Russian Roulette

[heatman]

I'm really liking the multi-table tournaments at Party Poker, and have had a few good experiences in local group tourneys. I've got an observation that I'd like to get some feedback on.

I'm thinking that the best tournament players avoid going all-in pre-flop until the very late stages of these tournaments, maybe until they are in the money.

I've seen many hands where AA and KK (or something similar) end up all-in pre-flop, get beat and knocked out. I think this is a big mistake. Here's why.

AA is a 8:2 favorite over QJs. So if I go all-in with AA and QJs calls, I'll win 8 times out of 10, and lose twice. Thats fine in a ring game, because I can just reload and wait for the next opportunity - over time I'll come out ahead. I've got a strong EV and want this bet anytime I can get it.

In a tournament, I don't want this bet at all, at least not in the mid and early stages. The 20% chance of getting knocked out (or getting put so close it doesn't matter) is a big risk. I might have positive EV, but I don't get to play the long haul in a tournament - unless I've got a huge stack against potential callers with much smaller stacks.

This is like playing Russian Roulette for big money. You're odds are great (5 empty chambers:1 loaded), but the downside is too big to play at any stakes. You could win a bunch of times in a row and make a huge stack, but when you hit that one live round, its over.

Does anyone have an opposing view that I should be thinking about? Is there a way to figure in the "once you're out you're always out" into a rigorous odds calculation, or is standard EV the only tool we've got here?

[Fnord]

How else are you going to your get stack jump started? At some point you have to take a risk (unless you think you can just blind out into the money), so I can see avoiding a 55/45 type of situation. But at around 75/25 I'm liking the chance to double up, since that's often enough chips to get you to at least the bubble.

Russian Roulette is a bad metaphore. If you lose, you lose everything. If you win you gain nothing you didn't already have.

[heatman]

Probably is a bad metaphor, but what if you had a chance to play Russin Roullette for $1M? Still bad, because losing fifty buck at poker isn't like blowing your head off, but just trying to make a point.

I appreciate the point about jump starting. But I'm not saying I won't go all-in at all, I just avoid it [i]preflop[i]. Once I've seen the flop, and like it, the odds get much better. If I flop my A, I'm over 97% favorite, as long as there isn't a flush draw. I guess I'm comfortable with those odds.

But it leaves the question, how do you mathematically analyze the impact of being knocked out? My gut says 97% is okay, but 75% isn't. Is there a way to take the gut feel out of it and figure the correct play? I'd agree 75% is awesome in a ring game, but don't think the standard EV calculation applies to tourneys.

[fishstick]

AA is a 8:2 favorite over QJs. So if I go all-in with AA and QJs calls, I'll win 8 times out of 10, and lose twice. Thats fine in a ring game, because I can just reload and wait for the next opportunity - over time I'll come out ahead. I've got a strong EV and want this bet anytime I can get it.

In a tournament, I don't want this bet at all, at least not in the mid and early stages. The 20% chance of getting knocked out (or getting put so close it doesn't matter) is a big risk. I might have positive EV, but I don't get to play the long haul in a tournament - unless I've got a huge stack against potential callers with much smaller stacks.

1. if you don't like those odds, compare them to the odds you're getting when you have to do desperate all-ins later in the tourney because you're the small stack trying to stay alive.

2. most of your opponents are probably happy with these odds (i am!), thus, using AA, KK as opportunities to successfully (most of the time) double up in the early stages. you have to keep up.

[Fnord]

I appreciate the point about jump starting. But I'm not saying I won't go all-in at all, I just avoid it [i]preflop[i]. Once I've seen the flop, and like it, the odds get much better. If I flop my A, I'm over 97% favorite, as long as there isn't a flush draw. I guess I'm comfortable with those odds.

Here is where we disagree. First, you'll play a lot of SnG's without ever seeing AA, and a lot more without ever seeing a set of Aces or Kings, so lets limit our post flop discussion to a much more obtainable standard of a pair of Aces.

Ac Kd vs Qh Jh

flop:
Ad Qc 4s 81/19 favorite
Ad Qc 4h 77/23 favorite
Ad Qc Ts 75/25 favorite
Ah Qc 4h 50/50

How are these situations better than your pre-flop odds with Aces or Kings wired? Also, consider your pre-flop win rate with AA/KK all-in pre-flop will be higher that your showdown win rate because the other player(s) may fold.

I understand where you're going with this, but you're not there yet...

[Bite]

I'm thinking that the best tournament players avoid going all-in pre-flop until the very late stages of these tournaments, maybe until they are in the money.

First of all, I agree with Fnord and Fishstick on this matter. Now to the quote. I think that the ONLY reason that the best tournament players avoid it pre-flop is that they will not get called. At least not in a tour where the best tournament players play. On a cheap online tour or a free roll it's usually a great idea to move all in pre-flop with AA from any position cause u probably get called by 55 or A7o. AND there are often re-buys or add-ons in the beginning of the tour and that makes it absolutely WRONG not to take the chance to double up early. Besides, solid players win, overly tight/scared players lose in the long tourney run. Maybe it's possible to beat the cheap tours by playing very tight but not the big ones. You will get run over. But on the other hand I think there is no reason to go all in with "marginal" hands like AK for example pre-flop at an early stage of the tour unless it's still re-buy-time. Coinflips are bad, advantage is good.

[Toasty]

Yeah I agree too I have just re-read Sklanskys Tourney book again and in the hand quiz section there was a q regarding AA as a astarting hand it was.

Early in a NLHE Tourney
You are dealt AA in mid position, three people call whats you rnext move.

I thought it would be push all in, but the answer was to raise but by as much as you can and be called by one player. I've been raising As in tourney recently but still to much to be called, i'm just to scared of getting beat i guess. I'm going to bet them more for value and see how it works out.

My point - someone mentioned that good players will not go all in with AA and there right its not because they are scared of losing they just want to get the most chips they can with them.

[heatman]

So, I'm definitely in the minority position here. I appreciate the feedback, and I've got to read Sklansky's book. I'm continuously reading Theory of Poker, glad to hear the tournament book sounds valuable.

One flaw I see in the counter arguments is the assumption that the only way to build a stack is to go all-in pre-flop. We all know you can build a pretty hefty stack without ever putting your whole stack at risk.

I do like the idea of going for one caller with a big starting hand, and would do that in a heart beat, but hesitate to go all-in to do so. A heavy bet that gets chips in the middle, limits the bad beat possibility, and leaves with with some chips to re-build makes sense. It leaves me with the question of what if the guy comes back with a bet that does put me all in.

I'm refining my argument a little bit, and this dialog has been really helpful for me to understand what I should be doing differently and why.

I'll be back!

[Fnord]

The other big flaw here is that we're only talking about hands that go to showdown. However, there is a paradox here. If you aren't willing to go to showdown (all-in if need be) with marginal positions, another player that is can run you over...

[Toasty]

If someone comes back at you on your pre-flop raise your next move is to move all in without question. 1v1 i'm not sure of the odds AA has but i'm sure its HUGE!. Back to sklankey (The only time you would ever fold aces is if you were in a super saterlite, top 3 won seats to the WSOP. You have a huge chip lead and the second biggest stack makes a big bet. You fold because you have already won your seat and risking more chips is futile)

This according to DS is the ONLY time ever you consider folding aces before the flop.

As for my earlier comment i believe the next play after you get 1 caller is to push all in on the flop, obviously if there were 3 suited cards or 3 straight cards, you may play differently!

[Badfinger]

After many a tournaments I can offer this:

Tight early is good.

Ultra tight is NOT.

My rule of thumb in a NON-rebuy online tourney is now this:

I give myself half the starter chips to fart around with while the blinds are low, and if I reach the 50% mark, I tighten up....

Most of the time I never hit 50% 8)

I won't go AI with AA PF, but I will call an AI with it...

I prefer to bet 50% of my stack with AA and see if flop looks dangerous, and if not, in goes the rest.... if the flop gives my AA a heavenly hand, then I slowplay it...

Other lessor hands I use judgement of the table conditions/players to determine what to do...

-Bf

[Fnord]

I won't go AI with AA PF, but I will call an AI with it...

I still don't get that. If there are enough chips on the table to make it worth your while, why not give yourself 2 ways to win by pushing in?

[Ragingguitarist18]

I agree, theres no reason to put your whole stack in jeopardy before the flop in early stages of a tournament. The only exceptions would be if someone else puts you all in, then its a must call, or if somebody else raises and you can't reraise without betting half your stack, then you might as well go all in.

I don't know about you heatman, but I find I get most of my chips in multitable tournaments with raising preflop, getting 1 or maybe 2 callers, and having them fold to my bet on the flop and pickup up a nice pot. I don't go to a showdown very often.

[Badfinger]

I want flop insurance is all.... half my stack is typical a big bet in itself.

If I have AA and flop comes: KKQ or 89T all of one suite, AA suddenly doesn't feel so good.

Avoiding busting out is always top priority, I can make up for lost chips and often do rather quickly.

I don't want to set myself AI unless I have to.... calling someone else though who goes AI in front of me especially with fewer chips then me is easy call with AA. If I was on the bubble with AA with 2 AI's already in front of me, I might actually pass.... especially if it set me AI to call, once I am in the money, I definitely change tactics.

87s is actually a decent hand against AA, so I have been reading lately.

I prefer to see the flop then go AI... Sometimes that nasty 72o BB is a monster with flops... 8)

-Bf

[Ragingguitarist18]

i don't know about that, bubble or not, im calling that all in, if it was on the bubble for a sat, then I'd agree.

6-7 isn't a decent hand against AA, its just that with a suited connector you can get a flop or many times a straight/flush draw that will crack AA, I wouldn't call a big raise with it though.

[AllinLife]

cool

[Aceofone]

Fnord is completely right about AA.
Allin if you think you'll be called. 8:2 Ill take that everyday, twice on weekends, thats an edge you DREAM of having.

Poker is all about having an edge, some joker calls with QJs or something like that. Ill win 80% of the time, so 8 tourneys, I'll have an early stack advantage, Ill do that without hesitation or regret. If I get beat, so what, it happens.

KK on the other hand, I think its best to raise hard, and take the flop for what its worth, A23 all suited, im gonna slow down unless one of my kings is suited to the flop. Everyone here knows how the Ax crowd loves to see flops.

NLHE is all about balls. The winners are the guys with balls, LHE on the other hand requires far more calculation, no playing by the seat of your pants. -sorry to offend anyone, but notice all successful players are extremely aggressive with the best of it.- (unless they're trapping, but thats postflop).

Sorry for the rant. Feel free to flame me