Doing something +EV in a vacuum isn't horrible, but it's only not horrible when we assume that we know villains range. If we are getting villains range wrong (and this happens as we can't read minds) then we can be making a huge mistake.
The point Carroters makes about some spots don't come up very often so we want to try and maximise our EV in this spot is a pretty strange one. We are in a spot that doesn't happen very often at all so we can logically deduce that we don't know how villain plays in this spot, we can make lots of assumptions about how we think he is going to play but realistically we don't know how he plays exactly so can be making huge mistakes. It's not really any different to assuming that just because your bluff worked this time and villain folded it was +EV. It's essentially Martingale.
So what Carroters is doing is essentially trying to come up with a strategy that wins and saying GTO is bad because it doesn't win the most. However what he doesn't seem to realise is that a strategy like only ever value bet calling stations who are like 70/15 is going to be +EV but it isn't going to be the most +EV, but because he has absolutely no idea what an optimal strategy is in a situation he doesn't actually know what villain is doing that is exploitable and is instead assuming that he has near perfect hand reading skills (which no one does). Whereas GTO would theoretically tell us exactly what villain is doing wrong with his range, so we need general tendencies not perfect hand reading skills, and then we can see how we can maximally exploit him.
It's essentially being happy taking a +EV line rather than trying to find the most +EV line which is what poker is all about.
Imagine if you could be +EV (inc 0) against someone who knew your strategy perfectly and then when you know that strategy and you realise no one is going to be playing anywhere near as good as this perfect player they are basically beating themselves everytime they don't play perfectly and we know how to adjust to non perfect strategies, rather than having rough hand wavy ideas about how to adjust.
Also means we don't have to fuck about with stupid things like trying to Level opponents because we know how we should be playing.
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Originally Posted by ImSavy
