Assigning a 4bet shoving range to a complete unknown

Villain is a complete unknown. When he shoves, I need 43% equity to call.

I have 43% vs. {QQ+, AKs, AKo, KJs, KTs, QTs}

Does an unknown who's sitting slightly short, who then 4bet shoves rather than makes it a more normal size, have enough random spazz - ie. the 12 combos I've given him here, to make this a call?

If he doesn't have any random spazz and is shoving a purely merged range, {TT+,AKs,AKo} gives me the required 43%.

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $24.26 (242.6 bb)
SB: $22.29 (222.9 bb)
BB: $9.85 (98.5 bb)
UTG: $10.20 (102 bb)
MP: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
CO: $12.11 (121.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, CO calls $0.30, Hero raises to $1, SB folds, BB raises to $9.85 and is all-in

I would probably call here but fold at most higher stakes (based on background probability, not the amount of money at stake.)

I'm with Lukie on this. I feel like a competent Villain not on tilt or anything has QQ+, AK here, and against that range we are completely crushed. Thing is, some percent of the time an unknown will be playing bad, tilting, or just be bad. Kinda hard to quantify that, but I just think folding gives too much credit to the 10nl player pool as a whole.

So basically 1/2 live i'd snap call this, 1/2 online i'd snap fold, and 10nl I suppose im calling.

Also am I wrong in thinking hero's 3bet sizing is too small here?

and WOOOOO first post whats up everybody

Originally Posted by Lukie

I would probably call here but fold at most higher stakes (based on background probability, not the amount of money at stake.)

I don't understand this, it's probably a worse call at 10nl than it is at 100nl. You're literally never good here.

I also don't really see the point of 3betting JJ against a MP open.

Originally Posted by ImSavy

I don't understand this, it's probably a worse call at 10nl than it is at 100nl. You're literally never good here.

I disagree. Surely you must snap stuff like this off when you happen to have AA/KK and sometimes see stuff like QJo, J4s, KJs, 99. There's a high spaz factor at 10NL, and lots of easily tilted fish who will rage-spew. We have to give him some combos of spazz here when we see him sitting short and 4-bet shoving, I'm just not sure how many combos are appropriate.

I also don't really see the point of 3betting JJ against a MP open.

Don't quote me because I haven't checked the HH, but I do seem to remember the opener calls a lot of 3bets. Normally I'd be flatting JJ here.

Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider

I disagree. Surely you must snap stuff like this off when you happen to have AA/KK and sometimes see stuff like QJo, J4s, KJs, 99. There's a high spaz factor at 10NL, and lots of easily tilted fish who will rage-spew. We have to give him some combos of spazz here when we see him sitting short and 4-bet shoving, I'm just not sure how many combos are appropriate.

Very very few. If he is spazzing we can adjust but as far as you know he's just an unknown player.

hero folds, no hero fold. you need 43% vs BB to brake even , not to be +EV. and add into ecuation times MP calls. you need a lot more equity to make this a worthy +EV call in the long run.
ctrl+fold, take notes if you see a SD.

Originally Posted by Razvan729

times MP calls.

Yeah, sorry, I think I cut the end off the HH when posting - I'm on the BTN and it folded to me, so there's no-one left to act.

the point of 3betting JJ on the BU is surely because people will call with a range that we get value from? especially vs a player who doesn't auto top-up and, thus, is unlikely to be a regular. granted, what type of player the CO is will influence this decision and that info was absent in OP, but i don't think it's bad at all to 3b JJ for value BUvHJ? are the games that tight now?

as far as i remember, 10nl majority will flat OOP HJ/late MP v BTN/SB/BB any PP, AJs,AQ, some procent of suited broadways and SC's so yeah, i encourage 3betting JJ vs those positioins although i am not sureis the best way to play JJ at 10nl, but i was making profit w/ JJ in my 3bet range vs MP/LP