, he's not right, he's desperately trying to find out who the pairs are so he can focus his attention where it needs to be for them to win.

that isnt where they need their attention to win, and i would be surprised if the wolves dont already have a great guess who the pairs are

[OngBonga]

Where did I say we CFD?

[a500lbgorilla]

i won't vote for aubrey

Why's that?

[OngBonga]

that isnt where they need their attention to win, and i would be surprised if the wolves dont already have a great guess who the pairs are

If gabe is a wolf, then my assumption is the wolves do not know who the pairs are.

[wufwugy]

Where did I say we CFD?

what you described is a cfd

[a500lbgorilla]

that isnt where they need their attention to win, and i would be surprised if the wolves dont already have a great guess who the pairs are

A guess, though, all the same.

[wufwugy]

If gabe is a wolf, then my assumption is the wolves do not know who the pairs are.

bad assumption to make. they started out knowing 1/3rd of the pairs. for all we know, the hints dropped for the other 1/3rd were from villagers and they picked them up. they should be able to guess mine down to just two different players

[wufwugy]

A guess, though, all the same.

but it doesnt matter.

seriously, if im a wolf, i DONT want to know the pairs. maybe that's just me.

[OngBonga]

what you described is a cfd

No, a CFD is where we all panic at deadline. I didn't say anything about that. Why are you twisting my words here?

What I'm saying is that those who look like they might get lynched will claim in good time. Check out hoopy, he could see boog was in trouble, he claimed in good time. Noone is getting lynched blind.

[OngBonga]

bad assumption to make. they started out knowing 1/3rd of the pairs. for all we know, the hints dropped for the other 1/3rd were from villagers and they picked them up. they should be able to guess mine down to just two different players

My point being that if gabe is a wolf, he wants me to out my buddy so he can attempt to build a case against my partner. That implies he doesn't know who it is.

[wufwugy]

No, a CFD is where we all panic at deadline. I didn't say anything about that. Why are you twisting my words here?

What I'm saying is that those who look like they might get lynched will claim in good time. Check out hoopy, he could see boog was in trouble, he claimed in good time. Noone is getting lynched blind.

i havent twisted your words. i have assessed the implication of the logic they describe.

this strategy results in a cfd often. it also organizes the pool where any wolf attached to a not-awful looking player will most likely get a free ride to d2. villages dont like surprises. lynches need long vetting time.

[OngBonga]

Ok well the claiming strategy helps the wolves too much imo. Yes it helps us to focus our reads, but it also helps the wolves to focus their attention. You must at least see that the claiming comes at a cost, and it's a question of balance. It's not as clear cut as you and gabe seem to think.

[wufwugy]

My point being that if gabe is a wolf, he wants me to out my buddy so he can attempt to build a case against my partner. That implies he doesn't know who it is.

this doesnt actually help them. they have to have cases against everybody. if they try to organize and massage a narrow set of lynches through, they'll lose

besides, we should want what you described to happen. a fabricated case is easy to spot

[OngBonga]

CFD isn't a disaster here anyway. Why do we CFD? Because of specials, or more usually, wolves pretending to be specials. That isn't happening here. We only divert if the partner is too strong a villager read. Thehn if we CFD, the worst case scenario is we lynch someone else who was also a strong villager read.

Is anyone actually a strong villager read here? I have villager reads, but none I'd bet money on.

[wufwugy]

cfd can be a strategy in this format but i think it requires an aggressively voting group of players. we're not that, so ive abandoned the idea of wanting to use a cfd as a part of a bigger tactic to subvert the wolves in a way that they wouldnt see coming

[a500lbgorilla]

Is anyone actually a strong villager read here? I have villager reads, but none I'd bet money on.

Yes.

[OngBonga]

Yes.

Do elaborate...

[a500lbgorilla]

Yes, there are strong villager reads.

[wufwugy]

so we have six unclaimed players. four of which dont want to claim and two who do. clearly the two who do are each matched to ones who dont, and two who dont are matched together.

i honestly find it strange that any wolves would be in this situation. it's probably easier for there to be a wolf in the pair where both dont want to reveal though.

so we could be in the same kind of situation we were in before, where the players more open to reveal are the wolves, but not because they think it helps them, but because they know it doesnt and are trying to get v cred by helping the village. in this way, it makes some sense that gabe could be a wolf. i mean, i did the same exact thing as him as a wolf. with the more pushback, the harder i fought becasue i seriously was confused that i wasnt getting v cred for it. it could just be that because i was a wolf i knew that the revealed pairs didnt help me and did help the village, so i assumed the villagers would be able to see that too

[wufwugy]

ong, reassess the view that gabe and boog cant both be wolves. wolves dont play perfectly. they can do things like attack each other early then pull back later in this format

[wufwugy]

i mean, i really wanted to be a wolf this game because i had a strategy to do just that, one that would have cleared myself and my partner by about 23/rds the way through d1

[OngBonga]

Yes, there are strong villager reads.

Ok.

I mean you can say who your village reads are. It's up to you, of course.

[OngBonga]

ong, reassess the view that gabe and boog cant both be wolves. wolves dont play perfectly. they can do things like attack each other early then pull back later in this format

It's possible, of course. But it would be incredibly reckless of boog to do that in this format, and having just lost as wolf in this game, I just don't see it.

But it doesn't even matter if they are both wolves. We only need to lynch one wolf.

[OngBonga]

...and having just lost as wolf in this game, I just don't see it..

*last game, obviously.

[gabe]

ong, we have 2 lynches. if we get a wolf in either, we win the game. we should not be in the dark on either one of them

you dont have to keep explaining yourself. i know what youre saying and its not right. villagers have reads that are off all the time, so making it awkward for the wolves who put reads out there doesnt actually matter. you are tunneling on a bad idea. earlier in the game you said something like it wasnt that big of a deal to you anyway. so nows the time to take the village to level 2 today

[a500lbgorilla]

It's possible, of course. But it would be incredibly reckless of boog to do that in this format, and having just lost as wolf in this game

Why's that?

[OngBonga]

gabe I don't trust you. I dunno if I can put it any more blunt than that.

[gabe]

Why's that?

it was a general tone read at first but then the vote quote mistake seemed like very loose posting compared to last game. theres too many people with real suspicion above her

[OngBonga]

Why's that?

It would be reckless to put heat on a buddy that might result in his lynch. Why put a wolfbro against the wall right away for no reason?

[gabe]

why dont you guys like rascal's slip: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...23#post2252723

you guys all skipped over it. rilla/ong one of you must be his partner ?

[OngBonga]

why dont you guys like rascal's slip: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...23#post2252723

you guys all skipped over it. rilla/ong one of you must be his partner ?

How is omitting the word "seeing" a slip?

You're desperate here gabe.

[OngBonga]

I mean it's really, really obvious to me what rascal did there. So obvious that I can't imagine how gabe ever thinks that's a wolf slip.

I call bullshit.

[wufwugy]

i agree with ong

[a500lbgorilla]

Yes, there are strong villager reads.

[wufwugy]

i dont see how that is a wolf slip menaing what gabe thinks it does. i do see how it's just a typing slip like people normally do

[OngBonga]

Yes, there are strong villager reads.

Polly wants a cracker?

[gabe]

yea it is obvious what he did there. he forgot a word. thats a slip. his brain had some set of thoughts and thats what sentence it came up with

a desperate person usually has votes on them. thats not me. i'm trying to get my thoughts out there because i'm going to be gone starting in ~40 minutes

[wufwugy]

hmmm i have come to the realization that gabe's solvey posts could have been heavily skewed towards fellow wolves

[gabe]

gabe I don't trust you. I dunno if I can put it any more blunt than that.

you dont have to trust me. use your best possible logic circuitry and see where it takes you

[OngBonga]

lol gabe is actually trying to sell this shit.

lynch gabe

[gabe]

theres only so much time before this day is over and only some of that i'm available to help the village. i dont see how we were going to get there with what info was in the thread when i woke up.

check out the vote counts when i've been trying to get you guys thinking about this. i'm trying to get us to win the game tonight why you guys are stuck in classic WW mode

[wufwugy]

rescind rascal

rereading, really digging a gabe boog keith hoopy team.

consider this line by boog. if he's a wolf, this means that he knows that he should probably attack a fellow wolf early

Also, this game is really, really difficult for wolves because it forces hard defending. Wolves can't get away with letting any wolves die so you just find out a cluster of wolves hard defending each other and there it is.

also consider how easily and staunchly gabe defended boog. boog is lock v in gabe's mind, but his reasoning for why is about as loose as it gets.

[OngBonga]

I would dig that team too if it wasn't for boog taking a swing for gabe. Something is wrong somewhere.

[gabe]

lol gabe is actually trying to sell this shit.

lynch gabe

the only place the village was going that i didnt like was not outing partners. i think not doing so is bad village work. i've pushed this agenda while having no heat for 100+ posts because i think its smart for the village. i also had a slip-catch that no one else mentioned. this was also during a time i had no heat. i'm a villager frustrated by you thinking the wolves have night kills or something

[gabe]

wuf, i made that boog read on the fly. you made it seem cynical but it's a natural read to make after last game

also consider, if i was a wolf, would i tell boogwolf, who got cornered 8 different ways last game, to immediately stick his neck out and draw attention? that theory is tinfoil FPS

[OngBonga]

gabe you can't truly believe that what rascal did was a wolf slip.

It was a typo, and an easy one to make at that. Also an easy typo to figure out. It's null as fuckity fuck.

[wufwugy]

wuf, i made that boog read on the fly. you made it seem cynical but it's a natural read to make after last game

also consider, if i was a wolf, would i tell boogwolf, who got cornered 8 different ways last game, to immediately stick his neck out and draw attention? that theory is tinfoil FPS

you wouldnt, but boog wouldn't need prompting

your boog read doesnt seem to be considered and reconsidered.

[wufwugy]

I would dig that team too if it wasn't for boog taking a swing for gabe. Something is wrong somewhere.

the case i just made is that boog could/would do just that

[wufwugy]

plus ong somethign is always wrong somewhere. the wolf teams never make the most about of sense. there's always something screwy that doesn't seem to belong

[wufwugy]

i feel like this isnt v gabe posting

[OngBonga]

the case i just made is that boog could/would do just that

I don't see what there is to gain. Even if it causes confusion, it's not like boog can get any definite village cred for it. It makes no sense. Boog is not reckless. Even I would do that in this format.

I really don't see it.

[gabe]

gabe you can't truly believe that what rascal did was a wolf slip.

It was a typo, and an easy one to make at that. Also an easy typo to figure out. It's null as fuckity fuck.

"forgetting" a word is deeper than a typo. there isnt a reason for a typo caused by a fat finger. but there is a subconscious reason when not typing an entire multisyllable word

ong have you done any hunting this game?

[OngBonga]

I don't see what there is to gain. Even if it causes confusion, it's not like boog can get any definite village cred for it. It makes no sense. Boog is not reckless. Even I would do that in this format.

I really don't see it.

*wouldn't

gabe's gonna have a meltdown at that one.

[gabe]

you wouldnt, but boog wouldn't need prompting

your boog read doesnt seem to be considered and reconsidered.

this post was about boog where i was doing just that http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...48#post2252448

[OngBonga]

"forgetting" a word is deeper than a typo. there isnt a reason for a typo caused by a fat finger. but there is a subconscious reason when not typing an entire multisyllable word

ong have you done any hunting this game?

gabe, how you you suppose I conclude you're not a wolf with boog? Because, yes, I am hunting. Just because I'm not giving everyone a running commentary, doesn't mean I'm not looking at previous pages.

[wufwugy]

I don't see what there is to gain. Even if it causes confusion, it's not like boog can get any definite village cred for it. It makes no sense. Boog is not reckless. Even I would do that in this format.

I really don't see it.

Also, this game is really, really difficult for wolves because it forces hard defending. Wolves can't get away with letting any wolves die so you just find out a cluster of wolves hard defending each other and there it is.

Also, this game is really, really difficult for wolves because it forces hard defending. Wolves can't get away with letting any wolves die so you just find out a cluster of wolves hard defending each other and there it is.

Also, this game is really, really difficult for wolves because it forces hard defending. Wolves can't get away with letting any wolves die so you just find out a cluster of wolves hard defending each other and there it is.

Also, this game is really, really difficult for wolves because it forces hard defending. Wolves can't get away with letting any wolves die so you just find out a cluster of wolves hard defending each other and there it is.

this post means that boog's wolf hunting strategy is to find those who are defending each other. if you believe this and you are a wolf, it means that it is naturally logical for you to NOT fall into that category. boog is showing us his thoughts here and they tell us that if he is a wolf he would attack a fellow wolf

[OngBonga]

Forgetting a word is exactly the same as a typo.

[wufwugy]

this post was about boog where i was doing just that http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...48#post2252448

im not seeing much there

[OngBonga]

this post means that boog's wolf hunting strategy is to find those who are defending each other. if you believe this and you are a wolf, it means that it is naturally logical for you to NOT fall into that category. boog is showing us his thoughts here and they tell us that if he is a wolf he would attack a fellow wolf

I think you're making a leap here. I would argue that boog is being honest when he says wolves will have to hard defend one another.

Did gabe ever explain why boog was in his "will not lynch" plie?

[wufwugy]

"forgetting" a word is deeper than a typo. there isnt a reason for a typo caused by a fat finger. but there is a subconscious reason when not typing an entire multisyllable word

ong have you done any hunting this game?

but the subconscious reason you're applying to it is quite an assumption and leap.

[wufwugy]

I think you're making a leap here. I would argue that boog is being honest when he says wolves will have to hard defend one another.

Did gabe ever explain why boog was in his "will not lynch" plie?

the leap is only in assuming boog would have thoughtful consistency with himself. it is not, however, a leap to say that if boog is a wolf, he should be expected to think that attacking a wolf is a good idea. he said the complement of that, so but deduction we can assume he believes it

[wufwugy]

*by deduction

[gabe]

this is all pointless. i'm a villager

i have smf, bid, boog, hoopy and aubrey as villagers

gator/ong should not be wolfbros together

wuf/rascal and wuf/rilla are not wolfbros together

i think more of this would make sense if i knew gator, rilla, and rascal's partners exactly

[OngBonga]

But the thing is, we can't know he's attacking a wolf until we've either won or lost. Sure it makes this whole figure out thing a little more murky, but it doesn't make it murky enough to justify putting a buddy against the wall right off the bat. The risks are too high, and I think boog as wolf would understand that. I don't see hard wolf on wolf action here, more outright buddying, or fence sitting.

[gabe]

im not seeing much there

you said i didnt seem to reconsider boog, and i showed you where i did, but only for 1 post. i thought about it and didnt stick with my suspicion on him

but the subconscious reason you're applying to it is quite an assumption and leap.

its a freudian slip. the words just get typoed into a sentence that admits what his subconscious is thinking

[wufwugy]

But the thing is, we can't know he's attacking a wolf until we've either won or lost.

this isnt relevant because we're assuming "if". you're saying if he's a wolf you dont think he would act a certain way. i showed that if he's a wolf he could/would

[wufwugy]

you said i didnt seem to reconsider boog, and i showed you where i did, but only for 1 post. i thought about it and didnt stick with my suspicion on him

i dont think v gabe views it that way

its a freudian slip. the words just get typoed into a sentence that admits what his subconscious is thinking

i typo all the time, accidentally words and such. im sure you do too.

[OngBonga]

you said i didnt seem to reconsider boog, and i showed you where i did, but only for 1 post. i thought about it and didnt stick with my suspicion on him


its a freudian slip. the words just get typoed into a sentence that admits what his subconscious is thinking

So if you buy this freudian slip rubbish, then my "would" instead of "wouldn't" would imply that I have indeed took an early swing for a wolfbro in this game.

Oh, also I said "this game" where I meant "last game". Oh dear, now I've implied I'm a wolfbro with boog this game.

I've been on boog's case, and here I am giving him village cred for never being a wolf with my now most wolfy read.

It's all falling into place for you gabe. You're not even having to do any work, I'm doing it for you.

[OngBonga]

MVP = Sigmund

[wufwugy]

gubu