$100nl - Analysis of a Set Hand IP vs Tight Player

[spoonitnow]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($18)
UTG ($94.75)
Hero ($164.65)
MP1 ($205)
MP2 ($57.90)
MP3 ($127.90)
CO ($24.60)
Button ($89.85)
SB ($28.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 4, 4.
UTG raises to $5, Hero calls $5, 6 folds, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($15.50) 4, T, 3 (3 players)
BB checks, UTG bets $7, Hero calls $7, BB folds.

Turn: ($29.50) 5 (2 players)
UTG bets $8, Hero ...

Villain is 14/4/0.5. The following is my analysis of the action in the hand so far post-flop with the assumption that villain's preflop raise is going to be QQ+, AK most of the time.

On the flop there are 6 possible combinations of AA/KK/QQ each and 16 possible combinations of AK. It's *slightly* more likely then that villain has an overpair.

Suppose that instead of calling we raise the flop. This has a benefit of possibly disguising my hand, but at what price? Assume for a moment that villain has QQ+. Then he could put us on 33, 44, TT, JJ, or QQ possibly, and he might know that he's ahead of that range. On the other hand, he could be a total nit and fold his entire range to any resistance, we don't know. Now assume that he has AK. Any raise is going to get him to fold in the vast majority of cases.

In contrast, calling the flop gets value out of AK when an A or K comes and will sometimes get an overcall from the BB in exchange for possibly giving away our hand.

As played, let's consider raising turn. The difference on the turn is that an AK/AQ hand has picked up four real outs, the twos, and it's somewhat unlikely that he would double barrel considering his aggression factor and the fact that we called both preflop and on the flop. Note that the A K isn't really an important consideration since that's only 1/16th of his possible AK hands. If we're against QQ+, then we really give away our hand as a set and probably won't get anymore value. If we're against AK, then again we won't get anymore value regardless of what villain puts us on. It seems fairly clear that we should just call the turn since villain has less than 10% equity in all cases except A K . The value that we lose in giving villain a free card is less than the value we gain on the river (consider that 10% of the current pot is only $4-5).

I think raising the flop is best since villain isn't very aggressive and we're less likely to get value on later streets if we just call the flop. Thoughts on my analysis?

[d0zer]

I like your analysis, I'm more curious as to how you would adjust this strategy vs a 30/2, a 20/10, and a 30/15.

Or better put: what villains would you be more inclined to raise the flop against? Stations/LAGGs who won't be able to drop their overpairs?

[BankItDrew]

Slow playing is for donkey's.

[Fnord]

It's really funny when you see guys like this go set over set and play a small/medium pot. You got to drag them into a big pot kicking and screaming.

[d0zer]

Slow playing is for donkey's.

I've been playing almost all my sets hard and fast...basically how I play 2pr, though I rarely fold sets.

But I dunno ... there are certain situations where a slowplay could be justified, no? vs a bet/fold kind of TAG/rock on a safe board like this?

[Ltrain]

I think our knowledge of the BB is relevant to a flop raise or call. On this board, I like a call to try and induce a checkraise from the BB with TPTK or a bluff checkraise if he is aggro. Villian then calls or pushes, we push/call and scoop. If the board was draw heavy, I like a raise to either get more value from the BB or force him to announce his draw by a big flop call, and Villian may think we are semi-bluffing with a flush draw.

[ultros8]

I think a lot of the time if you raise the flop, a player like this will call with their overpair and continue to call down a sizeable bet on at least one more street, whereas if you let them drive the betting they're not going to make very big bets for you (so basically I agree with your concluding sentence). I don't think we have to worry so much about folding out AK because how often is this guy really going to fire again on a blank turn?

[Deanglow]

Raise the flop. Jacks and queens will be scared of an A/K turn. AA and KK will most likely pay you off anyway. On the turn, raise big; it looks like he is trying to see a cheap showdown and is scared. AhKh is def in his range and there are still scary cards.

[Pasta]

On this dry board against this villain and w/ the BB still to act, I like the flop call, turn raise. You pick up a little value if the BB calls, a lot of value if the BB raises, and moderate value if the villain 2-barrels. Villain may be more likely to call the flop raise than the turn raise, but will shutdown after that unless he is willing to play for stacks, in which case it does not matter. If villain 2-barrels and then calls the turn raise, its worth more since its a bigger bet, and he is much more likely to feel committed on the river since he will be getting close to 3:1 odds on the river call. If villain does not 2-barrel, then he will be more likely to call our big turn bet with an overpair since it looks bluffy. While its true that jacks and queens would shutdown w/ a K or A on the turn, I think AK would wake up so this seems like a wash.

If the board had a flush draw, then I agree with Ltrain that a flop raise would be preferable. And if I knew this villain was capable of a hero call, I would raise the flop, check behind on the turn and push the river.

[BankItDrew]

Slow playing is for donkey's.

I've been playing almost all my sets hard and fast...basically how I play 2pr, though I rarely fold sets.

But I dunno ... there are certain situations where a slowplay could be justified, no? vs a bet/fold kind of TAG/rock on a safe board like this?

Yeah, you're right. I probably would have just called here too. It's uncoordinated and there might be value to gain from the BB.

[spoonitnow]

Raise the flop. Jacks and queens will be scared of an A/K turn. AA and KK will most likely pay you off anyway. On the turn, raise big; it looks like he is trying to see a cheap showdown and is scared. AhKh is def in his range and there are still scary cards.

Jacks and Queens will be scared of an A/K turn, but AK will pay me off more, and there's a significantly higher chance of AK than QQ-JJ. As played, AhKh is obviously a part of his range but it's such a small part that it's pretty irrelevant.

[BankItDrew]

^^^^
If you always assume villain has AK, you're not going to stack often.

Seat 1: BankItDrew ($258.90 in chips)
Seat 2: krawiec ($45.35 in chips)
Seat 3: VDJ-1385 ($201.50 in chips)
Seat 4: ed61san68 ($151.25 in chips)
Seat 6: AllTheWay33 ($201 in chips)
Seat 7: skiller32 ($198 in chips)
Seat 9: Howie690 ($258.55 in chips)
skiller32: posts small blind $1
Howie690: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BankItDrew [ ]
BankItDrew: calls $2
krawiec: folds
VDJ-1385: folds
ed61san68: folds
AllTheWay33: raises $8 to $10
skiller32: folds
Howie690: folds
BankItDrew: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [ ]
BankItDrew: bets $20
AllTheWay33: raises $38 to $58
BankItDrew: raises $190.90 to $248.90 and is all-in
AllTheWay33: calls $133 and is all-in

Seat 1: skydancing8 ($242.60 in chips)
Seat 2: BankItDrew ($179 in chips)
Seat 3: Civil Bullet ($107.65 in chips)
Seat 4: Dr. Fells ($186.45 in chips)
Seat 6: tml787 ($228.15 in chips)
Seat 7: blunty31 ($178 in chips)
Seat 8: 1SAGE1U ($159.70 in chips)
Seat 9: toddkrupa ($374.65 in chips)
toddkrupa: posts small blind $1
skydancing8: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BankItDrew [ ]
BankItDrew: calls $2
Civil Bullet: folds
Dr. Fells: folds
tml787: folds
blunty31: raises $8 to $10
1SAGE1U: folds
toddkrupa: calls $9
racquet000 is connected
skydancing8: folds
racquet000 has returned
BankItDrew: calls $8
*** FLOP *** [:Kd: ]
toddkrupa: checks
BankItDrew: bets $16
blunty31: calls $16
toddkrupa: folds
*** TURN *** [:Js:]
BankItDrew: bets $50
blunty31: calls $50
*** RIVER *** []
BankItDrew: bets $103 and is all-in
blunty31: calls $102 and is all-in
*** SHOW DOWN ***
BankItDrew: shows [ ] (three of a kind, Deuces)
blunty31: mucks hand
BankItDrew collected $365 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $368 | Rake $3
Board [Kd 2c 8d Js 6h]
Seat 1: skydancing8 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 2: BankItDrew showed [2s 2d] and won ($365) with three of a kind, Deuces
Seat 3: Civil Bullet folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Dr. Fells folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: tml787 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: blunty31 mucked [ ]

Sure, it may not work for everyone... but I always assume villain has a big hand when I flop a set. I think I get paid off more frequently.

[AHiltz]

How many hands is he 14/4 over? With an AF of 0.5 is he really raising AK UTG and then firing at the flop and turn?

[daven]

i like raising turn. How you planning to react after calling the turn when he shoves the A/K/Q/Heart river?

[Miffed22001]

1. i hate raising the turn versus a predictable player who should muck to the turn raise (obviously im assuming our opponent is at least competent)

2. Id like to understand our opponents tendancy more. If we raise a number of flops and fire a turn bullet will we get him to fold a large part of his range eg big pairs even if we only have tp/56 etc if so then i like a flat call first 2 streets or at worst a turn raise. if he stacks off light then its an easy flop raise turn bet river push or w/e line you like

3. if we raise the flop, check the turn and hope he block bets oop with a big pair then how much is he going to bet and/or how much can we bet on river and get called. I like this line simply because if we raise flop opp cant just insta-muck AA/KK etc and if we fire a turn barrel after a flo praise he probably folds whereas if we check behind he block bets or c/c's our pot sized river bet in which case we got decent value versus a player looking for an excuse to fold. Otherwise raise flop with JTs tp check turn and push over his river block bet and rep a set to pwn his UTG range.

While it might not be 1/2 and only 100nl where players dont really think, if we want max value i dont believe call call is the best line, but that depends upon what we know and not just that our read is '14/4/0.5' which tells me nothing about how to get his stack in the middle or cause the biggest mistake from opponent with AA/KK etc