Luck or skill?

[Fnord]

***** Hand History for Game 430389980 *****
0/0 TexasHTGameTable (NL) - Thu Mar 04 02:50:02 EST 2004
Table Nite Owls (Real Money) -- Seat 3 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Player1 ( $37.20)
Seat 2: Fnord ( $25)
Seat 3: Player3 ( $16.15)
Seat 4: Player4 ( $28.75)
Seat 5: Player5 ( $33.40)
Seat 6: Player6 ( $14.15)
Seat 7: Player7 ( $5.80)
Seat 9: Player9 ( $155.90)
Seat 10: Player10 ( $24.25)
Player4 posts small blind (0.25)
Player5 posts big blind (0.50)
Fnord posts big blind (0.50)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Fnord [ Js, Ts ]
Player6 folds.
Player7 folds.
Player9 folds.
Player10 folds.
Player1 folds.
Fnord checks.
Player3 calls (0.50)
Player4 calls (0.25)
Player5 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Qc, 3s, 8h ]
Player4 checks.
Player5 checks.
Fnord bets (1)
Player3 calls (1)
Player4 folds.
Player5 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kc ]
Fnord bets (2)
Player3 raises (4) to 4
Fnord calls (2)
** Dealing River ** : [ 9s ]
Fnord bets (5)
Player3 raises (10.65) to 10.65
Player3 is all-In.
Fnord calls (5.65)
Creating Main Pot with $31.65 with Player3
** Summary **
Main Pot: $31.65 | | Rake: $1.65
Board: [ Qc 3s 8h Kc 9s ]
Player1 balance $37.20, didn't bet (folded)
Fnord balance $40.50, bet $16.15, collected $31.65, net +$15.50 [ Js Ts ] [ a straight, nine to king -- Kc,Qc,Js,Ts,9s ]
Player3 balance $0, lost $16.15 [ 8c Ks ] [ two pairs, kings and eights -- Ks,Kc,Qc,8c,8h ]
Player4 balance $28.25, lost $0.50 (folded)
Player5 balance $32.90, lost $0.50 (folded)
Player6 balance $14.15, didn't bet (folded)
Player7 balance $5.80, didn't bet (folded)
Player9 balance $155.90, didn't bet (folded)
Player10 balance $24.25, didn't bet (folded)

[crazyeddie]

I have a couple of questions...

1. Do you always limp in with JTs? Not a criticism, just trying to understand...
2. He played his hand almost exactly how I think I would...granted I might not even play K8o, but he limped in...called a very small bet with middle pair, then caught two-pair. The only place where his play was weak was in not betting his two-pair any stronger, and not reacting to your monster bet with the straight on the board....other than that I don't think he would put you on JT so I don't blame him for calling on the river...

Any thoughts?

[jmrogers7]

Well, based strictly on your pot odds vs. your hand odds I'd say that you made the correct call in calling your opponents post-flop raise of $2. At that point your pot odds were 5:1 and your odds of hitting your open-ended straight draw by the river was 2.2:1 (I believe that my math here is correct).

After that with no flush draw showing and no possible boat showing, I like your $5 bet on the river. Since your opponent showed the aggression in the hand it was a safe bet that he would raise you all-in.

I say, nice play! My vote goes for "skill" on this one.

[Fnord]

Here are my thoughts at each part of the hand.

Preflop:
JTs, nice hand to catch behind a newbie blind. I didn't raise it up because my hand plays well in a multi-pot with light bidding early. Maybe buying the button would have been a play here if I had limpers in front of me, but I would have risked reopening the flood gates. Also, one position off I might have gotten the button anyway.

Flop:
Gutshot straight draw, backdoor flush and my draws to a pair of Jacks or Tens might be good, but I would really worry about the possible straight that would put on the board. Bottom line is I ain't calling anything. If I was on the button it would be a no brainer to check and take the free card. But with 2 checks in front and the button to go at a new table I make a play here. Probably the weakest play of the hand. However, I'm curious to see what people are calling with. Also, I figure I got close enough to a 1 in 3 shot of taking it down right here. Bad news is the button calls. Good news is I got him heads up.

Turn:
More good news bad news. The good news is I upgraded my straight draw to a full 8 outs and the King might spook the button. Bad news is my hand still sucks and the flush ain't happening. Between all of that I decide to test the button's call and fire away. The raise was more good news bad news. I had great implied odds on the 1:5 call because I figure he's good for at least a value bet on the river if I hit. He really should have gone for more than a value raise but I guess he didn't figure I was on a draw. Anyway, easy call.

River:
Money card! 9 was probably better than the Ace, since the ace might have spooked him. I value bet figuring that if he calls I'm cool with that but with so much money out relative to his remaining chips he's likely to raise anyway. He takes it bait, hook, line and sinker.

[jmrogers7]

I'm sorry. I misread that hand. I said you had an open-ended straight fraw instead of what you had which was a gutshot. Sorry about that.

Too much poker, not enough sleep!