[10NL] QTo vs LAGG...SB vs BU.

Villain is 32/28/16 (3bet) over 417 hands. AF of 4. ATS on button, 60%, FT3B 61%, CB 81%, CB turn 69%, 9/13. Villain's river AF is 13.

Had history w/ villain. He was owning me pretty badly, running ridiculously good.

Had seen villain take this exact line before. Raised his button w/ T7o, cb flop w/ OESD, bet turn, raised AI on river hitting his straight.

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (SB): $10.00
BB: $13.44
UTG: $5.00
MP: $5.20
CO: $12.25
BTN: $11.57

Hero posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has Q T

fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.25, fold

Flop: ($0.70, 2 players) Q 4 9
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.40, Hero calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.50, 2 players) 5
Hero checks, BTN bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00

River: ($3.50, 2 players) T
Hero bets $2.00, BTN raises to $9.87 and is all-in, Hero ???

you are facing 44/99/QQ/QT/Q9/KJ/J8s/Q4s/Q5s( according to your note, butt ATS and 7To hand) that crush you and would take this line.... you think he makes the move w/ KK/AA/AQ/KQ/9T?

btw i am folding river as played but i would c/c

You think he's a huge lagg, so donking this river is v bad imo. Just let him bluff.

As played, it's a horrible spot, but I don't believe in folding the top of my range to spazzy laggs. If you don't want to b/c here, then don't donk in the first place. Donks out of nowhere can induce spazzes, so you can't fold now imo, after you take this unconventional line. You're probably not good that often, but he could be spazzing or even value towning himself with 9T/overpair more than the necessary 31.4%.

yah i probably C/C because villain can still actually try to value bet worse (we don't have any straights in our range so the river pretty much only improved QT and TT) and he may try to turn some T8/JT hands into bluffs as they have little showdown value vs our donking range.

as played i really can't see this being a bluff or a worse value hand and so i think i'll make an exploitable fold. does feel gross but

Is calling here preflop standard?

VS this guy, we have lots of implied odds with hands that can make strong top pair hands because he'll cbet and barrell lots more than less aggressive villains. Is QTo too weak for this purpose?

Yaah I think vs someone stealing 60%, this is definitely too strong to fold. We only have to beat -100bb/100 from the BB to be profitable.

60% is stealing lots of Qxs that we dominate, and we also dominate a lot of his Tx.

Not the right spot for a river lead.