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Calculating the EV of shoving

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  1. #33
    Is this one right?

    PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
    Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

    MP: $8.41 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
    Hero (CO): $10.24
    BTN: $9.64 (VPIP: 26.32, PFR: 5.26, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
    SB: $19.49 (VPIP: 20.31, PFR: 14.06, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 64)
    BB: $10.00 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 10.87, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 95)
    UTG: $10.00 (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 25.00, Hands: 14)

    SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

    Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has 7 A

    UTG calls $0.10, fold, Hero raises to $0.40, fold, SB calls $0.35, fold, UTG calls $0.30

    Flop: ($1.30, 3 players) 3 7 T
    SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.95, fold, UTG raises to $2.50, Hero ???



    Villain c/r range - TT+,77,33,ATs,KhQh,Jh9h,

    Jh8h,T7s,98s,8h6h,6h5h,5h4h,ATo,98o...= 28 of PP's,

    3 of ATs, 1 of KQhh, 1 of J9hh, 1 of J8hh, 2 of T7s,

    4 of 98s, 1 of 86hh, 1 of 65hh, 1 of 54hh, 6 of ATo,

    12 of 98o = 61 combos.

    Call 3bet shove with TT+,77,33,Jh9h,Jh8h,9h8h = 31 combos.

    Equity = 47%

    $4.75

    $7.10

    EV Calc - (F*P) + (1-F)*[E*P+S) - (1-E)*(S+B)]

    (F*P) = 0.49*4.75 = 2.33

    E*(P+S) = 0.47*11.85 = 5.57

    (1-E)*(S+B) = 0.53*8.65 = 4.58

    5.57 - 4.58 = 0.99

    (1-F) = 0.51

    0.51*0.99 = 0.50

    0.49 + 0.50 = 0.99
    Last edited by Cobra_1878; 09-28-2013 at 05:14 PM.
    Currently grinding live cash games. Life is good.

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