25nl: Tricky Turn - Line?

Flop: do we think leading is optimal given a third of the deck is gross? If so, sizing okay?

Turn: I figure one of these must have 6x in this spot, if not flush draws that will continue. Overpairs should fold if I continue turn, but I'm torn between betting myself to set a reasonable price to boat up and to get value from draws, or check calling. If we are betting, how are we sizing and how are we continuing against a raise? If we're check calling, how big a bet are we check calling given we're oop and going to struggle to get value if the river pairs?

Villains are meh regs i.e. generally a bit too passive/nut peddlers.


Party, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (SB): $36.81 (147.2 bb)
BB: $24.70 (98.8 bb)
UTG: $78.43 (313.7 bb)
MP: $28.86 (115.4 bb)
CO: $28.04 (112.2 bb)
BTN: $26.85 (107.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8 8
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.75, CO calls $0.75, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.65, BB folds

Flop: ($2.50) 7 5 8 (3 players)
Hero bets $1.78, MP calls $1.78, CO calls $1.78

Turn: ($7.84) 4 (3 players)
Hero ?????

I kind of like the idea of checking on the turn. It's tricky - don't want to give flush draws a free card but one of them could already have the straight. Hard to say how big a bet we're check calling. We were 2:1 for boat/quads on the flop but now our chances are slimmer.

I would expect a straight to call a reasonable bet on a paired river. I would happily c/c at 2:1 here at turn, ie pot size. The bigger villain makes it on turn, the bigger I make it on river when it pairs. If villain then folds river, well calling turn would probably be a mistake, but really, who's folding 6x on bad rivers when boats are limited to mostly pp combos, and when busted flush draws can stab river? I'd only expect value to be thin on river for a boat vs a straight if the board pairs to a flush, which is a one outer.

I should add I'm not autofolding river blanks. We already have huge showdown value here, even if we're merely bluff catching. It's not out of the question for villain to turn the likes of 55 or AA into a bluff.

Given the flop went 3-way, I think I would definitely c/c turn. If it was HU I might be more inclined to bet.

River blank I'm re-evaling and would have a hard time folding.