Extracting value from FD OTF

iPoker - €0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: €0.80 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
Hero (CO): €4.40
BTN: €1.97 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 7)
SB: €1.44 (VPIP: 100.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
BB: €3.28 (VPIP: 19.05, PFR: 11.90, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 43)
UTG: €3.11 (VPIP: 20.37, PFR: 16.67, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 55)

SB posts SB €0.01, BB posts BB €0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: €0.03) Hero has A Q

fold, fold, Hero raises to €0.06, fold, fold, BB calls €0.04

Flop: (€0.13, 2 players) K J 5
BB bets €0.09, Hero calls €0.09

Turn: (€0.31, 2 players) 6
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (€0.31, 2 players) 3
BB bets €0.15, Hero raises to €0.42

OTF)
So I hit a my nut FD and think I have enough equity to call here. I don't want to fold or raise.

On review I notice this was a donk. His PF range is (19/12) 66, A8s-A5s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, A9o, KTo, QTo+ and I don't think this has changed as he could be bluffing with any of his missed hands. He connects 88% of the time and misses 12%. My equity is 54%.

OTT) So now V checks so I check behind to get a free look at the River card.

On review. V has a AF of 5 (only 43 hands though) so has Jx at best. Do I have enough implied odds to call if V bets 50% pot (16c).

Miss Flush -> -0.16 x 0.8 = - 0.13
Hit Flush -> 0.80 x 0.2 = 0.13 NO!!!

So I need to make 0.8 - 0.16 = 0.64 OTR to break even. NO!!!

I know that FD have poor implied odds as they are quite transparent so i don't think V will bet that OTR if its a heart so I would fold to a 50% bet. If given the odds to call then I would simply call.


Back to the hand. If I throw a silly small bet like 4c then that signals a FD whereas just checking behind could mean I have air so am happy with my check behind OTT.

OTR) Boom I hit and V tries to take the pot with possible Jx. I want to raise obviously but how much? I feel V could put in another 27c with Jx.

EDIT:

Being doing some study so I think my original calculation is wrong.

Let's assume V bets 16c OTT 50% pot

We have 25% pot odds

V has a set so we have 9 outs = 18% ( say 20%)

If we miss our flush we our EV is -0.16 x 0.8 = -0.13

If we hit our flush we need ( 0.65 x 0.2 = 0.13) to win 65c to break even. That is 65-47(31+16) = 18c OTR so we DEFINITELY call here because we think V will get more than that in OTR.

This post is a perfect example of how to study a hand.
State the hand.
State your assumptions.
Then, double- and triple-check everything.


***
9 outs OTT is (9/46 =) 19.6%
Your estimate of 20% is great.
EXCEPT:
You ignored your gutshot to broadway, which is 3 more outs.
12 outs OTT is (12/46 =) 26.1%


***
Let's look at your hypothetical situation OTT:
You assume Villain bets $0.16 into a pot of $0.31 with a set.
You have 12 outs and face that bet.
How much do you need in implied odds to call?
Let's call that unknown value X.
Assume you have 0 equity when you do not catch an out.

EV:
(26.1%)(X) + (73.9%)(-$0.16) >= $0
(26.1%)(X) - $.012 >= $0
X >= ($0.12)/(26.1%)
X >= $0.46

If Villain bets $0.16 OTT, and you call, then, ON AVERAGE, you need to get Villain to put an additional $0.46 into the pot OTR.
This is important, because Villain will sometimes call and sometimes fold OTR, and you need the average of his actions to be at least $0.46.
That last sentence belies that you do NOT have 0 equity when you miss, because there is at least some bluff value... but we assume that you have 0 equity to push our calculation errors into our favor.

OTT) So now V checks so I check behind to get a free look at the River card.

I don't like how you assume this is the best line without any justification except "free river card". I actually think checking this hand in particular is probably good however some worse flush draws are probably much better off being bet.


edit - sorry missed the bit about betting the turn, why would you bet 4c and not a more "normal" amount?


I doubt villain is calling many Jx and this definitely isn't the part of his range you want to target unless you think all his strong hands such as any flush will shove over you.

Thanks for your comments... I need to have a good think and come back to you if I need clarification, especially on the Maths...

Ok...so I haven't really understood MMM methodology, but I have been reading spoons excellent EV Calculation article and am going to give that scenario OTT another crack.

OTT there is 0.31 in the stack
I have NFD and a GS. Total of 13 outs (9+4)
If we hit we win. if we miss we lose.
We expect to stack our opponent with two pair or better (we are both deep). I estimate that OTT BB still has 101 possible combos of which 15 are two pair or better, so we stack BB 15% of the time.

BB bets 0.16

Outcomes:
1. We miss OTR 72% of the time (0.72 x-0.16 = -0.115)
2. We hit and don't get paid off (0.28 x 0.85 x 0.47 = 0.11)
3. We hit and we stack our opponent. (0.28 x0.15 x3.44 = 0.145)

Total EV = - 0.115 + 0.11 + 0.145 = + 0.14

Conclusion: Even though BB's chance of stacking off when we hit are small the fact that BB has so much behind gives us the implied odds to call.

Ok, so let's say BB has a set OTT and bets 0.31c into the pot and will stack off if we hit 100% of the time.

Outcomes:

1. We miss and lose. (0.72 x - 0.31 = -0.22)
2. We hit and win. (0.28 x 3.44 = 0.96)

EV = 0.96 - 0.22 = 0.74

Conclusion: Even though we are well and truly behind OTT, the implied odds are so great calling a pot sized bet is a must.

Ok, last thoughts for now....let's assume BB had 100BB behind him at the start of the hand.

total EV = (0.72 x -0.31) + ( 0.28 x 2.16) = 0.38 so call

now 40BB

total EV = (0.72 x -0.31) + (0.28 x 0.96) = 0.05 so call or fold here.

I'll recheck this after I post it.......

I think that betting the turn is going to be competitive in terms of EV with checking because of how weak his range looks. If he had a hand that mattered, he'd want to go ahead and bet the turn after leading the flop since the board is so draw-heavy.

Why don't you want to raise the flop? I want to raise, primarily to inflate the pot so I can make big value bets if I make the nuts, but I'm not arguing if villain folds.

Turn I'd bet, both as played and if I raised flop and he calls then checks turn. Now I'm very happy for him to fold.

River, well as played I'm tempted to shove at these stakes, I don't expect him to fold a flush or a set, and anything else should fold to even a minraise.

Originally Posted by DJAbacus

Ok...so I haven't really understood MMM methodology, but I have been reading spoons excellent EV Calculation article and am going to give that scenario OTT another crack.

It's the same equation as spoonitnow's approach.

Instead of assuming the value of implied odds, and using that to calculate the total EV,
I assumed that the total EV was non-negative, and I used that to calculate the value of implied odds.

Both equations are the same, I just chose a different value as the variable, and I did a bit of algebra to solve for that variable.

Originally Posted by DJAbacus

I have NFD and a GS. Total of 13 outs (9+4)

You counted the T twice. (It's both a flush out and a straight out.)

You have 12 outs.

I think Ong has a good question.

12 outs OTF is usually a great time to semi-bluff.

You can get a lot of 1-pair hands to fold.
Shipping it against a set is not terrible at ~30% equity.
Against 2-pair, you have ~40% equity.
The thing is: The range you give Villain OTF has no sets, and no 2-pairs in it.
You have over 60% equity against any reasonable continuing range Villain might have (given the range you've assigned to Villain).

***
The problem is that you assigned Villain's range based on those 19/12 VPIP/PFR stats.
I'm guessing that those are the average stats for Villain from all positions.
By using that value as rote, you are assuming that Villain has absolutely no positional awareness PRE.

Does it matter to Villain that he's facing your open from CO, and not say, an open from UTG?
Can you recall any recent history on the table which might indicate that Villain is playing a bit loose or tight (by HIS standards)?

Are we sticking to that range on Villain for PRE?