Possible bluff spot

[seven-deuce]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

Hero (BB) ($9.43)
UTG ($5.79)
Button ($13.54)
SB ($5.94)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q
2 folds, SB bets $0.16, Hero calls $0.11

Flop: ($0.32) 2, J, 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.32) 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.32) K (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Total pot: $0.32 | Rake: $0.01

This is the first time this guy had raised my blind he'd being playing a tight pre-flop game thus far.

The SB opening range i put him on was: {22-AA, AJ+ KQ}

If he c-bet the flop i would have folded and been happy about it vs such a strong range. But he checks.

So i adjusted his range to: {TT-55,33,AQs+,AQo+}

So he has 42 combinations of PP's in his range, 9 combinations of AQ and 12 combinations of AK.

We can probably remove AQdd + AKdd because he would probably c-bet those hands too. So 42+8+11= 61 combo's in total.

Looking back now it seems this guy was a tight player pre-flop who played very fit or fold post flop, i'm pretty sure i'm getting a HUD tonight so i'll be able to provide stats in future and analyse shit more effectively.

So if i bet 0.15 as a bluff here i'd need him to fold 32% of his range for a bluff to be +EV in a vacuum. We need him to fold 19.5 let's round up to 20 combos for this to be +EV then. If he folds 33,55,66,77 that's 24 combos already and he would probably fold a few combos of AK AQ as well. So a beting here is +EV in a vacuum.

Going to try and calculate the EV of checking compared to betting.

Ev of checking assuming it checks down to showdown = 0.28(0.32) = 0.0896 (our equity vs his checking range*the pot)

Ev of betting then, assuming he folds 33,55,66,77 and 1/2 his combos of AQ and AK also assuming if he calls we never win the pot.

24+4+5=33 so let's assume his folding % is 54%.

EV of we bet villain folds, we win the pot: 0.54(0.32) = 0.1728

Ev of villain calling, we lose our bet: 0.46(-0.15) = -0.069

Ev of betting = 0.1728 + -0.069

Ev of betting = 0.1038

So comparing the two Ev of betting is better by 0.0142

Looks like i missed a +EV bluff.

[griffey24]

Not that a +/- 3bb spot isn't worthwhile, but all that effort could probably be used in a lot more worthwhile spots I'd imagine. This type of spot really don't come up all that often (checking all the way down, 4 flush turn/rivs).

It's fine to bet here once in a while, its fine to check here once in a while. Sometimes you have SD value.

The biggest part of this hand missing value is pre-flop imo, if you really want to find the value here.

As played I would also bet flop.

[seven-deuce]

I know it's not going to check all the way down every time, but against a really fit or fold player who checks his PP's down, which make up the bulk of this guys range, it's fairly likely. Also it is more just to get a feel for playing in these spots and practicing ev calcs.

So in future, when i'm BvB vs a multi-tabling, tight-preflop player who plays fit-fold post flop, or any villain with similar tendencies, i can bet here with a hand like AQ knowing that it's +EV.

Also the EV of betting here vs this guy would be slightly higher than my figure suggests as if he calls with a hand like TT 99, we will still win at showdown sometimes when we pair one of our live cards.

What spot's would you recommend analysing to become better? One's you think are most common and fish (like me) tend to play poorly?

[daviddem]

As played I would also bet flop.

@seven-deuce: see, I told you that a lot of players take a stab with any 2 in these spots when checked to... (referring to your other thread where you have JJ OOP on a Q high flop)

Whether to take the stab here is pretty villain dependent. You need some reads whether he would c/c or c/f a PP here. And whether he is likely to fold to barrels.

For the river, if you are going to bluff it, bluff bigger than 0.15 imo. If you had a big flush here how much would you bet hoping to get called by a smaller flush? Pretty sure it's more than 0.15. If I was villain holding a bluff catcher, 0.15 is pretty much exactly the amount I would hope to see you bet.

Also if villain is a good hand reader, he could figure that you would probably start betting a big draw like big diamond+over ott...

[seven-deuce]

@seven-deuce: see, I told you that a lot of players take a stab with any 2 in these spots when checked to... (referring to your other thread where you have JJ OOP on a Q high flop)

Whether to take the stab here is pretty villain dependent. You need some reads whether he would c/c or c/f a PP here. And whether he is likely to fold to barrels.

For the river, if you are going to bluff it, bluff bigger than 0.15 imo. If you had a big flush here how much would you bet hoping to get called by a smaller flush? Pretty sure it's more than 0.15. If I was villain holding a bluff catcher, 0.15 is pretty much exactly the amount I would hope to see you bet.

Also if villain is a good hand reader, he could figure that you would probably start betting a big draw like big diamond+over ott...

@bold not sure you can directly compare a 3-bet and a call to a bet and a call, and when you say "any 2 in these spots" i think you mean their entire range, which i don't think is going to be true all that often, most people will bet some of their range and check some.

[daviddem]

True it's not a 3-bet pot but other than that the situation is quite similar: preflop aggressor checks oop on a flop that has very similar texture to that of the other thread.

And yes I meant that they'll bet most of their range.

[griffey24]

@seven-deuce: see, I told you that a lot of players take a stab with any 2 in these spots when checked to... (referring to your other thread where you have JJ OOP on a Q high flop)

I don't know if I view AQ here as 'any 2'?

When facing a check, this is a pure value bet, with equity in the event that we're behind and he's taking a c/c line.

Once people check this flop it's unlikely they suddenly bluff turn (barring specific reads that villain does this), so there isn't much value checking AQ behind here and expecting to bluff catch turn. Might as well bet now.

[daviddem]

When facing a check, this is a pure value bet, with equity in the event that we're behind and he's taking a c/c line.

By "any 2" I meant most of your range. If you bet AQ, which part of your range do you check behind with?

Also if you're saying that this is a pure value bet, can you assign a continuing range to villain that we're ahead of, keeping in mind that he is on the tight side?

And if it is a value bet, I wouldn't say "pure". Wouldn't we like him to fold AK, AQ or his smaller PP's?

[seven-deuce]

I'd prob check {33,55-88}

Against his betting range {JJ+,44,22,AdKd,AdQd,AJs,KdQd,AJo}

AJo has 25% equity.

Since this guy has packed all his strong hands into his betting range it should leave him very exploitable to bluffs shouldn't it? So every time he checks we can bet a very weak range, to exploit how weak his checking range is.

Is the proper exploitative adjustment here to widen our calling range pre-flop to contain more speculative hands that we can stack him with, and then bet a really weak range every time he checks? And when he does c-bet just fold unless you have a nutted hand your willing to stack off with?

Then if we notice he starts check-calling with PP's etc, we can just start value betting more and bluffing less, like in this hand for example if he started check-calling 55-TT, we could start value betting anything better than a pair of 8's, which has 56% equity vs that calling range?

[daviddem]

I'd prob check {33,55-88}

So is it correct to say that you'd bet all hands better than these for value and all hands worse than these as a bluff? What's your range when you flat his open pre?

[griffey24]

OP though seriously. You do all this analysis in this spot that is somewhat negligible, when NOT 3betting preflop is probably a much more common spot, where you're missing much more value.

Why are you flatting pre?

[seven-deuce]

I don't want to isolate myself against the top of his range, if i just call i keep in hands like AJ and KQ which i'm doing well against. If i 3bet i'm going to get a shitload of folds which will be +EV especially with blockers to AK AA QQ but when he continues i'm not going to win very often.

This could be retarded thinking on my part though.

Villains open from SB range: {22+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo} = 117 combo's total.

Let's assume he folds {22-TT, AJ, KQ} to a 3-bet, that's 78 combo's.

That's 66.66% of the time.

The pot is 0.21 when he raises, do we take out the BB from our bet size i'm not sure? So if we 3-bet to 0.40 are we only betting 0.35 because our 0.05 was already in? I think that's right.

So when we 3-bet to 0.40 then, 0.35/(0.35+0.21) = 0.625

So 3-betting AQ here is +EV in a vacuum.

What's interesting is if i remove TT from his folding range, he's only folding 61.5% so this 3-bet as a pure bluff with no equity would be -EV, but we have equity vs his calling range so it's probably borderline +EV.

Also if he folds AJ and we give him a calling range of {JJ-TT,AQs,AQo} we have 45% equity if we add AJ in we have 55% equity so does this 3-bet now become for value?

The more PP's i include into his calling range the lower our equity gets, we have 49% vs a calling range of {JJ-22,AQs-AJs,AQo-AJo} also since he's not folding anywhere near enough a 3-bet pure bluff would now be -EV, but i'd expect him to play most PP's fit-fold post-flop so he'd probably fold to a lot more c-bets.

[dneureiter]

OP though seriously. You do all this analysis in this spot that is somewhat negligible, when NOT 3betting preflop is probably a much more common spot, where you're missing much more value.

Why are you flatting pre?

+1. Also I think you are grossly off on his pre range sb vs bb. He is likely much wider.

And even if he opens that range and plays fit fold just 3bet 2.5 to 3x and you will show profit when he folds every worse hand.

edit: regarding your most recent post you do not have zero % equity when he calls. Especially if he is as fit - fold as you say and lets you realize your equity by not betting.

[seven-deuce]

edit: regarding your most recent post you do not have zero % equity when he calls. Especially if he is as fit - fold as you say and lets you realize your equity by not betting.

What's interesting is if i remove TT from his folding range, he's only folding 61.5% so this 3-bet as a pure bluff with no equity would be -EV, but we have equity

GG.

[griffey24]

Villains open from SB range: {22+,AJs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo} = 117 combo's total.

I won't try to know how these stakes operate. But this is just WAAAY too tight of a range. I'm sure you can filter for steal by position and search some of your higher volume players to see what their SB steal is. Or even look at your own SB steal, what is it?

The range you created is someone essentially opening an UTG range of 10-11% (which is a range created with 5 ppl left to act), when it's folded around to them in SB with only one person left to act?

Also this is very villain dependent. The tightest of people would show up with at least 20% of a range here. Some people can be as high as 60%.

For all I know if you look up stats I could be wrong, but I would be pretty shocked.