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Pythonic, 4 times you've said "right twice". But you're not clueless about poker and you've obviously read lots of FTR.
So, you'll know about sample sizes. You will know, deep down even if you're not admitting to yourself, that a sample size of two is worth LITERALLY zero. Nothing.
This guy is a 34/12. Now, you're right in that this increases his range to include 89 and Q9, at a push. But - and this is where you're bloodymindedly refusing to see the point - it's his RANGE that matters here. You have to call, or raise, or fold, depending on how often you think you're ahead or behind. So, I am going to list, here, the hands that you beat and the hands you don't beat, going on what a 34/12 might realistically be playing. I hope you agree that the flop action and turn action give almost no clue as to villain's hand.
You beat on flop (hands that are good enough to bet - though obv any two cards are good enough to cbet - and then call your raise, assuming a normal 34/12):
AA
AK
AQ
AJ
AT
KQ
KJ
KT
QQ
QJ
JT
TT
T7
77
You beat from turn and river:
Kxs
44
K4
Hands that beat you on flop:
89
KK
Hands that beat you on river:
Q9
AQ
Now, as for the big river bet. I'm sure you understand that poker is, in part, about misleading your opponent. So, it's not a big leap to assume that a big bet of this type actually DOESN'T want to be called. This - combined with the villain's check on the turn (which again *could* mean strength, but also will usually mean weakness) - indicates that a bluff, or a big bet with a marginal hand - which is often a leak, but a common one at low levels - is part of his range as well. Even if he is bluffing only 20% of the time, that makes a massive difference to your odds when it comes to you call/raising his bet.
So, to sum up: of the hands a 34/12 is likely to have played, you are ahead of 18 (generously counting Kxs as one hand, and air as one hand) and behind 4. Weighting them all the same (which is slightly inaccurate as pairs are dealt a lot less often than unpaired hands, but the difference is small enough to ignore here), this puts you ahead OVER 80% OF THE TIME.
Let's be even more generous to you here. Let's say you have SUCH strong read on this guy - despite him being a $10nl player with imbalanced stats - that you think a big bet means a monster, say 50% of the time. Well, that means that rather than being ahead 80% of the time, you're only ahead 40% of the time.
But guess what! Even if, with your own monster hand (and second set IS a monster, believe me) you are only 40% to win - you are still egtting odds to call! You are being asked to put $5 into a $8.75 pot. Therefore, you only need to be ahead 36% of the time for this to be call.
So, even in the worst case scenario - one in which you have superhuman reads - it is -EV to fold here. THAT'S why people are telling you this hand cost you money - because although you got lucky here, if you play the hand 1000 times over, you'll lose a significant amount of money despite holding a monster.
(epilogue - one sure way to become a bad/losing poker player is to look at positive results to bad mistakes and think "because it worked out that time, I must have played it right". This is the perfect example of such thinking. You MUST lose this attitude or you will end up either going broke or, at best, being unable to progress beyond the lowest levels.)
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