[10NL] QQ vs steal, not the best of flops....

In order to improve my game rather than the break even sort of thing I have going on, I want to try and wrap my head round scenarios that I walk into fairly often and try to become a bit more adept at playing post flop.

Hopefully some players will recognise these situations and jump in with some opinions.

My stats at the table at the time were 13/13 (49 hands)
Villain was 9/9 (11 hands)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com/

UTG+1 ($10.31)
MP1 ($10)
MP2 ($10.37)
CO ($21.99)
Button ($10.45)
SB ($10.69)
Hero (BB) ($10)
UTG ($8)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q
5 folds, Button raises to $0.20, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.90, Button calls $0.70

Flop: ($1.85) 9, A, J (2 players)

Hero ?


Ranges and Equity

Making the assumption he is competent, the range I give him for min raising the button and then calling a large 3 bet out of the blinds would be

QQ-66,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AKo - he could call with low pp's rather than sc's but to avoid giving him an outlandish calling range given his nitty stats I think I have it in the ball park with one or the other.

there may be an argument for AA/KK/AKs to be included but buton vs blind battles with those hands usually see a 4 bet go in at some point.

I have 65% equity vs this range

If I bet I will fold out all the low suited connectors and low pairs, his continuing range would then be:

QQ-99,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,AKo

I then only have 44% vs his continuing range (excluding him floating with air) and I am excluding the AA/KK hands, if I include those hands my equity reduces to 38%

So do I bet or check ?

If I bet then how much ?

If I check do I check/call check/fold check/raise if he bets ?


A fairly common spot I find myself in, usually involving 99-QQ in the blinds 3 betting a steal and overcards come on the flop.

I discussed this hand at length with Spoonitnow in the chat room, and thought it would be an interesting hand to get some views on how to play it

Edit: One of the things being discussed at present was my under estimation of his pre flop calling range and subsequent continuing range, offsuit broadways should be in there.

the consensus seems to be this range is more accurate: 99+,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo

Now versus this villain continuance range my equity is at 48%, same question..... do I bet or check ?

Note: it did surprise me that giving villain a continuance range of hands all higher in rank that a 9 and on this flop with the amount of gutshots, oesd's, trips, 2 pair & higher pairs he would have that I still had 48% with my pair of Queens.

Excellent work. I'm glad you've gotten your hand-posting permissions taken care of.

If you want to join the chat, start at (http://www.ntalk.de/Nettalk/en/index.php?page=Download) and follow this short video:

Hm, I am little confused about that he bet only $0.20, and then he call your raise of $0.90. This move looks me that he has Ax. I don't think that he has AK, maybe he has something like AT. However, even that I think that he has Ax, if I was on your place I will bet on the flop to about 2/3 of the pot, because you have good cards and like you said, with your bet you will fold out all the low suited connectors and low pairs. Also there are two cards left to be dealt, and maybe one of that cards will be Q, so for my opinion you should bet on the flop to about 2/3 of the pot.

Probably a major ramble.....


If he is min raising and has reg stats then his attempt to steal will be hovering around the 50% because thats what regs are told to do at the micros, by raising I now should have trimmed his range to that in the OP which would be

22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KJo+, QJo

There is no turn card in the deck I am afraid of that helps his low suited connectors (a 6 gives his 78s an oesd) and his pairs have 2 outs to improve so I will go with the notion that by betting I get rid of all his crap...


he has 179 hands in his starting range of which 62 are combinations of low pp & sc's (34% of his range)

I c-bet say $1.20 & I will win $1.85 34% of the time

EZ game
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Now comes the pain.....

Lets say out of his remaining 66%:

He raises any ace, a set, 2 pair (those combos account for 39% of his continuing range) There is no turn card in the deck that helps me other than the 2 remaining Queens and even then they help all his draws, so I cannot call, therefore I have to fold and lose the $1.20 c-bet 39% of the time. This excludes any semi-bluffing he decides to take a stab with so the situation may be even worse.

he calls the remaining 61% of the time chasing his draws, when he does that he has equity of 28% - the pot now stands at $4.25 (his remaining range is all broadways without an ace or the JJ/TT hands)

The problem I run into is any T J Q K hitting the turn

A Ten and his equity is now 38%
A Jack and his equity is now 50%
A Queen and his equity is now 31%
A king and his equity is now 65%

an ace, nine or rags help me by dropping him to 19% equity

But if a rag does hit the turn then I should keep betting to deny him odds to hit his draws, all of a sudden we get to the river and we are playing for stacks and all I have is a pair of queens and I could have been behind all along.

So if I bet the flop I win a small pot, If he calls it doesn't look good for me and the pot is growing.....

He might not even raise hands he is in front with on the flop, therefore not warning me I am betting into a made hand.


Hence me posting the hand, there doesn't seem to be an ideal scenario with this flop if the villain decides to call my c-bet. So is c-betting worse than check/folding ? .... but if I check fold every time a shitty flop lands I will be burning more money than I am now.

That said, all villain can do is put me on a range, if we throw in a couple of suited connectors then my 3 bet range from the blind might be TT+,ATs+,98s,87s,76s,AQo+ which has 55% equity vs villains continuance range. If I take out the sc's from my 3 betting range I then have 63% in my range vs villains range, so his continuing range against my '3 bet then c-bet' range without bluffs is not doing so well.

66% of the time I have these decisions to make on the flop ..........

Flop Betting:

A. Check/Call
B. Check/Fold
C. Bet/Call
D. Bet/fold


If we get to see a turn card and it is a T J Q or K

A. Check/Call
B. Check/Fold
C. Bet/Call
D. Bet/Fold

If we see a turn card that is a brick then...

A. Check/Call
B. Check/Fold
C. Bet/Call
D. Bet/Fold

Will I even get to see a river card ?

-------------------------------------------------------
Quiz time


I think these are the optimal lines:

Flop:
D. Bet/Fold

Turn Q
C. Bet/Call

Turn rag, A or 9
A. Check/Call

Turn K J T
B. Check/Fold


Anyone agree/disagree ?

I agree with Flop, Turn Q, and Turn K J T, but I disagree with C/C turn rag A or 9, the reason being OTT the pot will be $4.25 with $7.90 behind, say he's betting and we're calling 75% pot so that's about $3, making the pot OTR $10.25 with $4.90 behind, we're kind of backed ourselves into calling 2 streets with an extremely marginal hand. When he bets turn we're extremely likely to face another bet OTR and how happy are we really calling two streets in this spot? It may be different if we were IP and knew more about our opponent, but I think C/C rag A or 9 is a bit FPS vs. a relative unknown. I'm just C/F those turns as well, atleast until we have more information about how this guy plays.

This calc is assuming he always bets the turn when we check and that he'll always stack off and we'll always win when we hit a Q which obviously isn't true but it shouldn't make a huge difference in the overall eV.

(1.85)(0.34) = 0.629
(0.66)(0.04)(12.15) = 0.32076
(0.66)(0.72)(-1.2) = -0.57024
(0.66)(0.24)(-1.2) = -0.19008

Total = +0.19

So ya obviously it's a slim spot but I think these lines minimize your risk + uncertainty vs. the unknown and that didn't even account for the times that he checks back the turn and you get a cheap showdown or a Q OTR or figure you can make a small value bet OTR.

I could be wrong, maybe someone more experience will weigh in.

Originally Posted by STILL_mkd

Hm, I am little confused about that he bet only $0.20, and then he call your raise of $0.90. This move looks me that he has Ax. I don't think that he has AK, maybe he has something like AT. However, even that I think that he has Ax, if I was on your place I will bet on the flop to about 2/3 of the pot, because you have good cards and like you said, with your bet you will fold out all the low suited connectors and low pairs. Also there are two cards left to be dealt, and maybe one of that cards will be Q, so for my opinion you should bet on the flop to about 2/3 of the pot.

This is really bad. Sorry to be so blunt, but you're making some very critical mistakes with this analysis. First of all, you're putting villain on a hand, and not a range. AT? Where does that come from? It's a guess and leaves no room for mathematical evaluation of the situation. Then you go and bet this flop anyway? Why? So he can fold his suited connectors and low pairs? Why do we want him folding these? Because they might hit turn or river? Yes, but maybe he bluffs when we check it over. We do not have "good cards" after the flop. We have reasonable showdown value, but there's very little, if any, actual value in betting, because worse hands are not calling very often. We're never getting Ax to fold to one bet, so unless we're gonna go balls out repping AK and better, I do not feel betting this flop is wise. If we're betting this flop, it's in the hope he calls Jx. But how many Jx does he have? Sample size is too small for us to have any reliable read in that regard, but it should be pretty obvious that he has more Ax than Jx in his range.

I feel that best line here would be to c/c flop and reassess turn. I'd probably c/f turn and c/c river if he checks back turn. I prefer to c/c than b/f because when we check we might encourage him to bluff. Certainly I expect him to bluff more often than he hits a two-outer on the turn after flop check-check. If we don't expect him to bluff often enough, then c/f. And I'm certainly not betting in the hope I hit my two-outer. Betting this flop requires reads that he's gonna continue with worse. We lack such reads. Therefore, we should either c/c or c/f. I think c/f is a little weak, so I c/c.

w/o any reads just c/f flop
his LP opening size can be 2bb for entire range. his flatting range here has tons of Ax. your Q will also get you broke vs KTs/8Ts and just slow things down for Ax/AJ/A9/JJ/99 if he is slight competent. if he is slight competent then when he fires after your check then you are never good and his bluffing range here is low. he has position and a free turn so why ruin it when your 3b range hits that flop hard and you are never folding?

he could also be a complete donk/ but w/ no reads just assume he is at least ok.

Originally Posted by OngBonga

This is really bad. Sorry to be so blunt, but you're making some very critical mistakes with this analysis. First of all, you're putting villain on a hand, and not a range. AT? Where does that come from? It's a guess and leaves no room for mathematical evaluation of the situation. Then you go and bet this flop anyway? Why? So he can fold his suited connectors and low pairs? Why do we want him folding these? Because they might hit turn or river? Yes, but maybe he bluffs when we check it over. We do not have "good cards" after the flop. We have reasonable showdown value, but there's very little, if any, actual value in betting, because worse hands are not calling very often. We're never getting Ax to fold to one bet, so unless we're gonna go balls out repping AK and better, I do not feel betting this flop is wise. If we're betting this flop, it's in the hope he calls Jx. But how many Jx does he have? Sample size is too small for us to have any reliable read in that regard, but it should be pretty obvious that he has more Ax than Jx in his range.

I feel that best line here would be to c/c flop and reassess turn. I'd probably c/f turn and c/c river if he checks back turn. I prefer to c/c than b/f because when we check we might encourage him to bluff. Certainly I expect him to bluff more often than he hits a two-outer on the turn after flop check-check. If we don't expect him to bluff often enough, then c/f. And I'm certainly not betting in the hope I hit my two-outer. Betting this flop requires reads that he's gonna continue with worse. We lack such reads. Therefore, we should either c/c or c/f. I think c/f is a little weak, so I c/c.

You have right. I guess that the villain has AT. Of course we don't know what he has, but I still think that we have to bet the flop. I really don't agree with your c/c on the flop, because with that move we give him a chance to leads this hand and opportunity to bluff us. What will be if he don't have Ax, if he had a low pocket pair like 77,88 or something?
I think that with bet on the flop we will find out more about his cards. Maybe he has low pocket pair and will go fold on the flop.
With your move we give him a free card and opportunity to make better hand of us.

I really don't agree with your c/c on the flop, because with that move we give him a chance to leads this hand and opportunity to bluff us. What will be if he don't have Ax, if he had a low pocket pair like 77,88 or something?

This is the point, this is why I c/c. I want him to bluff, it's the only way I'm making any money out of his range. If he's gonna bet three streets with his bluffs, then he's gonna push me off my hand. But chances are he takes a stab at flop, and then when called, he worries that we're slow playing the top of our range and checks back turn. That allows us to c/c river with some degree of comfort. This won't be a particularly profitable line, but I expect it to be slightly better than break even.

I expect betting flop to be -ev. Sure we find out where we stand in the hand, but we're paying for that info. If we bet, he's calling his Ax, which is the bulk of his range, he's gonna peel with QT but we block that so he doesn't have it often, he might call one street with Jx, but he has Ax more often, everything else we beat folds. So we're not making any money from a flop bet. We find out if we're ahead or behind, but we're not making any money.

At least by c/c'ing flop I can make a very small amount from his bluffs.

What would be if has low pocket pair, for example 77 or 88. Then with check on the flop we give him a free card and chance to make set on the turn.
For that reason I think that bet the flop will be good move, because with that bet we expect to fold out all low pairs.

You're missing the point.

There are two fundamental reasons why we bet...

Value (worse hands continue)
Bluff (better hands fold)

If you're betting to make a worse hand fold, especially a hand that is drawing to 2 outs, you're doing something fundamentally wrong.

If he has 77, then he hits a 7 on the turn 1 in 22.5 times. And even then we're not paying him off anything significant. And even then we then have more or less the same odds of hitting river to cooler him.

When he checks back his 77 on the flop, well he's missing 21.5 times for every 1 he hits. That's a lot of potential bluffing spots.

He's gonna bluff 77 more often than he binks it. Same will be true of any smaller pair.

There's no point betting this flop. Our only hope of making money in this hand now is to let him bluff the bottom of his range. We can call one street, maybe two if it's flop and river. I suspect that will show a small profit over a large sample. Betting flop, I guarantee that is -ev. There's just not a lot worse that calls, and nothing better folds.

If I have 77 on this hand, I will not bluff and make a bet, I will only check the flop. I know that nobody bet $0.90 with nothing, so for that reason why do I bet the flop with 77 if he go check. More than sure is that I will go check and see my free card.
I don't know Ong, maybe for you I am wrong, but I think that bet the flop is good option here.

Ok, you're betting. Is it value or a bluff?