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Can I ever fold here?

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  1. #1

    Default Can I ever fold here?

    Villain is an unknown.

    After preflop, then him going passive and me potting the turn, this is a pretty scary river - what I mean is, anything he called a potsized turn bet with, he's not really jamming this river for value with worse than my hand.

    It could just be a desparation bluff, but I'm not sure he really tries that with only a third of a potsized bet behind.

    His hand seems really face up, and I'm fairly sure I'm beat.

    I can't fold though, can I?

    More interestingly, can I fold if we're deep enough that he has say $12-$13 behind on the river?

    Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    BTN: $3.45 (34.5 bb)
    SB: $7.16 (71.6 bb)
    BB: $11.69 (116.9 bb)
    Hero (UTG): $29.49 (294.9 bb)
    MP: $13.33 (133.3 bb)
    CO: $26.79 (267.9 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with 6 6
    Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, SB calls $0.25, BB raises to $0.70, Hero calls $0.40, SB calls $0.40

    Flop: ($2.10) Q 6 T (3 players)
    SB checks, BB bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds

    Turn: ($5.10) 9 (2 players)
    BB checks, Hero bets $4.90, BB calls $4.90

    River: ($14.90) A (2 players)
    BB bets $4.59
  2. #2
    I would call here and call the psb. I think two pairs are at least as likely as straights and flushes. In fact I might discount flushes some because the Ah is on the board. This could easily be AK.
  3. #3
    I'm going to make my same statement as the other thread: It's not worth thinking about making huge hero folds, especially in a spot like this where you're getting 4:1 essentially.
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  4. #4
    Yeah I wouldn't be concerned about this river spot tbh. If he has you beat it's a cooler. I don't believe this is one of the rare situations where we should fold a set.

    I would definitely be raising this flop. It's a perfect flop for us. We have a set and this flop smashes into his range too. I don't want his AK to fold so I'd minraise.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    Call and take a note - there's going to be sufficient 2pair and spaz to make this a call given pot odds. Gross spot if he was deeper and pot jammed the river and I'd expect the spot to be a lot more marginal if you worked out the combos.

    Villain's squeeze sizing suggests he's a bad player and I'd definitely be raising and getting it in on this flop before any scare cards can come.
  6. #6
    Calling. Flushes aren't betting this small most of the time. Looks like a blocking bet to get to a cheap showdown with some top-pair/two-pair type hands.
  7. #7
    I fold sets to big bets on 4-flush boards but that's it. I can't recall if I've ever folded a set on a 4-straight board. That would probably depend on the player.

    The point though is that you're going to be beat sometimes but never enough to make it a fold. Even if you're only good 50% of the time that is super +ev of course. What messes with your head is the 50% of the time you lose and it's human nature to feel emotionally that we made the wrong decision even when we didn't.

    I think of these situations as poker taxes. You make a lot then you have to give some back just like real life. For example a flopped set will probably win around 80% of the time. So you definitely want to get all-in with the set even though it feels stupid those times you lose. But if you cut out those times that would mean you were misplaying the hands you were good too.
  8. #8
    I know you know all that and are just asking a rhetorical question. I just wanted to say all that for anyone else reading the thread.

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