Ugly turn oop...

[sebaru]

Still early in the tourney, table has been fairly tight. Villain has not showndown any hands, seems to be playing TAG so far. I like my hand on the flop, but the turn deflated me. Being out of position just makes it that much worse.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 27.5 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars
SB (t2,725)
BB (t4,730)
UTG (t3,070)
Hero (UTG+1) (t2,615)
MP1 (t2,950)
MP2 (t2,190)
MP3 (t2,765)
CO (t3,085)
Button (t2,530)
Hero's M: 34.87
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q, K
1 fold, Hero bets t150, 1 fold, MP2 calls t150, 1 fold, CO calls t150, 3 folds
Flop: (t525) 8, 10, K (3 players)
Hero bets t365, 1 fold, CO calls t365
Turn: (t1,255) A (2 players)
Total pot: t1,255
What's the best course of action here?

[steelsatin]

The problem started with playing Q K s out of position ! check/call cheap to control pot size is what i do !

[agnesamurphy]

Agree w/ steelsatin. Not the best hand OOP, especially that early OOP. I like the c/c since you said the table was playing tight, and might make it clear OTT whether or not they like the ace.

As played OTT, you have to continue and hope that Villain called with the flush draw, straight draw, or the 10 or something. You check at that ace you make it obvious you have the K, and give Villain a chance to bluff.

[dev]

First thought is b/f 700 but c/f is probably better.

Then again if we're c/fing scary turns (like half the deck) we should probably check flop.

[sebaru]

So you're folding KQ pre?
If we bet 700 on turn and get called, c/f river?

[Savy]

So you're folding KQ pre?
If we bet 700 on turn and get called, c/f river?

KQs UTG+1 wouldn't be a ridiculous fold would it?

As played I'd be firing another bet on the turn, then c/f or c/r the river depending on specific reads and the card.

[donkbee]

So you're folding KQ pre?
If we bet 700 on turn and get called, c/f river?

I would never fold this hand preflop, I raise MUCH wider than this in EP with suited cards.

I agree that if you bet the turn and get called, you're probably gonna be c/f the river.

[steelsatin]

look it depends on the table ! I have got no problem folding KQ early out of position (and i don't always fold KQ THERE it depends on TABLE IMAGE or can i out play my opponent ). BUT a hand starts from the first action , it's early in the tournament we are out of position with cards that are dominated by so many to come , maybe i play too tight at times and maybe i am wrong !! I would bet the flop forgot to put that in my first post( about 1/2 pot maybe a small amount less) !

[vegasjj]

I think you have to bet the turn - (small bet will do) or you will be clearly a sitting duck - kissing goodbye the chips you have put in - without giving yourself an opportunity.

[drmcboy]

I'd c/f turn and consider calling river if it goes c/c but mostly fold then too. It isn't that I think we are always/mostly beat, it is just hard to find hands that can call.

He doesn't have nothing.

If he had AK+ he would raise flop.

I don't expect he has random clubs that often, if he does our read is off and we're in danger of getting bluffed out no matter what we do. if he has something like QJcc or J9cc and didn't raise flop I doubt he bets here. Any combo draw is going to correctly call or even worse raise but either way have a better playing hand OTR.

if he has Axcc, I would expect him to check the turn.

Mostly that leaves Aces Up and hands that are drawing almost dead (KJ PPs), so I don't see much value in betting turn or river.

[Pascal]

Never fold pre, great hand plenty of potential draws. You may occassionally have some tough spots post-flop but folding pre because you're worried about tough spots post means you should just be working on your postflop game instead of being a nit.

What drmcboy said, it's a very connected board and he's very rarely, if ever, floating, you don't beat very much at all because of the nasty turn

[OngBonga]

Why the hell are people talking about folding this pre? This is a ldfo open pre. As for turn, it's awful, his Ax gutshots are beating us, his Ax flush draws are ahead, JQ got there too, just c/f and forget it ever happened.

[CrAzY]

Bet also that turn to know some information about opponent hand. If the flush draw come on the river it s an easy check.

[OngBonga]

I don't understand betting for information. Didn't we get enough information on the flop? Sure he has a *few* non-A flush draws in his range, but this is heavily outweighed imo by Ax flush draws, Ax gutshots and JQ... his range absolutely crushes us after this turn.

We should bet either for value or as a bluff. I don't see many worse hands calling, and those that do have reasonable equity vs us, and I don't see anything better folding... if we bet turn we want him to fold, because if he calls we're very rarely winning the pot... so we're basically bluffing... and since nothing better folds, bluff value is zero. This is such an easy c/f imo.

[vegasjj]

There are plenty of hands that beat us - but there are also some that leave us with opportunities.

He may be on flush draw - he could have been very well from CO with suited connectors - say 9T; TJ.. and even without flash draw could be in the hand.
Also should he be ahead (the much more likely scenario) - we still have some outs - K, J that could save us nicely against Ax

Maybe I am just more of a take chances (and sure I am no expert) but I still think I would make a bet. I have 500 or so chips in the pot, have a hard time letting it go (if I check I will be bluffed out/lose of the hand) without trying to fight for it.

[OngBonga]

There are plenty of hands that beat us - but there are also some that leave us with opportunities.

He may be on flush draw - he could have been very well from CO with suited connectors - say 9T; TJ.. and even without flash draw could be in the hand.
Also should he be ahead (the much more likely scenario) - we still have some outs - K, J that could save us nicely against Ax

Maybe I am just more of a take chances (and sure I am no expert) but I still think I would make a bet. I have 500 or so chips in the pot, have a hard time letting it go (if I check I will be bluffed out/lose of the hand) without trying to fight for it.

Sure he can call suited connectors pre. But he doesn't have a flush draw with 78s, 89s, 9Ts, QTs or JTs. The only realistic flush draw this guy has that we beat is KJcc. I guess sometimes he has J9cc and 79cc, but these have huge equity vs our hand and might even raise turn if we bet. KJcc might raise too, it's a huge draw. This turn absolutely, without doubt, crushes our hand. We're now drawing, and drawing thin at that, vs the vast majority of his range, while the minority we beat either snapfolds or has huge equity vs us. This turn is a c/f without question imo. Putting any money in the pot on the turn is akin to setting money on fire imo. Check fold.

[vegasjj]

I want to apologize upfront for this post, basically I guess I find the situation intriguing and I hope it is not regarded as a "derail" that I am trying to learn from it.
Basically - I am not giving "advice" - I am asking more questions...
Also - I am starting to learn PT4 and not sure if this is a relative correct interpretation of the question - but look what I seem to have gotten as a feedback.
Please see the pic's below that show the range I have included / excluded for our opponent (perhaps the selection should be improved) and there is the odds I got...
To me it says - bet... where am I wrong?

[OngBonga]

Ok I hope I don't come across a condescending, fact is I'm hardly an expert. However, that range you've given villain is faaaaaar too wide, like ridiculously. You seriously need to work on range assigning, taking into account reads on villain, action, and position. This guy does not have Q2s for example. We can discount AK QQ+ due to him calling, he might have JJ and worse though.

When he calls flop bet, he's going to have Ax flush draws, Ax gutshots, KT, KQ, KJ, JQ, maybe T8s 79cc J9cc. No way is he ever calling 22, not if the read that he is TAG is accurate. Only the fishiest of fish call 22-77 to a flop bet here. Sets very probably raise vs an ep open, seeing as board is ridiculously draw heavy vs our range.

Here's what I would consider a realistic calling range for villain on the flop... let's first see our equity before the turn falls, and then after...

---

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

50,490 games 0.000 secs 10,098,000 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.265% 58.85% 00.42% 29713 210.00 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 40.735% 40.32% 00.42% 20357 210.00 { AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KTs, QJs, Jc9c, Tc8c, 9c7c, 7c6c, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo }


---

We have 59% equity vs his calling range, this is clearly a +ev flop bet.

Now let's see what the ace does to our equity...

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,024 games 0.000 secs 404,800 games/sec

Board: Kd Tc 8c Ah
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 14.501% 12.85% 01.66% 260 33.50 { KsQs }
Hand 1: 85.499% 83.84% 01.66% 1697 33.50 { AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac9c, Ac8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, KTs, QJs, Jc9c, Tc8c, 9c7c, 7c6c, AQo-AJo, KTo, QJo }


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Down to 14.5%. This turn absolutely crushes our hand, betting this turn is a massive, massive leak vs even a wide TAG range.

c/f is the only option.

[OngBonga]

I included hands he can't have, such as ATcc and A8cc... I would imagine pokerstove accounts for that. I also seem to have missed KJcc, which we actually beat, so increase our equity slightly. It's 7am and I haven't been to bed yet lol, sorry.

[vegasjj]

Great to see your response - and I really appreciate it.

My excuse is: this was the very first time tried to use the calculator, and was trying to include the suited connectors (just by moving the little bar) and that in a fact included a bunch of odd hands. Sorry.
Thanks for taking the time and now I know how to use properly the calculator

I will play with it some more trying to figure out how to set a appropriate range.

[OngBonga]

Setting appropriate ranges is something you'll get better at with practise. Most important factor is villain reads. If this guy has stats of something like 54/12 then sure he can have all sorts of crap in his range, but when hero gives a read of "seems TAG" then we should assume he's not going to play junk hands to a raise, he's looking at pairs, suited aces, big unsuited aces, high suited connectors, and broadway combos. Position is also important, people play tighter out of position than they do in position. So this guy's button range is going to be much wider than his range from the blinds and early position. Also action, he's facing an early position raise so he'll expect our range to be tighter than if we're opening the button. This will mean he's less likely to play hands like ATo and KJo, though he might still play these from the blinds. But he won't be so keen to spew. He then faces a flop bet, so he's going to fold out anything that misses the flop, which is why his small pairs are not in his range come the turn. Also our image is another important factor, but in this example we don't know hero's stats, so we don't know if he's playing tight from early position or raising too much. If he's raising too much, then villain will widen his range, but not by much vs an ep raise when he's in the blinds, because he's out of position.

Like I say, I'm no expert, and I make plenty of mistakes when range assigning and calculating equity. But this example is so straight forward, it's very clear to me how much this ace screws us. It comes as no surprise to me how much our equity drops when he calls this flop and the turn is an ace.

[vegasjj]

Thanks for the post

I keep on learning.

I did figure out that I can click (add or remove) individual hands from the range - that calculator is real cool!