Ok...so I haven't really understood MMM methodology, but I have been reading spoons excellent EV Calculation article and am going to give that scenario OTT another crack.
OTT there is 0.31 in the stack
I have NFD and a GS. Total of 13 outs (9+4)
If we hit we win. if we miss we lose.
We expect to stack our opponent with two pair or better (we are both deep). I estimate that OTT BB still has 101 possible combos of which 15 are two pair or better, so we stack BB 15% of the time.
BB bets 0.16
Outcomes:
1. We miss OTR 72% of the time (0.72 x-0.16 = -0.115)
2. We hit and don't get paid off (0.28 x 0.85 x 0.47 = 0.11)
3. We hit and we stack our opponent. (0.28 x0.15 x3.44 = 0.145)
Total EV = - 0.115 + 0.11 + 0.145 = + 0.14
Conclusion: Even though BB's chance of stacking off when we hit are small the fact that BB has so much behind gives us the implied odds to call.
Ok, so let's say BB has a set OTT and bets 0.31c into the pot and will stack off if we hit 100% of the time.
Outcomes:
1. We miss and lose. (0.72 x - 0.31 = -0.22)
2. We hit and win. (0.28 x 3.44 = 0.96)
EV = 0.96 - 0.22 = 0.74
Conclusion: Even though we are well and truly behind OTT, the implied odds are so great calling a pot sized bet is a must.
Ok, last thoughts for now....let's assume BB had 100BB behind him at the start of the hand.
total EV = (0.72 x -0.31) + ( 0.28 x 2.16) = 0.38 so call
now 40BB
total EV = (0.72 x -0.31) + (0.28 x 0.96) = 0.05 so call or fold here.
I'll recheck this after I post it.......
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