This post is a perfect example of how to study a hand.
State the hand.
State your assumptions.
Then, double- and triple-check everything.
***
9 outs OTT is (9/46 =) 19.6%
Your estimate of 20% is great.
EXCEPT:
You ignored your gutshot to broadway, which is 3 more outs.
12 outs OTT is (12/46 =) 26.1%
***
Let's look at your hypothetical situation OTT:
You assume Villain bets $0.16 into a pot of $0.31 with a set.
You have 12 outs and face that bet.
How much do you need in implied odds to call?
Let's call that unknown value X.
Assume you have 0 equity when you do not catch an out.
EV:
(26.1%)(X) + (73.9%)(-$0.16) >= $0
(26.1%)(X) - $.012 >= $0
X >= ($0.12)/(26.1%)
X >= $0.46
If Villain bets $0.16 OTT, and you call, then, ON AVERAGE, you need to get Villain to put an additional $0.46 into the pot OTR.
This is important, because Villain will sometimes call and sometimes fold OTR, and you need the average of his actions to be at least $0.46.
That last sentence belies that you do NOT have 0 equity when you miss, because there is at least some bluff value... but we assume that you have 0 equity to push our calculation errors into our favor.
Reply With Quote