[10NL] AA facing strong line from villain

Villain is 19/9/4 over 109 hands. FTCB 33%.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $18.19
Hero (MP): $10.00
CO: $19.55
BTN: $10.00
SB: $8.22
BB: $10.42

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has A A

fold, Hero raises to $0.35, fold, fold, SB calls $0.30, fold

Flop: ($0.80, 2 players) Q 8 7
SB checks, Hero bets $0.55, SB calls $0.55

Turn: ($1.90, 2 players) 3
SB checks, Hero bets $1.35, SB raises to $3.50, Hero ???

I figure villain's range on turn is something like:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,496 games 0.000 secs 299,200 games/sec

Board: Qs 8c 7h 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.636% 38.64% 00.00% 578 0.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 61.364% 61.36% 00.00% 918 0.00 { QQ, 88-77, 33, AQs, As8s, JsTs, Ts9s, 87s, 65s, AQo, 87o }


Help with villain's range is much appreciated, is that too wide for a 19/9 even given his low FTCB%?

Fold or shove?

I think another hand you commented on you advocated 3b IP in a certain spot. Similarly here, this is definitely not just a fold or shove spot.

You are completely negating your positional advantage if you only fold or shove in any spots facing a raise and you have position. Villain seems reasonably tight, to the point where he might not even peel all 78s in SB, so he really only reps 77/88 here. I'm calling and re-evaluating river.

Originally Posted by griffey24

I think another hand you commented on you advocated 3b IP in a certain spot. Similarly here, this is definitely not just a fold or shove spot.

You are completely negating your positional advantage if you only fold or shove in any spots facing a raise and you have position. Villain seems reasonably tight, to the point where he might not even peel all 78s in SB, so he really only reps 77/88 here. I'm calling and re-evaluating river.

Villain is pot committed on turn anyway isn't he? That's why I was saying fold or shove, with $3.82 behind I feel he is shoving almost any river anyway...or am I way off here?

Nah he can still check imo.

And even if he can't check raising can fold out bluffs whereas shoving he feels like you still might fold so probably has a wider range shoving the river than calling a turn shove.

Yah didn't notice he was short'ish. Even still, call turn/call any river is fine.

If he has some spazz he might jam on any spade etc.

call turn

Why is qq in his range you really think he doesn't 3bet that in the sb?

Also are we assuming that villains is stacking off with 100% of his turn raising range? If not (and I think it's fair to assume not) you need to factor in fold equity in your equity calculations.

Originally Posted by jackvance

Why is qq in his range you really think he doesn't 3bet that in the sb?

3b sample size on villain is small so I don't see how we can definitively exclude QQ from his range because he flats pre.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Also are we assuming that villains is stacking off with 100% of his turn raising range? If not (and I think it's fair to assume not) you need to factor in fold equity in your equity calculations.

That's what I was assuming yeah, I thought because his raise sizing was ~50% of his stack he was telling me he was pot committed. I don't feel I have much fold equity here at all.

Easy fold @10nl facing the death line with an overpair - this dude isn't c/r the turn with anything we beat and his range is almost exclusively 77/88.

I think call/call or call/revaluate is fine once you hit 50nl - villains begin to be less ABC and take classic ABC value lines like c/r turn as bluffs. They are also prone to overplaying draws.

Originally Posted by The Bean Counter

Easy fold @10nl facing the death line with an overpair - this dude isn't c/r the turn with anything we beat and his range is almost exclusively 77/88.

I think call/call or call/revaluate is fine once you hit 50nl - villains begin to be less ABC and take classic ABC value lines like c/r turn as bluffs. They are also prone to overplaying draws.

Not sure what guys are doing @50nl, but i have to agree here with bean. I see a lot of villains who have stopped raising the flop with sets and waiting till the turn or river even @ 10nl. what they aren't doing though is balancing by c/r the turn w/ air.