Hand converter messed up - manually adjusted the numbers to suit the HH thanks for the spot.
Lets start off with some ranges:
We cannot really go by the HUD stats as sample sizes are practically non existent, but lets have a go.
The more that come along for the ride then the players behind are getting greater odds until we reach the BB who will lob another $0.20 with practically any two cards
Hero raising range from MP1 = 55+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KQo
MP2 calling range = 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo, T8o+,
CO calling range = 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, 32s, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o
BTN calling range = 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K7o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T8o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o, 65o
BB calling range = 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 72s+, 62s+, 52s+, 42s+, 32s, A2o+, K7o+, Q7o+, J7o+, T7o+, 96o+, 85o+, 74o+, 64o+, 53o+, 43o
Some equity calcs pre:
Hero 26%
MP2 26%
CO 17%
BTN 14%
BB 15%
No one is a fan of leading into 4 players, however I had the initiative and I may also have the best hand at this point, I didn't think check calling was that great an option and folding seemed so weak, therefore I elected to continuation bet with my top pair farty kicker and back door nut flush draw. If I get a straggler hanging on for a draw then I intended to see what the turn brings before deciding if another shell would get rid. A raise would tell me I am beat.
I think that was my first mistake, maybe check calling was the best option - see below
I agree the turn card is probably the best one I could have wanted, it didn't complete any draws, but now I need to think about trimming some of the ranges of the players.
Hero range: actually this exercise has just illustrated something very important, there is no way I am betting into this many villains without a piece of this board. My range is decimated to ATs+ AJ+ TT 77 QdJd KdQd KdJd
At higher stakes against better thinking players this could certainly be an issue.
Villain calling range I estimate to be roughly TT+,77,A2s+,JTs,T9s,87s,76s,Kxd,,Qxd,Jxd, 8xd,6xd,5xd,4d3d,ATo+,KJo+,QJo,JTo,T8o+
allowing for some random donkishness due to odds offered.
Equity my range vs villains (x3)
Hero 34%
MP2 22%
BTN 22%
BB 22%
Equity my actual cards vs villains range (x3)
Hero 29%
MP2 23%
BTN 23%
BB 23%
Before I make a decision on betting the turn, what cards do I not want to see ?
Any Diamond completes flush draws
any 3, 4, 6, 9, J complete straight draws
5,7, T give someone trips/full house
K Q unlikely gutshot draws & unlikely 2 pair eg villain Kd5d
So I really want to be seeing an non diamond 2, Ace, K or Q to have any confidence on the river if I bet the turn and don't take it down.
Therefore I think I should check/fold the turn if more than 1 villain are putting money into the pot, check/call if only 1 villain, check/fold the river unless a non diamond 2, Ace, K, Q come on the river where I should bet/fold
Thoughts ?.............
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