Theory Exercise #3

[IowaSkinsFan]

You are playing in 1/2 HU game. Your opponent is a tight and somewhat aggressive, willing to put all his money in when the situation is in his favor, but never does something totally out of line. He plays pretty loose pre, not folding to that many 3bets, but not 4betting a lot either.

You have AA in the BB 130bbs deep. Opp opens to $6, you 3bet to $20, he calls.

Flop comes Q87 two spades, you have none. You bet out $20 he calls. Pot is now $80, you have 220 behind.

Turn is the Q of clubs.

Whats your plan for the rest of the hand and why?

[Dragon Slayer]

I have never played HU so I dont know a lot of dynamics there. im sure its much more agro than 6 max. How does this look for his 3 bet calling range? JJ-77,AQs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,JTs,AQo,KQo. You say hes pretty in line, I Would think he 3 bets this flop with sets and strong draws. He could be floating thinking our CBet is standard. Seems like someone we dont want to give initiative in the hand to.
I think I bet again on the turn $60, i think its safe to fold to a raise. River im a little unsure of what do to on different cards rolling off.
hope i dont sound like to much of a tard.

[Ravageur]

Maybe i'm not putting enough thought into this but i'm probably just taking the standard bet/fold 54ish. I just can't see us getting called by worse if we c/raise and c/call just seems to put us in horrible place where we are liable to make an incorrect fold or call (does that make sense). I guess we can c/fold but there's still value to be had to his 8x and j9/j10 hands with 1 club.

[BigPapi]

Rav, there is no club draw? I agree on bet/fold about 55 which sets up stacks nicely (even though unlikely we can get a 3rd street of value perhaps). He won't raise draws on this turn since he would have raised flop and he plays pretty straight forward. The second Q makes us having one more unlikely and he will call down lighter.

[IowaSkinsFan]

You guys are forgetting river.

[BigPapi]

If he calls turn we have slightly less then pot left. Also since the board pairs it's getting even more unlikely he has a draw and more likely he has something with showdown value. I doubt he'll call off his stack with less then a Q here or try anything fancy if we check(like turn a hand with showdown value into a bluff). A smaller bet (like 66) leaves us with an awkward stack and the problem is it looks to much like we want to get value

[griffey24]

I would bet the turn. I expect most of his draws to either have raised flop, or probably will call down. I don't think he'll ship draws now, since Qx is definitely in our range. I'd bet 55ish on turn and probably b/f. If he calls I'll probably check re-eval most rivers.

[Marshall28]

Yeah but how good is our opponent? Is he like a standard 200nl reg or is he a good hand reader and is he capable of multi-level thinking?

[Marshall28]

Also since the board pairs it's getting even more unlikely he has a draw and more likely he has something with showdown value.

The exact opposite is actually true...

[BigPapi]

I kinda see where you're coming from since there are less combo's of hands with showdown value
now, but I don't see him calling 2 streets with a draw, especially since he would most likely not even have nutdraws.

[griffey24]

I meant when he calls turn, not before turn action. Or do you mean that as well? I kinda see where you're coming from since there are less combo's of hands with showdown value
now, but I don't see him calling 2 streets with a draw, especially since he would most likely not even have nutdraws.

I don't know. I think people might be more likely to call a draw now, cause they feel as though they can rep a "slow played Q" on the river if its checked and they jam. Whereas before, there would have been very very few hands that would call flop, call turn and then jam river if checked to them.

The same logic behind people floating very dry A high or K high boards etc in position. They feel they can float these boards, since they can rep "slow played value hands".. if at any point its checked to them on later streets.

[BigPapi]

Ah yes, that's definitely a possibility.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

If this is "you're in a 6max game and you 3bet the button raise from the bb" its basically the same thing.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

actually nvm the description is too loose.

[Ravageur]

oh I meant spade, not club draw obv. I would probably shove any blank river (non J-6-8-spade, those i would c/fold) hoping he underrepped his hand and has 99-JJ or hero calls with an 8. I don't think c/call is good because he's never gonna valuetown himself and I can't see him calling the turn without showdown value and he probably doesn't have just a bare As since he's raising the flop with most of those so it's c/fold or shove and i like shove more.

[revolvingiris]

willing to put all his money in when the situation is in his favor

Does this not play a roll on this street?

[tstrout]

I think he raises your weak flop bet with a queen in his hand, so he probably doesn't have one. I'd fire again with 60 and if he raises, put it all in. He's bluffing.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Ahhh forgot about this one. Here is my answer.

I think betting and folding to a raise on the turn is best, checking and folding the river to a bet.

There are some pretty basic reasons why betting the turn would be superior to checking. Worse hands will call a bet; worse hands cant draw out for free.

But this hand represents a concept I have been incorporating in my game recently that I feel is a significant concept when considering what to do with a hand, but may be too general. The concept that really stands out when considering what to do in this hand: Which line do I get bluffed the least?

I could also consider: Which line do I get bluffed the most? But I am using a concept congruent with my strategy. I believe that if I put all my money in the pot, I am going to lose. There are too many hands that are calling a cbet on the flop that are beating me (AQ/KQ/QJ/88/77/QQ). But there are also a lot of hands that could possibly float this flop, or hands that may turn themselves into bluffs. But even though an opponent may very well bet turn and river if we check to them, we are still going to want to fold. There simply are not enough bluffs in his range to warrant calling down. That is my opinion, but I strongly stand by it. Given this assumption, we want to take a line where our opponent bets as a bluff the least. In my experience, if we bet the turn and check the river we will see less bluffs on the river shove than we would see bluffs when we check the turn and he bets the turn and river.

It essentially goes back to the more basic concept that we are always trying to balance our range well and always trying to keeping our opponents range unbalanced. When we check the turn, our opponent balances his range well, and we lose money. But when we bet the turn and check the river, it is very hard for our opponent to logically deduce he can call the turn with a draw and shove river as a bluff. And he may think any shove will look too much like a bluff and we are trapping him with AQ/KQ which we very well may play the same way. It is hard to figure out how to play optimally against our bet/bet/check range in this situation.

I can't tell you how many times I will put money in the pot only to put my opponent in a situation where he can easily balance his range with bluffs and made hands. In my opinion, doing this is what ultimately causes your red line to decrease the most (and I know you guys get depressed about your red line). When you are considering taking a line, make sure you are thinking about how your line is going to affect your opponents range balancing, and be inclined to take the line that makes it harder for him to balance his range well.

[minSim]

What is your opinion on the hands you might get another street of value from (some or all of 8x-JJ)?

Do you think it's more likely they call a 2barrel instead of;
- bet turn when checked to ?
- bet river when turn checks en you check river ?
- call river bet when turn checks ?

[shakesss]

What is your opinion on the hands you might get another street of value from (some or all of 8x-JJ)?

Do you think it's more likely they call a 2barrel instead of;
- bet turn when checked to ?
- bet river when turn checks en you check river ?
- call river bet when turn checks ?

Its unlikely that 8x-jj will call two bets, turn and river, but will probably call one. By taking ISF's line we get one street of value, and an easy showdown. If we check turn for pot control, he might bet turn and turn his hand into a bluff on the river, and we cant call. In this case we lose two bets, instead of winning one. This is also only for the range u specified. He might pick up checking turn as weakness and barrel turn and river, in which case we lose the pot as well.

Awesome red line plug. Makes sense.

[minSim]

shakesss, I don't play those games, but I assume it's unlikely someone is turning a hand as good as 8x-JJ into a bluff very often.

Also I was mostly asking it because I'm interested in how to get the most value out of that range. Basically, the turn decision is not as hard imo because the board is drawy enough that we're barreling a good amount of draws, so we can easily barrel a hand as good as AA for value, expecting to get value from draws and 8x-JJ a lot.

I didn't really see the worse made hands mentioned in ISF's response, but as I think on board like this a turn bet is more likely to get called then a river bet (when turn checks), I think it's another strong argument for betting turn.

It's actually seems more interesting if you think 8x-JJ will fold to a turn bet, but i.e. will bet the river when turn checks.

[revolvingiris]

-I think betting and folding to a raise on the turn is best, checking and folding the river to a bet.

-There are some pretty basic reasons why betting the turn would be superior to checking. Worse hands will call a bet; worse hands cant draw out for free.

-Which line do I get bluffed the least?

-Which line do I get bluffed the most? But I am using a concept congruent with my strategy. I believe that if I put all my money in the pot, I am going to lose.

-But even though an opponent may very well bet turn and river if we check to them, we are still going to want to fold. There simply are not enough bluffs in his range to warrant calling down. That is my opinion, but I strongly stand by it.

Why is bet/folding a better line when if called we're check/folding river all the time? Why not just check/fold always (turn) and save a bet if always folding river? You stated that worse hands will call a turn bet but doesn't that also set up villain to balance his bluffs on the river when we check? It seems to me that it would set up an either totally behind/ahead river decision.

If I was going to bet/fold (turn), check/fold (river)...wouldn't check/fold (turn), check/call (river) cost basically the same and win some % of the time? I understand that we are letting draws get there cheaply but in a situation where we are either going to win small or loose big. It seems checking both streets for pot control + showdown would cost the same.

I'm sure your correct but I'm confused.

[pjpat]

isen't check/raising an option on turn?

[revolvingiris]

isen't check/raising an option on turn?

not really, what do you do when villain shoves over? Or, whats your river action if villain calls your check/3bet?

The issue is that villain has a ton of this board in his range so we have to be careful about giving him opportunities to balance his bluffs (ie we have to fold when he jams).