$100nl - Bet or Check/Call River?

[spoonitnow]

Villain is 18/10/3.8

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($106.40)
MP2 ($57.40)
MP3 ($82.60)
CO ($100.55)
Button ($153.40)
SB ($23)
BB ($36.30)
Hero ($100)
UTG+1 ($106.50)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 4, 4.
Hero raises to $4, 5 folds, Button calls $4, 2 folds.

Flop: ($9.50) 4, 9, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $8, Button calls $8.

Turn: ($25.50) J (2 players)
Hero bets $18, Button calls $18.

River: ($61.50) 2 (2 players)
Hero ...

I think it's kind of obvious that villain has either the nut flush draw or the nut flush and so this should be a check/call. Am I missing anything?

[Jack Sawyer]

Check only if you know he'll bet, then call him.
Betting out is best if you have a read that he'll call you down. Unless villain has a made flush, in which case he'll be raising you here...


I think I like check/call here more.

[spoonitnow]

Check only if you know he'll bet, then call him.
Betting out is best if you have a read that he'll call you down. Unless villain has a made flush, in which case he'll be raising you here...

I think I like check/call here more.

That's what I'm saying, I don't think he calls unless he has something like the fluke AA-QQ with the flush draw which seems extremely unlikely given the preflop action.

Just wondering if I'm missing anything like other possible hands he could have.

[shysti]

question what does this mean:

Villain is 18/10/3.8

I know it refers to the PT stats right but what exactly? I feel like a noob asking it.

[Warpe]

VP$IP%/PFR%/AF

I c/c as well 'cause I don't want to call a raise/push.

[spoonitnow]

VP$IP%/PFR%/AF

I c/c as well 'cause I don't want to call a raise/push.

Do you call a push after checking?

[Warpe]

depends on my read on opp...a push will often be a bluff, but pushing the nuts is the all the rage these days...there's not enough read to say

[Jack Sawyer]

thinktank
did you see villain push and showdown the nuts earlier?
or did you see him bet for value?

[shysti]

/AF = ???

Edit: nevermind aggression factor right?

[spoonitnow]

/AF = ???

Edit: nevermind aggression factor right?

Right.

Anything I knew about his recent showdowns I can't recall at the moment.

I check/called about 3/4ths of the pot and he had A9 with the nut draw.

[sauce123]

bet/fold
or
bet/call

dont check/call

[IowaSkinsFan]

he doesnt just have the nut flush draw or nut flush.

I like bet/fold.

[spoonitnow]

he doesnt just have the nut flush draw or nut flush.

I like bet/fold.

Explain? I don't know of any other hands that call two bets here without raising or folding or something.

P.S. I probably should have said high flush/high flush draw instead of nut, it's what I was thinking when I typed it.

[Alexos]

bet/fold and bet/call are wayy much better than c/c

reasoning is he will put you on a missed Acx or Kcx and call with a pair or two, and if he raises you can either:

1)call because hes a lagtard maniac
2)fold b/c he'd never bluff on this board

You miss a lot of value with c/c

[martindcx1e]

i'm a fan of b/f here

[wufwugy]

Yeah, I bet/fold. Weaker still calls sometimes, and only stronger hands raise.

[Jack Sawyer]

If we bet, what would be a proper betsize?

[wufwugy]

$25 is good. $30 works too.

[Ash256]

I vote $31 b/f here.

[bode]

i still like a c/c if you bet your draws normally.