If you ship OTF, then you get value from all the hands he folds that do not beat you AND you have a lot of outs to come ahead when he calls.

Just because he ONLY calls when he beats you doesn't mean you shouldn't shove.

Assuming his range going into that street was pretty wide, which it is, because you're playing the micros and we're talking about the flop.
Players almost universally call too wide PRE, so that means he can't have a nutted range going into the flop. If he has a wide range and will only call with 2-pair+, then all those times you win the pot when he folds is a part of your equity calc when he calls.

If you have a read that the player is super nitty PRE, then you can still look at their range and see how many of those hands are 2-pr + on the flop and see.


I'm not arguing that just because a line is +EV, that it's your optimal line. There may be other +EV lines that are better than the one we studied.
I am arguing that you're not doing the EV calculation correctly if you are considering only the portion of villain's range they call with when determining the value of your shoves.