Quote Originally Posted by STILL_mkd View Post
Hm, I am little confused about that he bet only $0.20, and then he call your raise of $0.90. This move looks me that he has Ax. I don't think that he has AK, maybe he has something like AT. However, even that I think that he has Ax, if I was on your place I will bet on the flop to about 2/3 of the pot, because you have good cards and like you said, with your bet you will fold out all the low suited connectors and low pairs. Also there are two cards left to be dealt, and maybe one of that cards will be Q, so for my opinion you should bet on the flop to about 2/3 of the pot.
This is really bad. Sorry to be so blunt, but you're making some very critical mistakes with this analysis. First of all, you're putting villain on a hand, and not a range. AT? Where does that come from? It's a guess and leaves no room for mathematical evaluation of the situation. Then you go and bet this flop anyway? Why? So he can fold his suited connectors and low pairs? Why do we want him folding these? Because they might hit turn or river? Yes, but maybe he bluffs when we check it over. We do not have "good cards" after the flop. We have reasonable showdown value, but there's very little, if any, actual value in betting, because worse hands are not calling very often. We're never getting Ax to fold to one bet, so unless we're gonna go balls out repping AK and better, I do not feel betting this flop is wise. If we're betting this flop, it's in the hope he calls Jx. But how many Jx does he have? Sample size is too small for us to have any reliable read in that regard, but it should be pretty obvious that he has more Ax than Jx in his range.

I feel that best line here would be to c/c flop and reassess turn. I'd probably c/f turn and c/c river if he checks back turn. I prefer to c/c than b/f because when we check we might encourage him to bluff. Certainly I expect him to bluff more often than he hits a two-outer on the turn after flop check-check. If we don't expect him to bluff often enough, then c/f. And I'm certainly not betting in the hope I hit my two-outer. Betting this flop requires reads that he's gonna continue with worse. We lack such reads. Therefore, we should either c/c or c/f. I think c/f is a little weak, so I c/c.