$1/$2 live game: bluff-catching with QQ

[baudib]

I could have flipped a coin on what to do on every street.

Villain in this hand is the host of a small private game. Definitely capable of making odd moves. He generally overbets the pot with monsters, but usually his bluffs (after people have shown weakness) are also overbets.
Have never seen him run elaborate 3-street bluffs. He does like to bluff tho and is always surprised when people make "hero calls" against him.

6 handed

UTG $250ish
UTG+1 $130
MP $150
CO (hero) $275
Button $450
SB $175
BB $300

UTG limps (could have anything), 1 fold, MP calls (could have anything), Hero raises to $16 with . 3 fold, UTG calls (has pocket pairs, Ax, broadways, possibly JJ -- it's his well-publicized policy of never raising or reraising with JJ, he can limp AK sometimes too), MP calls (could have anything).

Flop: :Td:
pot is $51
UTG bets $11, MP calls $11.

I really want to raise here, because I suspect this is a feeler bet and not any kind of value bet. He has something like 99, a T, or a weak draw (J9/AJ/AQ) and wants me to define my hand. MP would raise a king, so I have him on a T or straight draw.

Instead I call $11.

Turn:
UTG bets $30, MP folds

I want to fold, but it's such a weird bet. Now I think he might have a king and he'll never believe I have one now, and I picked up a bit of equity against hands I'm behind. MP's fold is interesting, as his flop call/turn fold range is mostly AT/T8- (he'd call with a pair + gutshot, raise 2 pair or better)/straight draws. It means MP's range had fewer combos of QJ/J9/AJ, and puts more of them in UTG's hand.

I call $30

River: :Th:

UTG bets $60

Now I can't beat anything but air, but I still think he'd make a bad overbet with a really strong hand, like a straight or trips. I think he MIGHT be value betting Kx, but he'd check KJ- I think. I haven't shown strength and I'm pretty sure he knows exactly what I have, a pair that doesn't exactly love this board.

I said, "I wonder if we have the same hand (implying AK/KQ)," and he says, "I'm pretty certain we don't." This makes me not want to call, as it might mean a true monster (88, QJ, the unlikely TT/KT). He sort of chuckles, which bothers me, as he usually acts very serious when making a big bluff.

Are the pot odds just too tempting to fold this, or do I fold it precisely because of this?

edit: i had the flop cards wrong, it was an 8c on the flop.

[xxbobbyzxx]

First off, this is awesome that you thought enough to present this here! lol I happen to be the Villain (great choice of descriptors) in this case, and would like to chime in, albeit briefly.

#1, i'm really NOT that much of a bluffer. I usually lean on the side of letting hands go if I feel I'm climbing uphill. I'm usually not that guy who will push you around with nonsense. But baudib and I have only played 3-4x together, and clearly he's wildly poker analytical ;), so it makes sense that he didn't know what to do.

#2, fact is, I bet pretty perfectly on each street on this hand. Anyone who thinks it mattered that I had AJ in the hole should go play sit & go's for $20 :) With a King on the board, maybe he could justify calling the turn...but the $60 on the river - unless he's got a dead read and didn't think I had squat - reeks of value, and 8/10 should not be called. Well it was and he did, and kept asking me if it was a good/right call, and since he pulled it in, the answer had to be 'yes'...but in the end, to get that far in the future might not be as profitable next time ;)

Wait'll he posts our Q-10 hand later lol...

~bobbyz

[baudib]

I have to say that Jose (MP) folding on the turn leaned things a bit toward calling, because I felt he was on a gutshot draw and he would never fold a gutshot with a pair (J9) or gutshot with an over (AQ/AJ), so I figured he had the T and made it more likely that YOU had the gutshot or QJ. the pot odds make it a tough fold to be honest, but as i said i was pretty perplexed on each street. I never thought it was likely that you had a king because I have seen you play top pair vs. PFR.

The QT hand requires no analysis, I knew you had nothing, but you knew I had nothing, and you made the ballsier move. it's too bad i didn't have 88 or something.

[Fnord]

Pre-flop: Standard.
Flop: Meh. Priced in to see a turn. I might jam it, but I'm crazy and it's probably a really bad play.
Turn: *shrug*
River: I dump it here minus a better read.