Floating - J7s - $16nl

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.16 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://flopturnriver.com/

saw flop | saw showdown

CO ($16.73)
Button ($20.08)
SB ($12.04)
BB ($12.13)
UTG ($31.89)
UTG+1 ($16.70)
MP1 ($32.56)
Hero (MP2) ($16)
MP3 ($16.40)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 7, J
3 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, 4 folds, BB calls $0.24

Flop: ($0.88) K, A, A (2 players)
BB bets $0.64, Hero calls $0.64

Turn: ($2.16) Q (2 players)
BB bets $0.96, Hero raises to $2.64, 1 fold

notes/reads - I have a note on SB, simply saying "fish". Otherwise, nothing of note. I've been at table for around 4 orbits, I don't think I've shown anything down.

I have no HUD on this computer because it's shit.

I open J7s partly out of boredom. I'm gonna look nitty from table pov so my open should get more repsect than average.

I float flop because villain donks AAK vs an apparent nit. It really feels to me that villain is betting for info, not for value or bluff. Therefore, I call to rep the ace, intending to bet/raise turn and river.

I'm trying to identify good floating spots. This seemed like one. Picking up equity on the turn was a bonus, but it wasn't the reason I raised. I raise any turn except K/A, which I'd be more careful with.

Why are you opening J7s in this position?

Why are you choosing to defend this hand when he donks?

Posted this by accident before I added any comments lol.

I've been quiet for 2 orbits or so, so my image is gonna be relatively tight.

Villain is unknown up until this hand, but when he bets flop I note that he donks AAK flop, and assume fish.

Anyone think I should just throw my hand away on flop? Obviously I'm calling to rep the ace, so I'm raising turn some 100% of the time. I assume he never donks an ace, so his range on flop for me is Kx 22-99, which I assume folds to turn and river pressure.

Am I value towning myself by floating this spot?

Originally Posted by ImSavy

Why are you opening J7s in this position?

Why are you choosing to defend this hand when he donks?

Because I've folded like the last 20 hands or so. I expect to be given a degree of respect for my open.

I defend vs his donk because I think he folds to turn raise a lot.

Isn't an excuse for opening. Fold pre and it's not even remotely close. And you just have absolutely no reason to defend this hand imo either. Why do you think he's folding a lot to a turn raise? Do you have anything to actually make you think this or is it juts speculative thinking to make calling the flop good in the first place? (Which arguably it isn't).

Why do you think he's folding a lot to a turn raise?

It simply comes down to the thought process on the flop...

Why the fuck is he betting an ace vs pfr on AAK?

Savy what do you suppose his donking range is? If you think he has Ax in his donking range, then why do you think that? I float flop precisely because I do not have Ax in his donking range, meaning his hand can't stand any heat.

The guys a fish but you're expecting him to have noted that you haven't opened in 20 hands.

He's a fish but never bets Ax here. He's a fish but you expect him to fold.

Also no idea what his range is but I have a rough idea what my range is and considering J7s is rubbish and really low down in my range I have no problem folding.

I also expect the fish to have more % of Ax in his range now he's bet the turn too.

I consider him a fish when he donks flop. Up until then he's unknown, so his fishiness plays no role in my open.

I realise opening pre is thin, and it's rare I'm opening MP with J7s, so this is not a concern for me.

I'm interested in whether this is a dumb float or not.

I also expect the fish to have more % of Ax in his range now he's bet the turn too.

Well, I had zero Ax in his range on flop, so it doesn't magically appear by turn. Either I'm wrong that he doesn't bet Ax, or he still doesn't have it.

I think he folded a king, but maybe he was double barrelling a crappy pair in the hope I fold a king.

Yeah, I'm folding pre all day long. Folding that flop as well.

Why are you expecting fish to be able to fold say KT-KQ on that board? Fish might not even fold JJ-QQ to a turn raise a lot of the time.

Do you always raise your AT+ here?

Do you always raise your AT+ here?

Sure I'm calling flop and raising turn with a lot of my Ax, especially vs a flop donk. I think my AK and AQ I just call turn with to let him fire off one more with his crap, but with AT/AJ yeah I think this is exactly the line I take vs a donk bet and turn barrel.

Why are you expecting fish to be able to fold say KT-KQ on that board? Fish might not even fold JJ-QQ to a turn raise a lot of the time.

I'm not targetting just his Kx. I'm targetting a range of 22+ Kx. I haven't crunched any numbers to see if he needs to fold all his Kx for me to run a profit here, but I'm assuming he has at least as many pocket pairs as he does Kx. So even if he never folds Kx to a turn raise, it's not like I'm losing a great deal of money so long as he's folding out his busted pairs. And once he starts folding out some of his Kx, well we're getting into profitable bluff territory.

And even if he does call down Kx, well that's gonna be an expensive but valuable note I just got on him.

I'm only concerned if he actually donks his Ax on flop, that's where my line falls apart I feel.

Does villain double barrel with weak/medium pairs a lot (especially given turn) compared to how often he double barrels w/ Kx or Ax?

Outside of folding preflop, and folding on the flop....

I would just call on the turn. You've now picked up so much equity with the 4th club. If villain does have an ace and decides to 3-bet, you might need to fold your hand now. I'd just call turn and hit your flush 20% of the time.

Edit: I realize you called the flop with the intention to bluff on the turn, but after you pick up a flush draw on the turn I think it is best to change plans (unless your are very sure villain can be moved off of their hand.

Does villain double barrel with weak/medium pairs a lot (especially given turn) compared to how often he double barrels w/ Kx or Ax?

Obviously I don't know this. This is pretty much highlighting where I'm taking the most risk... I need him to either double barrel pairs or fold a king to turn raise for this flop call to be even approaching a good idea.

As for calling turn, I don't like our draw all that much. We're hitting something like 1 in 5 or some shit. We're not getting the right price so would be relying on implied odds, while a range without Ax has a lot of foldable hands in it.

Way I see it, I'm either making a mistake taking Ax out of his range at flop, or you guys are making a mistake by not doing so lol.

Probably the former.

How many of you guys donk this flop with, say, A7o?

Pre is meh. Certainly worse hands you could be opening.

I don't love the flop float to this particular sizing. Now that we get to the turn and are offered this particular price I don't see the merit to raising here. I wouldn't raise any hand in my range on this turn at all.

You're the one making a mistake as you're assuming knowledge of something you have no idea about. And you've done it lots of times in this hand and have admitted so. Everyone else is saying they don't really know what villain has but taking all Ax out seems ridiculous. And I don't even think it's all that important tbh. Even if he has very little Ax you're still assuming you can get him to fold other hands which you don't know you can.

I think if you have reads that villain has no Ax here (you don't) and you have reads villain is taking shots at this board with medium strength hands/air (you don't) and reads that villain will actually fold to a raise (you don't) then it's ok. Although if those things are true then why don't we assume that villain will quite happily bet/fold a lot of the time on the river? Especially when we do pick up a lot of equity. And as we don't have any of those reads I think calling turn is obviously bad so it's not something I'm actually suggesting.

And J7s open on a lot of tables isn't thin it's really bad. Especially when it won't just be this hand, you'll be opening far too wide in spots because if J7s looks good enough so do lots of hands. Stop doing it.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Pre is meh. Certainly worse hands you could be opening.

If he's opening J7s here what % of hands do you think that actually is? And do you really think that figure is anywhere near to ok to be opening in MP?

And how much edge postflop do you think is required to make it +EV to play?

And the justification of "not played in 20 hands => open really wide" isn't good.

your hand could be any combo. makes no difference.
i like your ideea, but hate the spot/ villain/your reasoning for playing the hand.

Originally Posted by griffey24

Pre is meh. Certainly worse hands you could be opening.

I don't love the flop float to this particular sizing. Now that we get to the turn and are offered this particular price I don't see the merit to raising here. I wouldn't raise any hand in my range on this turn at all.

Ok so assuming you're making a stand vs villain you think never has an ace, you would call turn and raise any river? I can't see the merit of calling turn unless we're still planning to bluff when we miss.

And you point out his sizing makes this a poor floating spot; I'd argue the opposite, because this does not look like Ax to me. Do you think I'm making a mistake to take Ax out of his range?

savy, most of your post there is fair enough. I'm probably making quite a few mistakes post flop, hence me posting the hand for reactions, I acknowledge I'm making a lot of assumptions without any historical basis. But your assumption that I am opening too wide etc is flawed. You're assuming I'm always playing J7s like this, or always seduced by suitedness or whatever. That's not the case. I probably folded something similar from MP on the last orbit. I am playing a dynamic range, not a static range. That means I'm adjusting my range to suit current conditions. I won't stop doing this, not unless someone can explain to me why I should. I would argue that mixing it up means that I am less likely to slip in autopilot mode, seeing as I'm evaluating the merits of each spot individually, rather than simply looking at my hand and position and making a decision based on those two factors alone. It also makes it harder for villains to assign accurate ranges to me. Convince me I'm wrong. Convince me that I should just play a static range.

Savy - I agree, if J7s here is representative of the cutoff hand, where all better hands are being played, then yes he'll clearly be too wide MP. Presumably this is a spot that many of us have where once in a while we'll have a one off hand that deviates from the norm and we'll decide to open QJo UTG or something, but generally fold.

OngBonga - I just think if you don't put him on an ace, he's now giving you an excellent price on your draw. There was no clear draw on the flop, so if he's legitimately weak you will very often face a river check on this board and can steal it then. Raising the turn and facing a jam by Ax is a disaster.

What hands does raising the turn fold, that we are worried will otherwise be in a spot to win the hand if we just call?

It's a shame that you opened pre so wide and are over-adjusting to the conditions (particularly when it's doubtful anybody has noticed), as it's taken a way a lot from the discussion about taking creative lines post flop.

Personally, I think your post flop line with the non-Ax or Kx part of your range is going to be more profitable than folding flop. Villain has zero Ax when he takes this line on the flop and is clearly weak on the turn when he reduces his sizing like this. It's horrendously unbalanced of us, but it doesn't matter against this guy when he tells us he can find a fold-he might be a fish but it's highly doubtful even he will stack off with shitty kings and underpairs facing Heros line.