But what's his range?

Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com

SB ($6.15)
BB ($2.40)
UTG ($1.97)
MP ($4.06)
CO ($7.98)
Hero (Button) ($6.28)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
2 folds, CO raises $0.15, Hero calls $0.15, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.37) A, 2, 9 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.37) 2 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.25, CO calls $0.25

River: ($0.87) Q (2 players)
CO bets $0.30, Hero raises $2.20, CO raises $5.82, Hero??


What do you think villain's river raising range is here?

Layout vpip/pfr/steal%/Fsteal%/3bet/cbet/fold to cbet

Villain's stats - 21/20/33/67/15.5/38/100

Nothing worth mentioning other than his stats. Had barely even noticed he was at the table.

I play it exactly like you played it, and then I get it in on the river.

No clue what's in his range. A2? QQ?

Not betting the flop is a massive mistake

Originally Posted by Micro2Macro

Not betting the flop is a massive mistake

For me, the telling piece of information that influences my play would be Villain's low c-bet percentage. His checking range is going to consist of a lot of hands that he'll c/c once along with a lot of hands that c/f. I figure that the value I'll get from letting him catch up enough to call on the turn will overtake the value of the spots where the turn scares him out of a c/c he would have made on the flop, and I think it's easier to get him to call two bets (turn and river) when we check the flop.

Yeah I checked the flop because I was confident he didn't have an ace and I thought I'd get more value more often from his PP's by betting the turn and river as opposed to the flop and turn. Anyway, the fuckin' bastard had QQ. I'd pretty much ruled out AA 22 (never thought of A2 in game) but I woulda ruled that out also because he never raised the turn.

I snap called the river thinking I was getting a big fat donation only to receive the bad news.

Honestly can't think of anything you beat on the river that leads and re-raises. Nobody takes this line with a flush anymore, certainly not with reggish stats.

As played, I agree with Bean Counter.

Preflop: I think it's totally fine to flat here, but my standard is to 3b for value. Is this bade?

His steal number's low, but I assumed this is over a small sample.

Well his vpip/pfr/ are solid, so I wouldn't presume he was bluffing. Chances are he maybe had two pair from the off, such as A2 or three of a kind, and if this was the case I think he played the pot wrong, especially with not betting till the river. Judging from his vpip/pfr/ he's a strong player anyway, so I don't think he'd see the turn unless he had a decent flop, and he probably just made out he had a flush on the river to put you off. It's a tricky situation but would always be a fold for me against someone who plays so tight and aggressive.

Villain's stats - 21/20/33/67/15.5/38/100

Originally Posted by GreatLeslie

Well his vpip/pfr/ are solid, so I wouldn't presume he was bluffing......would always be a fold for me against someone who plays so tight and aggressive.

Disregarding the hand, I am not sure i follow the logic in your assumptions based upon his vpip/pfr. I would be looking more at his post flop AF for indications of his proclivity to bluff. A 21/20 is not in my "tight and aggressive" character range.

As played we have taken a weaker line. I would rather bet flop, turn and river and snap any raise. I am never folding here, a better player probably could consider it.

I'm with M2M, bet the flop. Of all boards, when villain checks Axx (a board he'd likely bet with air), means he's almost certainly going to at least c/c.

As played it's very weird. I doubt he would c/c turn with a FD, unless it was like 9xhh.

River line is now consistent with AAA/QQQ, more than anything else I can think of. Either way, not folding given how narrow he reps and how wide his possible range is for getting to the river. (wide as in - his entire PFR range gets to turn and a subset of this (turn c/c) now gets to the river).

I'm surprised I said to fold ITT. I don't like villain's line or sizing, and I do think QQ is far and away his most likely hand, and 22/AA make sense to, but putting someone on a 7 combo range at these stakes is putting far too much faith in villain's playing sensibly. He probably shows up with A2/NFDs often enough to call.

Now, don't let that sentiment get stuck in your head and make it an excuse to station off big hands in the future, but if you have the third set COvBU, then sure, yeah, don't fold.