[5NL] AQo UTG in depth

BTN: $12.50 (250 bb)
SB: $5.28 (105.6 bb) {56/19, 2/3 fold to CB, 0 3b, 35 hands}
BB: $4.88 (97.6 bb)
Hero (MP): $13.62 (272.4 bb)
CO: $9.89 (197.8 bb) {83/21, 1/4 fold to CB, 2/14 3b, 47 hands}

Preflop: Hero is MP with A Q
Hero raises to $0.15, CO calls $0.15, BTN folds, SB calls $0.13, BB folds

Flop: ($0.50) 7 A 5 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.42, CO calls $0.42, SB folds

Turn: ($1.34) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80

River: ($2.94) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.60, CO raises to $7.60, Hero calls $6

So I did a bit of in depth analysis on this one and thought I'd post it to get some feedback if/when anyone has time.


PRE
Not really much to say here, especially with the two huge fish at the table. Obv should be folding to a 3b if that happens.


FLOP
So this is a pretty standard bet for value, villain(s) should be calling something like:

Board: 7hAc5c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 72.41% 70.84% 1.57% { AdQc }
CO 27.59% 26.02% 1.57% { JJ-77, 55, AQs-A2s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 86s+, 74s+, 64s, KcJc, KcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Kc6c, Jc6c, Tc6c, 9c6c, Jc5c, Tc5c, Kc4c, Jc4c, Kc3c, 4c3c, Kc2c, 3c2c, AQo-A2o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 97o, 86o+, 75o+, 64o }

Basically dominated aces, flush and straight draws, 2nd pair a lot of the time, I think he likely 3bets QQ+ AK the vast majority of the time so he doesn't have those. So a pretty standard value bet.


TURN
Obviously we’re now behind a fair bit of the time now, 7x gets there, flush draws get there. However he's unlikely to fold his Ax to another bet and he picks up one or two flush draws as well with 88-JJ, also we pick up a flush draw as well.

So his continuing range to another bet should look something like:

Board: 7hAc5c7c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 53.06% 49.05% 4.00% { AdQc }
CO 46.94% 42.94% 4.00% { 77, 55, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, TdTc, ThTc, TsTc, 9d9c, 9h9c, 9s9c, 8d8c, 8h8c, 8s8c, AQs-A2s, K7s, Q7s, J7s, T7s, 97s, 87s, 74s+, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, 9c8c, Kc6c, Jc6c, Tc6c, 9c6c, 8c6c, Kc4c, Jc4c, 6c4c, Kc3c, 4c3c, Kc2c, 3c2c, AQo-A2o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, T7o, 97o, 87o, 75o+ }

This is about as tight as his range should get I think, by that I mean there's a level of uncertainty in what he will or will not spazz call with so I like a bet here for value as his range can only get wider.


RIVER
I like another bet for value here as I think he'll crying call a lot of his weaker flushes, maybe even some of his 7x and Ax, so this should be a slam dunk value bet. I sized it as I did to get a call from these hands.

However when we get raised things get a bit iffy. We need 33% to make a profitable call here.

I think his raising range should look something like:

Board: 7hAc5c7c2c
Equity Win Tie
Hero 30.30% 30.30% 0.00% { AdQc }
CO 69.70% 69.70% 0.00% { 77, 55, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, A7s, 75s, KcQc, KcJc, KcTc, JcTc, Kc9c, Jc9c, Kc8c, Jc8c, Kc6c, Jc6c, 8c5c, 6c5c, Kc4c, Jc4c, Kc3c, Kc2c, A7o, 75o, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, Kc7d, Kc7h, Kc7s }

Again there's a level of uncertainty here. I think this should be a fold, and that's even if he raises the Jc. To make this a call he needs to raise the Tc as well and I'm honestly not sure if he even raises the Jc to begin with. Can he ever just be freaking out here?



Anyways, I'd appreciate any feedback or thoughts anyone has if they get through that massive wall of text.

Thanks