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Serious, for me, Cbet analysis with HH..
bear with me, ive never done this much analysis before inside a hand...
hh...street by street thoughts below hh...
$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($13.90)
Hero ($7.80)
BTN ($10)
SB ($28.45)
BB ($31.80)
Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.40, BTN calls $0.40, 2 folds
Flop: ($0.95, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.60, BTN calls $0.60
Turn: ($2.15, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
River: ($2.15, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks
read...villain is 33/30/1.5 and i havent observed much yet.
flats pre...i am assigning 22-99,A2s-AJs, K9s-KQs,Q9s-QJs,45s-JTs,75s-J9s, A9o-AJo, K9o-KQo,Q9o-QJo,JTo...22%ish. obviously, i didnt put 3betting hands in here since he called my raise.
i feel i have equity in this flop, especially with the Ad so i fire 2/3ish as cbet (i suppose it should be more), but i dont want to deny one card diamonds from coming along.
when he calls, i assume he calls with small/mid diamond flushes, one card diamonds with a pair or 8, sets (i think they wait to raise until turn from this guy), any 7-T, and maybe some piece with the 6 like 66. underpairs should fold and complete air. i figured two pair hands would protect with a raise, so i took them out of his range once he called.
turn, i lost my equity here and likely should c/c. there is just so much he could call with in retrospect.
river, i dont think i can blow anything significant out that called a cbet so i plan to c/f. i suppose i could force out whiffed straight draws that have a 4th diamond, but i dont know if that will bluff and force me to fold.
analysis: i ran stove on these ranges and his 22% preflop range gives me a 60/40 edge on the flop. i figured he only folded the worst third of his range (air/underpairs). anything left has a nice edge on me now and i shift to a 55/45 dog.
i looked at what may be "good" turn cards for me, and i couldnt find any other than diamonds and the A (but that may make aces up for a couple if his possibilites). virtually any brick is a bad card for my equity, too (but i didnt think about that on the flop).
so, after looking at this, i concluded this is NOT the board to cbet. i am oop, turn likely kills any equity i have, so i cant 2barrel anything and i am not folding enough of his range off to avoid a tough turn decision.
however, c/c'ing this flop would probably be mandatory because of my equity, and i can re-eval on the turn and fold to a 2nd barrel on a brick? would a c/r do any good? it would certainly fold a lot of marginal cbetting stuff, but i doubt it folds stronger redraws and actually begs for a push from a flopped flush/set.
is this solid thinking and range assessment, or am i flawed still?
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