Here's my reworking of it:
SBs check-jamming range:
AA,TT,22,AKs,ATs,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,QhJh,QhTh,JhTh ,AKo - Our equity 32%
MPs flat the flop range:
AKs,AcQc,AdQd,AsQs,AcTc,AdTd,AsTs,Ac2c,Ad2d,As2s,
KhQh,KhJh,KhTh,QhJh,QhTh,JhTh,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,7h6h, AQo+
I've removed some of the smaller SCs I don't think he can have pre, and I have assumed that he won't flat a set on this board, but to allow for the possibility that he might sometimes flat a set or similar, I left the two pair in his flatting range. His flatting range here is 39 combos.
MPs flop reshove calling range:
AKs,ATs,A2s,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,AKo - Our equity 30%. 20 combos.
In a 3-way pot here, we have 13% equity.
MP folds 49% to a jam.
EV(We shove, MP folds) = (0.32 * $25.25) - (0.68 * $6.85) = $8.08 - $4.66 = $3.42
Main pot EV (We shove, MP calls) = (0.13 * 32.10) - (0.87 * 6.85) = $4.17 - $5.96 = -$1.79
Side Pot EV (We shove, MP calls) = (0.30 * 17.65) - (0.70 * 17.65) = $5.30 - $12.36 = -$7.06
Total EV = (0.49 * $3.42) + (0.51 * -$8.85) = $1.68 - $4.51 = -$2.83
So I don't think it's +EV. My ranges might not be quite right, but bear in mind I actually discounted MP from having sets, if he can flat a set here the situation is even worse than I have estimated because we have less equity in the side pot, and also less fold equity when we shove.
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