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 Originally Posted by OngBonga
This is really bad. Sorry to be so blunt, but you're making some very critical mistakes with this analysis. First of all, you're putting villain on a hand, and not a range. AT? Where does that come from? It's a guess and leaves no room for mathematical evaluation of the situation. Then you go and bet this flop anyway? Why? So he can fold his suited connectors and low pairs? Why do we want him folding these? Because they might hit turn or river? Yes, but maybe he bluffs when we check it over. We do not have "good cards" after the flop. We have reasonable showdown value, but there's very little, if any, actual value in betting, because worse hands are not calling very often. We're never getting Ax to fold to one bet, so unless we're gonna go balls out repping AK and better, I do not feel betting this flop is wise. If we're betting this flop, it's in the hope he calls Jx. But how many Jx does he have? Sample size is too small for us to have any reliable read in that regard, but it should be pretty obvious that he has more Ax than Jx in his range.
I feel that best line here would be to c/c flop and reassess turn. I'd probably c/f turn and c/c river if he checks back turn. I prefer to c/c than b/f because when we check we might encourage him to bluff. Certainly I expect him to bluff more often than he hits a two-outer on the turn after flop check-check. If we don't expect him to bluff often enough, then c/f. And I'm certainly not betting in the hope I hit my two-outer. Betting this flop requires reads that he's gonna continue with worse. We lack such reads. Therefore, we should either c/c or c/f. I think c/f is a little weak, so I c/c.
You have right. I guess that the villain has AT. Of course we don't know what he has, but I still think that we have to bet the flop. I really don't agree with your c/c on the flop, because with that move we give him a chance to leads this hand and opportunity to bluff us. What will be if he don't have Ax, if he had a low pocket pair like 77,88 or something?
I think that with bet on the flop we will find out more about his cards. Maybe he has low pocket pair and will go fold on the flop.
With your move we give him a free card and opportunity to make better hand of us.
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