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[5NL] AQo...TPTK facing river shove...villain's range???
Villain is 27/12/15 over 89 hands.
Only real notes on villain is that I had seen him 3bet AKs and 4bet AQo.
PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: $5.17
SB: $6.54
BB: $7.54
UTG: $8.27
Hero (CO): $5.00
SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05
Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A Q
fold, Hero raises to $0.15, BTN calls $0.15, fold, BB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.47, 3 players) 7 Q 3
BB bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, BTN calls $0.30
Turn: ($1.37, 3 players) 7
BB bets $1.00, Hero calls $1.00, fold
River: ($3.37, 2 players) 8
BB bets $6.09 and is all-in, Hero ???
Why has villain gone all-in here? When he overcalls in BB and then donks the flop I thought he may have had a FD or a weak Qx, Q8-QJ something like that.
He then puts a sizeable bet in on the turn, I don't give villain credit for a 7x hand like 90% of the time, I think on occasion he has A7 but would he lead out with middle pair on the flop? May possibly still have a FD.
I think around this time I thought he may have called in BB with KQ not wanting to bloat a pot OOP in case both players called. Either way, I was still pretty sure I was ahead of villain's range here.
He shoves the river. A brick. No draws come in, I highly doubt the 8 has helped his hand. Is this a busted FD? Does he think he is value betting a a worse Q?
Thoughts?
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