Flush Odds correct ?

[Toasty]

Am i right in thinking that sutied cards will only flop a flush just under 3% of the time ?

Heres what i done, I calculated the odds of not hitting a card on the first two flop cards.
no of outs non outs
hit miss 0.78 11 39/50
40% 60%(.78*.78) 0.78 11 38/49

I assumed that you would only ever hit 1 card on the first two as the odds should be close with any 2/3 flop cards.

Third flop card (to make our FD)

hit miss outs non outs
21% 79% 10 38/48

Odds of getting a flush draw =(40/100)*(21/100)

Which gives us 8.4% chance of flopping a FD.

catching on turn / river we all know is 35% with a FD so this brings us down to (8.4*0.35)=2.8%

A 2.8% chance fo catching a flush from a starting hand, this seems very low to me but believeable from my exp with these cards. I have already tried to endevour to release Kxs and A6-A9 suited as they dont make straights. This is for my Rock Solid play, tight tables I loosen up.

Can someone please correct / confirm this for me as with those %s the odds you would need to make it a +ev seem really bad, a $1 call with A6s would need to win around $70 to make it break even (STRICTLY FROM WINNING VIA FLUSH) of course there's pairs /2 pairs /trips / straights and bluffs that you can get with this hand.


What y'all think ?

[crazyeddie]

Toasty, according to Mike Caro's Odd Page,

If you begin suited and stay through
seven cards, three more (But not
four or five more!) of your suit
will turn up:

5.77% (16.3:1)

Keep in mind that this is for 3 but NOT four or five of your suit, so the odds are actually higher.

[crazyeddie]

By the way, in reviewing your math, you have excluded the possibility of

A) Flopping a complete flush
B) Flopping only 1 flush card but making your backdoor flush
C) Flopping a complete flush AND getting more flush cards to come (in case you have Ace only)


My suspicion is that the true number is somewhere around 7-8% (including 4 and 5-card flush boards)

[crazyeddie]

Found the answer for ya'

According to this site....

"The odds of taking two suited cards to the river to make a flush are 15:1 (6.4%) "

[Toasty]

thx for the speedy reply and with the odds kxs looks like a real poor hand...

[Toasty]

ok sussed it

Flush on the flop - 0.8% chance
Flush Draw on the flop - 10.9% chance
Back Door Flush on the flop - 49.6% chance

Backdoor flush making a flush on the turn/river.

4.2% Chance or a 23:1 dog of making your flush.