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[5NL] 99...OOP with overpair

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  1. #1

    Default [5NL] 99...OOP with overpair

    Villain is 25/14/12 over 72 hands. Fold to cbet 50%, 3/6.

    Around 10 hands earlier I took villain's stack when we both stacked off on a flop of 8 T Q , I held A 9 , villain held 7 9

    I had seen villain call IP with a FD and had seen him raise IP with an OESD.

    PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    BTN: $5.00
    SB: $5.63
    BB: $12.57
    Hero (UTG): $10.26
    CO: $5.00

    SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 9 9

    Hero raises to $0.20, fold, BTN calls $0.20, fold, fold

    Flop: ($0.47, 2 players) 4 8 6
    Hero bets $0.45, BTN raises to $1.25, Hero ???

    Not sure what to do here? I know villain raises with draws, do I just call and re-eval on turn, get it in now when I am probably ahead or just fold (seems the worst option) and wait for a better spot?
    Last edited by Cobra_1878; 08-01-2013 at 05:31 AM.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  2. #2
    I'm not sure the flop has come out properly, just shows Td.

    How likely do you think Villain is to 3bet TT-AA?

    I think you're betting too big on the flop, around 30 would be better.

    I think shoving is silly because he has a lot in his range which beats you. I think it's a call, but you'd have to stove ranges to see how you actually fair against his range.
  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post
    I'm not sure the flop has come out properly, just shows Td.

    How likely do you think Villain is to 3bet TT-AA?

    I think you're betting too big on the flop, around 30 would be better.

    I think shoving is silly because he has a lot in his range which beats you. I think it's a call, but you'd have to stove ranges to see how you actually fair against his range.
    Yeah was in middle of editing it, sorted now.

    I think it's pretty likely given he has 12% 3bet so far, albeit over a small sample size, I am not too worried about an overpair.

    I decided to pot because I am OOP and want to protect my hand as best I can and charge him to draw as well.

    Yeah, I'm not happy about getting it in here at all, but I know that villain stacks off/plays draws agg, so just put it in there as an option.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.
  4. #4
    Bet 2/3 pot on the flop. His raise can be a number of hands like 78s or A8s but you're out of position which makes me want to fold.
  5. #5
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    I think I prolly fold. I imagine ill make too many mistakes doing anything else. We have so little chance of improving if we are behind and are prolly flipping with the rest.
    I would also c bet smaller.
  6. #6
    Fold, you'll have a hard time showing a profit vs a range of sets draws and a few bluffs OOP here. Remember draws have shitloads of equity vs you on this board and you're not going to be able to play turns well without a better idea of his range and frequencies.

    If you're worried about being exploited in this spot then just call with all the way better bluff catchers like QQ+ with a spade. In fact since he seems to like to felt meh draws on wet boards I'd probably just be 3 bet/calling the flop with a stronger range, namely stuff that has more equity vs said draws. Red 99 = easy foldage. AsJs = easy 3 bet/call though vs this guy.
  7. #7
    Also it doesn't make too much sense to be potting a flop you'll be b/f'ing a fair bit of your range on especially when the range of hands you can get value from isn't so strong. Also you want your air range to be getting a good price on a c-bet here and so don't want to be potting that. I love to be exploitable but not so much that I have different c-bet sizes for hand strengths vs a reg. I also don't think you should be c betting too much air here, but you'll have hands like overs + backdoor draws etc sometimes which should at least sometimes be part of your c bet range vs a reg since you can barrel effectively and have some bluffs in your range.
  8. #8
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    Carrott'$ explains it all!
  9. #9
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    i don't like jamming at all. his continuing range vs a jam is probably flush draws (~50% vs us), two pairs (obv favourite vs small overpair), sets and straights. so basically we hardly have enough equity to jam vs very the bottom of villain's calling range. that leaves calling or folding. honestly i think folding is the better of the two as villain has position on us and we're probably going to suffer from some turn + river reverse implied odds, while villain is able to manipulate the pot size pretty much to suit which part of his range he has, or which cards happen to come off (assuming you don't plan to lead many if any turn or river cards) because of his positional advantage

    edit: long story short: not enough equity for jamming to be optimal, villain is threatening our stack with this raise and two streets to go, our positions dictate we are going to have a bad time on later streets, and villain is going to have a relatively easy time playing most of his range in a +EV fashion on the turn and river
    Last edited by rpm; 08-01-2013 at 10:45 PM.
  10. #10
    NH rpm sir
  11. #11
    Out of interest, what sort of factors (in terms of villains tendencies) should we be considering when deciding to call in a spot like this OOP?

    And say we put villain on his actual range in this spot, and we had say 55% equity, would you still be saying that we should fold?
  12. #12
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    tbh i think this spot is more about what villain's range is, and what future cards have what effects on the playability of our ranges (which obv dictates the EV). in this case, villain's range is likely made up of value hands such as sets or two pairs which (are equity favourites vs us and) are getting some value/protecting their hand on a wet board, and then probably a decent amount of flush draw/pair+FD/straight draws which (are mostly around 40-60% versus our hand) and which will have a very easy time extracting value from us when the situation is ripe to do so, and will normally be able to take free cards/showdowns on appropriate cards/runouts. i'd consider calling this off if villain happened to be short and had shoved the flop (ie there were no future betting rounds), however, the stack sizes, positions, and nature if villain's range (as i perceive them) mean he's probably going to be making more money (or EV) from us than we are able to get from him on later streets. and it's just going to be a very tough and unprofitable spot to play against a range of this nature in general

    edit: i've done a lot of ranting in this thread, but just because i'm saying lots doesn't mean 'im right. i'm mostly just thinking the situation through to myself and typing my thoughts "out loud". so take with a grain of salt etc etc
    Last edited by rpm; 08-02-2013 at 12:05 AM.
  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by ImSavy View Post

    And say we put villain on his actual range in this spot, and we had say 55% equity, would you still be saying that we should fold?
    so to answer your question, yes. i'd want a greater pot equity advantage than 55/45 to call this flop because only assessing our current pot equity in a vacuum doesn't really address the EV of our ranges/positions/stack sizes playing out on different runouts. the only time when our actual pot equity on a given street is our SOLE consideration is when we are facing an all-in or are deciding to call/fold vs a river bet which closes the action.

    in this particular spot, i'm more inclined to emphasise the position/initiative advantages of the 4 traditional "types" of advantage (which i understand to be: card advantage (equity), skill advantage (liability of each player to make mistakes), positional advantage (self explanatory), and initiative advantage (like position, tends to give you more control over what happens in the hand - you have more options)
    Last edited by rpm; 08-02-2013 at 12:07 AM.

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