[10NL] 99...flop a set on wet board. Best line?

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 19/14/2 (3bet) over 145 hands. CB 25%, 1/4.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $10.00
UTG: $17.67
MP: $11.49
CO: $10.39
Hero (BTN): $12.43
SB: $6.47

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 9 9

UTG raises to $0.25, fold, fold, Hero calls $0.25, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.65, 2 players) 9 T J
UTG bets $0.30, Hero ???

Best line to take here? I assume we're raising because calling just seems awful given he has only bet half pot and the board is about as bad as you can get when you flop a set.

It worries me that he is tight/passive and he has raised UTG and cbet this flop. If we raise and get shoved on, do we nit fold or do we have to call?

Does anybody ever consider calling here and re-eval on turn?

[BorisTheSpider]

LOL Griffey will be adding you to his list of people to berate for even thinking about folding sets! At least yours is on the flop from hell.

Raise big (like $1.00) then if he shoves call it off. I think if he flats the raise then the turn is a spade/8/Q it's a call to try and fill up on the river if he bets, or check it behind intending to call a small bet on a brick river or bet if he checks again.

[griffey24]

yaaah I think this is a spot where I wouldn't be too concerned about whether or not we're good, but more of a question of getting value. Villain can conceivably b/f a ton of his range here since the board sucks.

If villain is the type that will b/c overpairs, b/c stuff like QJ/KJ/JJ etc.

I don't hate flatting here to be honest. We will be flatting a big part of our range, so it's sometimes nice to have something as strong as 9's here.

[Savy]

I'm happy calling here, so much stuff we want him to overvalue and keep on betting instead of just GII with stuff that beats us. The fact we have position means this hand isn't going to be too hard to play. This is probably the type of hand I play pretty poorly OOP though.

[Cobra_1878]

LOL Griffey will be adding you to his list of people to berate for even thinking about folding sets! At least yours is on the flop from hell.

Raise big (like $1.00) then if he shoves call it off. I think if he flats the raise then the turn is a spade/8/Q it's a call to try and fill up on the river if he bets, or check it behind intending to call a small bet on a brick river or bet if he checks again.

I had no intention of folding ever, it was just an option. I was asking for the best line for my hand.

yaaah I think this is a spot where I wouldn't be too concerned about whether or not we're good, but more of a question of getting value. Villain can conceivably b/f a ton of his range here since the board sucks.

If villain is the type that will b/c overpairs, b/c stuff like QJ/KJ/JJ etc.

I don't hate flatting here to be honest. We will be flatting a big part of our range, so it's sometimes nice to have something as strong as 9's here.

That's exactly what I was getting at.

There are so many turn cards that we don't like/kill the value of our hand that I wasn't sure what way to play it. If we raise and get shoved on, we probably have to call but villain's range crushes us.

I'm happy calling here, so much stuff we want him to overvalue and keep on betting instead of just GII with stuff that beats us. The fact we have position means this hand isn't going to be too hard to play. This is probably the type of hand I play pretty poorly OOP though.

OK, if we just call and a spade/8/Q peels off, what's the plan?

[Savy]

Just because a set is the nuts one one board doesn't mean it's the nuts on another board. We have a good hand capable of getting value from lots of hands but we don't have the nuts.

We don't stack off with our set of aces when the board runs out with a 4 flush. Some cards are bad for us, most aren't. If no cards were bad for us we'd win every hand. So I think you need to stop viewing it like you are and think about your range.

If the turn is an 8 or Q that sucks balls and we can probably find folds as our range contains all the more nutty stuff but people are worried about these cards too and we have position and a 3 flush isn't the end of the world. If you're shutting down every time there's a possible flush then you're doing something wrong especially when he doesn't have that many flushes in his range.

[griffey24]

If I'm flatting 999 I'm likely not folding any turn card, regardless of what it is. Calling all turns and re-eval river.

If villain has spades, he'll probably bluff a Q/8 turn, if villain has Qx or 8x he'll probably bluff spades etc. So for those reasons, plus the strength of our hand and the equity we have vs hands that do happen to out draw us on the turn, i'm never folding turn.

[Savy]

If I'm flatting 999 I'm likely not folding any turn card, regardless of what it is. Calling all turns and re-eval river.

If villain has spades, he'll probably bluff a Q/8 turn, if villain has Qx or 8x he'll probably bluff spades etc. So for those reasons, plus the strength of our hand and the equity we have vs hands that do happen to out draw us on the turn, i'm never folding turn.

I'd probably be calling a Q or 8 and folding most rivers to aggression and feel like I played the hand poorly. I'd definitely be happier calling an 8 than a Q.

[chincho]

. More often than absolutely wrong, they arise ineffectual ring out-an absolutely undeniable this boom or bust mentality