Wondering if this fold was ok

[TylerK]

I'm not really much of a MTT player, but I'll play one of the cheap ones at Stars from time to time just for fun. I was wondering about this hand I folded that could have tripled me up. It was the 18th hand of the tournament, I had almost no read on the players, and I figured it wasn't worth the risk at that point. On the other hand, had I called, I would have been in a pretty good position to make some plays, and if I lost, I would have only put in a minimal time investment. What do you guys think?

*********** # 18 **************
PokerStars Game #952485754: Tournament #3781052, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2004/12/12 - 20:15:29 (ET)
Table '3781052 112' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: Morphling29 (800 in chips)
Seat 2: drudogg21 (1460 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 3: Bigdaddywill (4590 in chips)
Seat 4: timmydime22 (1800 in chips)
Seat 5: tteezz (1400 in chips)
Seat 6: kennydeeb (1440 in chips)
Seat 7: TylerK (1550 in chips)
Seat 8: imcamodified (1840 in chips)
Seat 9: mrwinky (2620 in chips)
Morphling29: posts small blind 10
drudogg21: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TylerK [Jd Jc]
Bigdaddywill: raises 20 to 40
timmydime22: raises 1760 to 1800 and is all-in
tteezz: folds
kennydeeb: folds
TylerK: folds
imcamodified: folds
mrwinky: folds
Morphling29: folds
drudogg21: folds
Bigdaddywill: calls 1760
*** FLOP *** [Qh Js 4d]
*** TURN *** [Qh Js 4d] [3d]
*** RIVER *** [Qh Js 4d 3d] [2c]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Bigdaddywill: shows [7h 7d] (a pair of Sevens)
timmydime22: shows [As 7s] (high card Ace)
Bigdaddywill collected 3630 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3630 | Rake 0
Board [Qh Js 4d 3d 2c]
Seat 1: Morphling29 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: drudogg21 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Bigdaddywill showed [7h 7d] and won (3630) with a pair of Sevens
Seat 4: timmydime22 showed [As 7s] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 5: tteezz folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: kennydeeb folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: TylerK folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: imcamodified folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: mrwinky (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[AllinLife]

Seat 7: TylerK (1550 in chips)
Morphling29: posts small blind 10
drudogg21: posts big blind 20

don't let morons alter solid poker

[michael1123]

figured it wasn't worth the risk at that point.

I've heard some people mention things like that, and personally I think that's a really bad way to think about it. If you're playing within your bankroll, I think you should be most willing to gamble early on, with the little bit of time invested, as you've mentioned.

When you should be thinking "its not worth the risk at this point" is late in a tourney when you're nearing the money or a big money increase or you're at a final table where every spot will increase your payout a great deal.

Remember, if you're a winning poker player, your poker time is money. Wasting 2 hours to bubble out before the money is actually losing money. So, in a similar situation, I think you should be more willing to gamble early on than later on.

Different case if you have a decent read though. There's many times you do need to fold JJ preflop, but if you have a feeling there's no bigger overpair, I think its best to call here.

[Toasty]

I'd fold here as you are only getting roughly 1:1 on your money, with QQ I'd call at 1:1 but JJ is a coin flip vs AQ so it's probably not worth it. Also a few people like to push all-in with AA hoping to get a call.

If he had previously pushed all-in already then I'd call it without blinking. with SNGs especially early you haven't commited much time and can re-join one within a minute anyway.

I think a call or a fold here are pretty even, you lose nothing from folding and when you call half the time i'd expect to lose and the other half i'd expect to double up...

[michael1123]

Ah yeah, I missed that the 2nd call was behind you. Easier fold then, as the 3rd guy was really giving you the great odds if neither of them had and overpair.

As long as this isn't a rebuy, this is a fine fold. But its a hand that can completely go either way as well. Both of these guys should get notes added about their play in this hand, which could pay off in future tournies with them.

So the only real problem I have with it is the mentality that you mentioned about not wanting to risk it this early. To me, it makes a hell of a lot more sense to make a risky call early rather than later on.

[tdmlb24]

I think that was a good fold preflop, even if you had the odds in your favor for winning it. Better to keep the same amount of chips than being out early.

[michael1123]

Don't make me go on the same rant again, TDM.

Take the "early" out of that post and it'd be fine. I really think this concept of "losing early is worse than losing later on" is very detrimental to the success of a tournament player.

If you're ever going to make an iffy call in a case like this where you're not short stacked or even in the pot at all, make it now instead of later. If you're never going to make a call like this, that's fine too, but the early part, if anything, should add to your likelyhood of calling, not the other way around.

There ... you did it ... mini-rant. I hope you're happy.

[a500lbgorilla]

I think it's the opposite. If you make the call later when the chip totals are larger compared to what you'll need to make the final table AND the fact that the pot you're making this iffy call into might propel you to the final table is reason enough to wait and gamble later. Even if you win the early pot, its a long way to the final table.

-'rilla

[michael1123]

Gorilla, I agree if we're talking about after you've made the money, especially in a SNG. But why would you choose to wait until you're deep into the tourney and nearing the money to make an iffy all-in call, where you're more likely to be way behind (overpair) than way ahead (underpair)?

Its true that winning the pot later on would result in you getting more chips, but if we're talking about an overbet similar to this its really not the type of situation you want to call in that late outside of the money. Its different if you're short stacked, but here Tyler is clearly an average stack, and as an average stack late you certainly have enough chips to be able to avoid complete gambles like this without a read. If a maniac shoves all in like this, and you've seen him doing it with low pairs and A-rag type hands, then yeah, you should certainly be willing to gamble that he doesn't have a higher pocket pair this time. But typically, it would be best to avoid the equal stacks and save this type of call for when the small stacks shove in, since its not only less risk for you, but also they're more desperate to make a move.

Anyway, I can see a reason to say that its worth the gamble even late and nearing the money or a big money increase, in trying to win and not just place, but I don't see why if you'd make the call late you wouldn't early. True, even if you win the hand early you're a long way from getting far, but its a hell of a start. Being a big stack, even early, aids you in your efforts of getting more and more chips, especially once the blinds go up to being worth stealing.

Doubling up early, even with all the time to go before making the money, surely has to greatly increase your chances of getting there, which in turn greatly increases your chances of making the final table. Plus again, I think the time commited to the tourney makes a huge difference.