300bb deep, OOP, bloated pot - flop goes crazy

Originally Posted by abelardx

Cliffs:

SB's check/jam range:
AA,TT,22,ATs+,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,KhTh,QhTh,JhTh,AT o+

MP's flat flop range:
AA,TT,22,ATs+,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,KhTh,QhTh,JhTh,9h 8h,8h7h,7h6h,6h5h,5h4h,4h3h,3h2h,AJo+, 45 combos

MP's call a flop shove range:
AA,TT,22,AKs,ATs,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AKo, 19 combos

Our fold equity against MP if we shove: 26/45 = 58%

Our equity against SB alone: 50%

Our equity against MP alone: 29%

Our equity against both together: 14%

Pot size after SB shoves: $25.25 and $6.85 to us to call

Three-way main pot size if we shove and MP calls: $38.95 incl our bet of $6.85

Side pot size if we shove and MP calls: $35.30 incl our bet of $17.65

Just to give us some idea of where we're at in this hand, the EV of a flop shove is:

EV(we shove and MP folds) = .5 * 25.25 - .5 * 6.85 = $9.20

Main Pot EV(we shove and MP calls) = .14 * 32.10 - .86 * 6.85 = -$1.35

Side Pot EV(we shove and MP calls) = .29 * 17.65 - .71 * 17.65 = -$7.41

Total EV of shove (with these approximate ranges):

.58 * 9.20 - .42 * (1.35 + 7.41) = 5.34 - 3.68 = $1.66

Well not that much after all, and folding is certainly reasonable given the huge variance. But it does look to be +EV and if you're rolled for it and want to play a potentially epic hand, I say go for it.

no just no.

you are gaining almost 20 big blinds on this single play...... throwing that away is a disaster. your bb/100 isn't 50.

if you can't handle the variance you are playing too high.

Also mp folds half the time under your assumptions, and we are flipping vs small blind. It's not like we are having to get it in and lose 80% of the time. This is not high variance. This is just a big pot. This is also a cash game.

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

no just no.

you are gaining almost 20 big blinds on this single play...... throwing that away is a disaster. your bb/100 isn't 50.

if you can't handle the variance you are playing too high.

Also mp folds half the time under your assumptions, and we are flipping vs small blind. It's not like we are having to get it in and lose 80% of the time. This is not high variance. This is just a big pot. This is also a cash game.

This is a good point. Thanks M2M.

Originally Posted by abelardx

This is a good point. Thanks M2M.