$2NL QQ on the button

Hello,

can I give you my thoughts on this hand - I just want to see if I am reading boards the right way and not missing anything obvious.

Villain is VPIP 17 and PFR 3 over very small sample (38 hands)

UTG ($2.45)
Hero (Button) ($2.32)
MP ($1.96)
BB ($2.23)
CO ($1.99)
SB ($0.93)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, Q
1 fold, MP calls $0.02, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.06, 2 folds, MP calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.15) 9, 9, 10 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.11, MP raises $0.36, Hero ?

OK - so I get pocket queens on the button and raise pre-flop, get one caller and we see the flop. Villain checks, I put in about a 70% pot bet and get check raised 3x my bet.

First instinct is to call (or reraise), after all I have an overpair to the board. But if that's the case, what are the worse hands that will call me? So the villain looks pretty tight, doesn't seem to be a nutcase so what's he got that hit that board?
Pocket 10s - he's made a set
Pocket 9s - quads
A9 K9 Q9 - set
AA, KK - im behind

So I am ahead of AK A10, KJ K10, KQ and JJ and any pocket pairs 88 and less - do I think he's check-raisng me with those hands (or just a total bluff). I don't think he's going to be check raising like that if he's chasing a draw or just made TPGK.

Is it likely he's slowplaying a big hand, or is folding here a good move? Did I read the board right?

Thanks.

I reckon it's a fold, people tend not to be messing about in a spot like this, worst stuff he has here is like JJ, AT and KT imo, I don't think villain is the type to raise FD's and straight draws here.

Also bet bigger pre, I'd go like 10c.

Bigger pre flop like 8-10c. I'd probably call the flop and fold if he bombs the turn. Can't put too much 9x in this guys range maybe just 89s T9s A9s. I'd defo expect this kind of guy to slow down with any worse hand. Maybe you can just nit fold the flop, but I'm sure a 2NL a tightish fish will show up with some "value" hands you're ahead of.

Raise 3BB+1BB per limper, so 0.08. Call the flop raise, fold if he continues to bet big. I think this is pretty straight-forward.

I go 0.08 pre.

Call flop and re-eval on turn.

Bigger pre for shore, id prolly just nit fold flop, 2nl passive villains are not at all creative they raise cos they nutted. If you have reads contradictory to this go ahead and call but I think those bbs yr burning here are gonna destroy your winrate.

Originally Posted by kickass

Bigger pre for shore, id prolly just nit fold flop, 2nl passive villains are not at all creative they raise cos they nutted. If you have reads contradictory to this go ahead and call but I think those bbs yr burning here are gonna destroy your winrate.

Thanks guys for all the replies - I have to say my read was just like Kickass's - I think he was way ahead and I saw no reason to put anymore money in the pot for him. For me it was fold and move on to the next hand.

Kickass - what does "I think those bbs yr burning here" mean? I really am new to this game and have not yet worked out the acronyms. Thks.

It means you're spewing, burning money, etc. bb = big blinds.

I could go either way here. Folding the flop is ok since I don't like calling the flop with the plan of folding to another bet on the turn. We have position but this runout isn't one of those dry boards where I'd expect a bluffy C/R.

Originally Posted by TNreg

It means you're spewing, burning money, etc. bb = big blinds.

I could go either way here. Folding the flop is ok since I don't like calling the flop with the plan of folding to another bet on the turn. We have position but this runout isn't one of those dry boards where I'd expect a bluffy C/R.

There used to be a theorem that every raise on a paired board is a bluff. If you lay down a hand as strong as QQ to a simple flop raise, it's gonna be very profitable to raise you on paired boards!

Originally Posted by jackvance

There used to be a theorem that every raise on a paired board is a bluff. If you lay down a hand as strong as QQ to a simple flop raise, it's gonna be very profitable to raise you on paired boards!

I get what you're saying, but should we really be worried about getting exploited against a guy we have 38 hands on by a passive 2nl villain who's probably just playing his own two cards?

Hi Jackvance,

If folding the queens on the flop is considered too weak, then I have to play as if he's bluffing or semi-bluffing and we are actually ahead. In that case do I want to go to showdown by calling any raises\bets on the turn river and using the QQ as bluff catchers?

I don't see the point in re-raising or betting out on the later streets as he'll only fold worse hands but call with better.....?

Just to clarify, it was only my read on him being a nitty player who c\r on the flop that made me fold. If it was just a standard cbet or he did not appear to be tight I would not have folded here.

How people at such stakes play (from what I remember, not current) is that they'll do a bluff like this once. Whether he raises a flush draw, Tx, 9x, KQ, 98, or 55 who thinks you are stuck with overcards, doesn't matter, it's actually more likely people like this c/c with 9x and you beat everything else. If people only ever raise the flop with 9x+ here (nut hands), you can fold, but that means you'll fold everything except 9x here (and fd), which is almost all of your hands. A paired flop is most likely to have missed a hand, amongst all possible flops, so the easiest to assume the other person has nothing. If he continues betting big, you can fold because now his ranged gets more and more narrowed to 9x. There is absolutely no shame in playing this way, calling and folding if he continues with a sizeable bet is fine.

I certainly agree its a good board to bluff vs a nitty reg on but the trouble us at 2nl about nobody is esp not a 17/3. I think nitting it up is the best way to exploit this guy.

And yeah bbs just meant big blinds