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 Originally Posted by relaywisp
He can have a lot more 10s than you think. It's definitely wider than JT/TT. He can have potentially up to 16 combos each of QT and T8, maybe 12 more for KT. Some QT and KT checks back turn, he also has Tx clubs that decides to barrel after picking up the gutshot. His value range is definitely significantly greater than zero. I don't know what his bluffing range is but i don't really want to analyze that farther than hes a nit that fired three on this runout.
Also i like squeezing a lot more pre if he's opening the button a decent %.
I think squeezing isn't a bad idea at all. I agree that I narrowed villain's range too much - I guess he could fire two barrels with T8 and QT, though as you said, I would expect a check back on turn sometimes as well.
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
I think the river is a definite fold. One thing to consider is that he's tight pre-flop and doesn't seem to be too aggressive in general, so he's really picking his spots. Considering he's fired three, there's no way we have the equity to call on the river. Calling two streets and folding the river might be okay? Idk.
Cool, this sounds good to me. I don't think villain is ever bluffing here and I don't think he has many (any?) value hands that we beat either.
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