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 Originally Posted by ajspiano
I don't like betting rivers, the only thing we are trying to do is get value out of Qx hands, maybe some mid pps. If I have Qx (as the villain) heros large river bet is a weird line that I would typically fold to as it seems to be something that usually shows up as a nut or near nut hand. So hero is basically only getting action from a J.
If we bet small we are more likely to see some calls from Qx, but we are also going to be raised by Jx always, and the rest of villains range sometimes. I don't think hero wants to call that raise ever unless you have a really specific read. Qx may also just fold anyway. I mean why have you awaken now at the river? what hands call this flop and turn that don't beat Qx. Villains should expect to split (at best) or lose if calling that river bet.
Checking the river therefore seems like the only logical action for me, and my plan would be to c/c though I would probably tank/fold to larger bets or shoves most of the time. Reasoning being that your line here is pretty spewy, especially turn, if you don't get to showdown. If villain bets river small, you're going to be +ev if you win just ~20% of the time. c/r river is always spew.
I disagree with the majority of this. First of all, at 5nl, noone is folding Qx at river, so the idea that a river bet only gets action from Jx is heavily flawed.
And if we're checking river, then it's to c/r vs his range of Qx Jx. Obviously Qx is way more likely, and I'll say it again, it is not folding because it's the nuts at these stakes in the eyes of most players. Villain will assume we have Qx too and snap call for the chop, because lol it's micro stakes.
Folding river to a large bet is awful.
Villain has very little in his range that beats us, while he has plenty we beat. We should be looking to get all the money in by river.
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