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 Originally Posted by Openside
I think we get it in here? Against his PF range we have improved to 53% and if we take out QQ+ we are a 67% favorite.
You need to estimate your opponent's range to calling all-in when you do the equity calc.
It's unwise to assume that they'll call your all-in with their entire pre-flop range (unless you have a read otherwise).
You gave this as pre-flop range: { TT+, AQo+, AQs+ } (54 combos)
Since you open shove, you allow your opponent to play perfectly against you, folding out any hands that missed, and calling with hands that either have you crushed or have a strong draw.
I.e.
If Villain will call a shove with their entire range (including all combos of QQ+ pre), your equity is ~46%
EV = (46%)($9.36) - (54%)($2.97) = $2.71
If Villain will call a shove only with a set, overpair or NFD, (including all combos of QQ+ pre), your equity is ~13%
Opponent calls with 24 combos, folds 30 combos. 24/54 = 44% ; 30/54 = 56%
EV = (44%)((13%)($9.36) - (87%)($2.97)) + (56%)($3.42) = $1.31
If Villain will call a shove only with a set, overpair or NFD, (including 1/2 of the combos of QQ+ pre), your equity is ~16%
Opponent calls with 15 combos, folds 30 combos. 15/45 = 33% ; 30/45 = 67%
EV = (33%)((13%)($9.36) - (87%)($2.97)) + (67%)($3.42) = $1.84
***
So, unless I'm so rusty that I've completely narfed this up, you made a +EV shove.
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