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 Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider
Not really, and I've been thinking about it for quite a while! I am sure there is a fault, I just can't see what it is.
Let's give the HJ [KJs+,KhTh,Kh9h,QJs,QhTh,JhTh,KJo+,QJo] then he has 22% vs my hand. If I flat the SB's shove, he can correctly call with quite a wide range of hands that have a decent amount of equity against me, if he won't call with a bare gutter he's got more like 32%, so even when I jam he's not far from being able to call correctly.
Perhaps what you're saying is that if I flat I really under-rep my hand and can look more like a draw (even though preflop doesn't really fit with this) and the CO can then jam worse believing my call to be dead money? As Griffey said, it's probably quite a fine line, but I think if I flat I have just enough left that MP could conceivably feel like he still has some fold equity if he jams.
I really don't think you can call and then call a jam after. The only worse that will be shipped is going to be a combo draw, pair+FD or gutter+FD. Plus sets and maybe AK if he has that.
My estimates are that the pot is around 56.60 and we have about 17.60 to call, so we need to be good 23.7%.
Versus just MP's range:
AcKd 30.90%
TT,AA,AK,KhJh,9hTh,ThJh,QhJh,22 69.10%
BUT we're not against JUST MP, we're against SB's shove too. Even though he's not full stack, it definitely screws up our equity somewhat.
AcKd 14.07%
TT,AA,AK,KhJh,9hTh,ThJh,22 50.05%
22,TT,AQ,KhJh,9hTh,ThJh,QhJh,ATs 35.88%
It's close, assuming our equity is somewhere between these two given he's short, but you probably don't have odds to call/call shove imo.
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