CRAI turn with nut blocker

Like it? Hate it? Prefer just betting the turn big enough to price ourselves in to call?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $21.74 (217.4 bb)
Hero (SB): $31.80 (318 bb)
BB: $11.99 (119.9 bb)
UTG: $6.21 (62.1 bb)
MP: $12.42 (124.2 bb)
CO: $10.35 (103.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A Q
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1.20, BB folds, CO calls $0.90

Flop: ($2.50) 2 8 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CO calls $1.50

Turn: ($5.50) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $3.50, Hero raises to $29.10 and is all-in

What hands would you do this with for value?

I think you're repping JJ here, I think playing a flush this way would just be a bit strange.

Calculate what you perceive your equity to be vs his calling range. Once you know that, you can figure out how often he needs to b/f for this play to be profitable.

I don't think I have any c/bomb range on this turn, so I'd rather just bet, with the intention of either b/c or b/jam if he raises turn.

Id fold alot vs this

I like betting the turn because it's a scare card and you picked up equity. After he bets $3.50 there's less fold equity and if he has a made hand you're at best a 2:1 dog. I like bet/folding small ott, expecting to rarely get raised, folding out overs and some small pps, and setting a good price for the draw. As played I'd prefer calling, you're getting about the right price to draw to 10 outs, not to mention the nuts, and there are some implied odds. I don't think the shove folds a J which would make it bad.

The flush is not the nuts

Originally Posted by griffey24

Calculate what you perceive your equity to be vs his calling range. Once you know that, you can figure out how often he needs to b/f for this play to be profitable.

I don't think I have any c/bomb range on this turn, so I'd rather just bet, with the intention of either b/c or b/jam if he raises turn.

Yeah I'm crushed. Realistically I doubt I have more than 20% vs. his calling range so:

EV(he calls) = $4.16 pot equity

So the EV of shoving is about -$3.50 if he always calls, the pot is $9 when I shove so I need him to fold about 40% of the time. It seems a bit marginal, but I think he can b/f quite a lot here - sometimes he just has random floats (which we're probably a ahead of a lot anyway), sometimes he's betting something mid-strength for value and protection because he doesn't want the turn checking through.

I did expect people to perhaps say it looked a bit odd. I agree it's unorthodox. I don't mind it as a way to play the nut flush here though - if we just bet the turn and he calls with something mid-strength we're unlikely to take the rest of his money on the river, but with the stack sizes as they are, if he bets something mid-strength for value and protection on the turn then we jam over the top, it's tough for him to fold getting 4:1 if he has a decent diamond in his hand. So yeah, although it looks a bit odd, I actually think I could play the nut flush like this sometimes.

Originally Posted by abelardx

I like betting the turn because it's a scare card and you picked up equity.

Yeah I think that's undoubtedly much more standard and probably better.

After he bets $3.50 there's less fold equity and if he has a made hand you're at best a 2:1 dog.

Yeah I agree "if" he has a made hand. I think doing what I did ends up bluffing with the best hand quite a bit, but it also does get value from the made hands that he might just fold to a turn barrel, but that he'll bet when checked to. So I think a c/r extracts another bet from some bluffs that he might otherwise just fold the turn with, and some made hands that might not call a turn bet but will bet-fold if checked to.

I do agree though that it's kind of tough for him to fold with so little behind.

I don't think the shove folds a J

I doubt a J continues much unless he also has Kd/Qd with it (and can he even have KJo/QJo that often after preflop without history?), and he can't have AJo with a diamond, but I might be over-optimistic about my fold equity.

Originally Posted by kickass

The flush is not the nuts

Yeah, title should probably have been better. It's very tough for him to have _the_ nuts though, so I do block the more likely nutted combos.