fold AQs on river ?

[bspahn]

i figured the pot odds justify my call on the turn, what do you think ? just luck of the draw ? analysis please. thanks!

Started at 03/Jan/05 17:23:26

Wayn052 is at seat 0 with $4.60.
Ricky Fingers is at seat 1 with $21.75.
Hugemanwaz is at seat 2 with $25.30.
matcoach is at seat 3 with $10.15.
raf1919 is at seat 4 with $9.65.
rageshe is at seat 5 with $12.30.
AssDouble is at seat 6 with $28.55.
dud54 is at seat 7 with $12.55.
suzie79 is at seat 8 with $20.50.
JayyDoggB is at seat 9 with $8.10 (sitting out).
The button is at seat 8.

Wayn052 posts the small blind of $.10.
Ricky Fingers posts the big blind of $.25.

Wayn052: -- --
Ricky Fingers: -- --
Hugemanwaz: -- --
matcoach: -- --
raf1919: -- --
rageshe: -- --
AssDouble: -- --
dud54: -- --
suzie79: Qh Ah

Pre-flop:

Hugemanwaz calls. matcoach folds. raf1919 folds.
rageshe calls. AssDouble folds. dud54 calls.
suzie79 raises to $.65. Wayn052 folds. Ricky
Fingers calls. Hugemanwaz calls. rageshe calls.
dud54 calls.

Flop (board: Kd Tc 8h):

Ricky Fingers checks. Hugemanwaz checks. rageshe
bets $.25. dud54 calls. suzie79 calls. Ricky
Fingers folds. Hugemanwaz calls.

Turn (board: Kd Tc 8h Kh):

Hugemanwaz checks. rageshe bets $1.50. dud54 folds.
suzie79 calls. Hugemanwaz folds.

River (board: Kd Tc 8h Kh Ts):

rageshe bets $2.50. suzie79 folds. rageshe is
returned $2.50 (uncalled).



Hand #3858651-551 Summary:

$.35 is raked from a pot of $7.35.
rageshe wins $7.
----------------------------------------------------------------

[a500lbgorilla]

Raise the flop or turn for information. You were passively calling down for a pair and missed. You were clearly beat but it's difficult to say what the other guy had. Best case scenario is you call and split. Calling in hopes of splitting the pot is not profitable poker.

-'rilla

[bspahn]

so i likely let him stay in too long, or he just had me beat, i just cant be certain as i never re-raised?

is it fairly common though to just bet with high card, or even raise with it like you're suggesting. I realize i had a gut shot but the chances aren't really that good. The other thing I was considering is even if I get an over, what are the chances of some trips happening.

[FlyingSaucy]

Fold the turn.

On the flop you've got a gutshot against 4 opponents who called your preflop raise. Flop is KT8 rainbow. So it's pretty safe to assume one of them has a K. Your 7 outs to beat a pair of kings is probably good enough to call the .25 bet, plus there is the runner flush for you.

The 2nd king comes out on the turn, suddenly your outs drop to 4 assuming no one has the boat, and your outs drop to 0 if someone does. With the approximately 1/2 pot sized bet, you can't raise, and you certainly can't call here with such bad pot odds.

[bspahn]

thanks, that's a good way of looking at it. i was more thinking heads up against the one guy what my odds were..

[bspahn]

i belive my reasoning for the 1.50 call on a 4$ pot + $1.50 bet was that my odds of getting the straight ace high or the flush ace high were good enough... its something like 19 + 8.7% or something ... am i wrong ?

[twosevoff]

Fold the turn.

The 2nd king comes out on the turn, suddenly your outs drop to 4 assuming no one has the boat, and your outs drop to 0 if someone does. With the approximately 1/2 pot sized bet, you can't raise, and you certainly can't call here with such bad pot odds.

The king was a 2nd heart, so that gave him another 7 or 8 outs assuming he's not drawing dead to a boat.

[FlyingSaucy]

The king was a 2nd heart, so that gave him another 7 or 8 outs assuming he's not drawing dead to a boat.

Oh yea, I didnt notice that. But yea, even still that's too big of a bet to call.

[Running Gag]

Just to make this a easier decision:

I notice that yer on the button, with three limpers in front of you, and the blinds to go. Why such a small (barely over 2xBB) bet preflop? You have position, a bunch of limpers, and a good but vulnerable hand, why aren't you raising harder to weed out hands that could possibly beat you?

[bspahn]

how many outs realistically would i have had, is my math wrong about the ~ 26% or so pot odds to get to the river ?

AQs isn't that strong but I guess in this case it would warrant more than a 2.6xBB bet, lets say around 3.5 or 4xBB ($1) mainly due to my positioning and limpers ?