Probably a major ramble.....
If he is min raising and has reg stats then his attempt to steal will be hovering around the 50% because thats what regs are told to do at the micros, by raising I now should have trimmed his range to that in the OP which would be
22+, ATs+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, AJo+, KJo+, QJo
There is no turn card in the deck I am afraid of that helps his low suited connectors (a 6 gives his 78s an oesd) and his pairs have 2 outs to improve so I will go with the notion that by betting I get rid of all his crap...
he has 179 hands in his starting range of which 62 are combinations of low pp & sc's (34% of his range)
I c-bet say $1.20 & I will win $1.85 34% of the time
EZ game
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Now comes the pain.....
Lets say out of his remaining 66%:
He raises any ace, a set, 2 pair (those combos account for 39% of his continuing range) There is no turn card in the deck that helps me other than the 2 remaining Queens and even then they help all his draws, so I cannot call, therefore I have to fold and lose the $1.20 c-bet 39% of the time. This excludes any semi-bluffing he decides to take a stab with so the situation may be even worse.
he calls the remaining 61% of the time chasing his draws, when he does that he has equity of 28% - the pot now stands at $4.25 (his remaining range is all broadways without an ace or the JJ/TT hands)
The problem I run into is any T J Q K hitting the turn
A Ten and his equity is now 38%
A Jack and his equity is now 50%
A Queen and his equity is now 31%
A king and his equity is now 65%
an ace, nine or rags help me by dropping him to 19% equity
But if a rag does hit the turn then I should keep betting to deny him odds to hit his draws, all of a sudden we get to the river and we are playing for stacks and all I have is a pair of queens and I could have been behind all along.
So if I bet the flop I win a small pot, If he calls it doesn't look good for me and the pot is growing.....
He might not even raise hands he is in front with on the flop, therefore not warning me I am betting into a made hand.
Hence me posting the hand, there doesn't seem to be an ideal scenario with this flop if the villain decides to call my c-bet. So is c-betting worse than check/folding ? .... but if I check fold every time a shitty flop lands I will be burning more money than I am now.
That said, all villain can do is put me on a range, if we throw in a couple of suited connectors then my 3 bet range from the blind might be TT+,ATs+,98s,87s,76s,AQo+ which has 55% equity vs villains continuance range. If I take out the sc's from my 3 betting range I then have 63% in my range vs villains range, so his continuing range against my '3 bet then c-bet' range without bluffs is not doing so well.
66% of the time I have these decisions to make on the flop ..........
Flop Betting:
A. Check/Call
B. Check/Fold
C. Bet/Call
D. Bet/fold
If we get to see a turn card and it is a T J Q or K
A. Check/Call
B. Check/Fold
C. Bet/Call
D. Bet/Fold
If we see a turn card that is a brick then...
A. Check/Call
B. Check/Fold
C. Bet/Call
D. Bet/Fold
Will I even get to see a river card ?
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Quiz time
I think these are the optimal lines:
Flop:
D. Bet/Fold
Turn Q
C. Bet/Call
Turn rag, A or 9
A. Check/Call
Turn K J T
B. Check/Fold
Anyone agree/disagree ?
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