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This is a gross spot. I think this should be a shove or fold spot. Calling sucks pretty hard, especially since villains likely FD flop raises will be combo draws that will jam a brick turn anyhow.
I would assume, given villains sizing, that we have zero fold equity. So you can pretty much treat this as if villain shoved, and we are calling his shove.
I think the total pot is 12.34 and we're faced with a 9.08 call, so we need about 42.4% equity to shove here (assuming no fold equity).
My estimate of ranges is something like:
|
Equity |
Win |
Tie |
|
MP2 |
25.37% |
22.79% |
2.58% |
Td9d |
MP3 |
74.63% |
72.04% |
2.58% |
JJ-99, KQs, QTs, JTs, T9s, AsKs, AsQs, QdJd, QcJc, As9s, As8s, 9s8s, KQo |
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