3rd nut flush faces river donk that makes little sense

Villain looks nitty (11/7) but only 40 hands yet.

He tanked before calling the turn.

Vs. a fish, I'd expect some ridiculous 5sXx type hand, but if this guy really is nitty nothing really makes sense, other than maybe KsQx, or a very unlikely 78ss. I guess a slowplayed T9s or 99 could think I might check back a non-nut flush but call a donk. I don't really expect him to have floated the flop with AsKx or AsQx and I don't see how he can ever have As9x or AsTx pre. He could rarely be slowplaying KsKx or AsAx pre but I can't see how he ever flats this flop with them.

Thoughts?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $33.71 (134.8 bb)
SB: $10.62 (42.5 bb)
BB: $30.94 (123.8 bb)
UTG: $28.19 (112.8 bb)
MP: $31.63 (126.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $82.27 (329.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q J
UTG raises to $0.75, MP calls $0.75, Hero raises to $2.50, 3 folds, UTG calls $1.75, MP folds

Flop: ($6.10) T 9 T (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $4, UTG calls $4

Turn: ($14.10) 2 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5.50, UTG calls $5.50

River: ($25.10) 6 (2 players)
UTG bets $16.19 and is all-in

can't fold fast enough

Originally Posted by bikes

can't fold fast enough

LOL, yeah, I did, but then wondered if it was bad afterwards when I properly thought through how he can get to the river with better and not much makes sense, but still - just because he doesn't often have 99, doesn't mean he hasn't got it when he does this.

don't rly like pre

Originally Posted by d0zer

don't rly like pre

Well we don't have the best blockers, but it flops well quite often if we get called and we have position. I always tend to think of the extra money in the pot as offsetting the higher probability of getting called when squeezing like this, and if UTG folds and HJ flats then I think he's really capped and we often get in a postflop situation where we can barrel him off a hand like TT/JJ. If UTG calls and HJ folds (or of course also comes along) I think we just have to give up unless we flop massive which we did here.

I'd be interested to hear your reasons for not liking it.

Whattt.. SC in position and you're squeezing an UTG opener? A nitty utg opener (over a small sample), which makes it even worse.

Just call pre all day!

Also dislike your turn sizing. You squeeze a bad hand to squeeze with and flop gin, and turn even more gin and now you're betting weak ass? You won't get a runout like this very often with QJss in this situation, you gotta fill it up now while you do. As played, with your turn sizing he can def have AsQ/AsK type stuff. So tough to say what to do now, though I likely call in the end.